Simon McClean 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 🇬🇧 🇮🇪

From the Financial Times article seeking to estimate the economic cost of the Middle East war to US households, businesses, and the federal budget. #economy #markets #middleeastwar @FT

UAE ditches OPEC & Dollar Swaps go Global x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

"I can offer three possible explanations: 1. Mr. Market is seeing through all the noise and realizing that the war will be over by the end of May, and normal service will be restored. 2. Mr. Market loves AI more than he hates the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 3. Mr. Market is as clueless as he was in July 1914, September 1929, December 1972, August 2000, October 2007, and February 2020—all months when stocks reached highs shortly before reality struck devastating blows."

Good night to everyone:

The ECB and the BoE will NOT hike now

By far the best piece I have read on U.S. strategic options in Iran.

Every schoolboy in the UK should read George MacDonald Fraser's description of the Seaforth Highlanders mounting an attack on a Japanese-held village behind pipers playing Johnnie Cope.

Atomic veterans describe what nukes feel like “When the flash hit you, you could see the X-rays of your hand through your closed eyes.” “If I was looking at you now I would see all your bones, the blood vessels and everything.”

To the immortal memory of Colonel Arnaud Beltrame of the Gendarmerie nationale who died on this day eight years ago. He selflessly exchanged himself for a hostage, putting himself in the hands of a terrorist who had already murdered three people. It cost him his life.

3-17-26 Oil Doesn’t Crash Markets… Earnings Do The market is reacting to rising oil and gasoline prices. The key issue isn’t just oil itself—it’s how it hits the consumer directly. Consumers are already stretched. Higher gas prices = real cash drain. That money doesn’t come from nowhere; it comes out of other spending. Less discretionary spending → weaker demand → pressure on companies. This is a chain reaction: 1. Oil up → Gas prices up 2. Consumers spend more on fuel 3. Cut spending elsewhere 4. Company revenues weaken 5. Earnings (E) drop 6. Market valuations compress 7. Prices fall Markets don’t fall just because of oil—they fall when earnings get hit. So, what really matters now is the timeline of this event: 1. Scenario A – Short-lived spike (< 30 days) will have minimal impact, and markets will look through it quickly. 2. Scenario B – Medium duration (2–4 months) will increase market pressure as oil prices will feed into inflation data, and the Fed may need to pause or shift policy. 3. Scenario C – Long duration (4–6+ months) will increase recession risk dramatically and lead to 10–20% market drawdowns, with the full earnings compression cycle kicking in. Until we get a clear picture, sell into rallies, raise cash, rebalance risk, and be cautious about exposure to consumer-sensitive areas. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet

Oh hello

This is a math joke.

The US dollar index above 99 reminds us that the dollar is the main haven in challenging times, and its position as the global reserve currency is unchallenged. via Bloomberg

LEOPARD 3 WINS THE CARIBBEAN 600 🏆🐆 The Royal Ocean Racing Club is delighted to confirm that the Farr 100 Leopard 3 has been declared the overall winner under IRC for the 2026 RORC Caribbean 600. Full story: ow.ly/pkM850Yn6x1 #RORCracing #Caribbean600 #Leopard3

Stop Sine

UBS Says 15% Defaults Private Credit x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

🇺🇸 *US 4Q GDP RISES ANNUALIZED 1.4% Q/Q; EST. +2.8% - BBG *US 4Q GOVT SPENDING FELL AT 5.1% PACE, MOST SINCE 2020 *US 4Q FEDERAL SPENDING FELL AT FASTEST PACE SINCE 1972

🇺🇸 Valuation With the CAPE10 ratio hovering near rarely seen highs, the market is sending a warning signal. Past cycles point to negative real returns ahead. In other words, valuations this stretched rarely end well historically 👉 isabelnet.com/?s=S%26P+500 h/t @LanceRoberts $spx

Current factor volatility and quant damage is liable to touch off a de-grossing that not many are prepared for. Precious metals seem to have touched off a VAR shock that now risks rippling into cross asset vol in what I have previously described as Release the Kraken or 'Rolling Crackups.' The requisite de-grossing typically ends one way when so few investors are holding cash (or risk insurance): Liquidation. Then just wait until Treasury volatility gets in on the action.

My dad (Richard Feynman) had a side hustle doing industrial consulting. He'd spend a few hours visiting a company, talking to the engineers, looking at stuff, and then maybe have a good suggestion. Sometimes he would bring his son along. I only recall one of his suggestions, but it made the company he was consulting for way better off, so I guess his exorbitant consulting fees were worth it. We could have been wealthier if he had done it systematically, but he didn't want to be organized about looking for jobs, so it just happened when someone asked.