Mr.Lucid

Claude: Looking at history and basic fiscal math: A general threshold where governments typically hit a death spiral is when debt servicing costs reach ~40-45% of tax revenue (currently at 23%). At that point, there's not enough money left for basic services and military.

@autonomousxai @burrytracker U have no idea the time horizon for these positions tho. Information is information. I agree tho and I definitely wouldn’t trade alongside but it’s informative never the less

@burrytracker Such bad takes. 13F digging is a waste of time. This is as of March 31st, during the Iran war, when semis hadn't even run as much and buying protection made more sense.

Breaking: Leopold Aschenbrenner just filed his Q1 2026 13F Here's everything you need to know about his recent 13F Top 10 positions: 1. VanEck Semiconductor ETF $SMH [Put] — $2.04B 2. Nvidia $NVDA [Put] — $1.57B 3. Oracle $ORCL [Put] — $1.07B 4. Broadcom $AVGO [Put] — $1.01B 5. Advanced Micro Devices $AMD [Put] — $969M 6. Bloom Energy $BE — $879M 7. SanDisk $SNDK — $724M 8. Micron $MU [Put] — $584M 9. CoreWeave $CRWV — $556M 10. Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM [Put] — $535M New positions: • $SMH, $NVDA, $ORCL, $AVGO, $AMD, $MU, $TSM, $ASML, $INTC, $GLW — all puts • $MU [Call] — $422M • $TSM [Call] — $355M • $SNDK [Call] — $389M Biggest adds: • CleanSpark $CLSK: +648% shares • Riot Platforms $RIOT: +87% shares Biggest trims: • CoreWeave $CRWV [Call]: -83% shares • Bloom Energy $BE: -36% shares Full exits: • Intel $INTC [Call] — was $747M • Lumentum $LITE — was $479M • EQT Corp $EQT — was $133M • Tower Semiconductor $TSEM — was $85M Summary: He kept his AI infrastructure longs and opened $8.45B in new puts against tech and semiconductor

@RavePit_Com @eshanbuilds @KobeissiLetter Difference is me and u aren’t involved. There’s no pressure, no liquidity, no derivatives, no earnings call, no high frequency trading, no nothing😂

What's the difference.😂 Your value is what the market is willing to pay. All the market is saying for an AI company that has significant legs left, is that, they are willing to pay twice the multiple of an older org with weaker legs... And absolutely nothing wrong with that approach..

BREAKING: Anthropic's market-implied pre-IPO valuation surges to a record $1.4 trillion, rising another +40% in 24 days. This puts Anthropic's implied valuation up +1,067% since October 2025, per onchain pre-IPO trading data. Pre-IPO instruments trading onchain on Jupiter, backed 1:1 by SPV exposure, are providing a real-time proxy for the company’s implied IPO valuation. The surge comes amid reports that Anthropic's annualized revenue has surged from $100 million in 2023 to $45 billion today. Over the last 12 months alone, Anthropic's annualized revenue has risen +1,400%. We are witnessing a historic technological revolution.

@CryptoJebb @HODLtoONE Honestly, the model works. If btc can do it’s thing, obviously.. Just buy whatever ur investment profile desires. Need money soon? -> STRC. Need it for retirement? -> Btc or MSTR. The only math beyond the conviction is if your in between those two options. That’s not easy tho

@HODLtoONE Lol

Saylor: “We may sell Bitcoin” Retail: “Panics” Saylor: Buys 250,000 Bitcoin for $55k/coin. Retail: *cries*

@burrytracker @unusual_whales Means they gonna upgrade the camera again. Cuz everyone gaf…

@unusual_whales What does this even mean

Apple, $AAPL, is testing Airpods with AI-powered cameras, per Bloomberg.

@DDBlakeFischer @fiscal_ai I think “the vast majority” being from SBC is a stretch but I digress. I’m merely defending the post. They enable u to do analysis on their platform. They want to hear the communities opinion. Ie. u pointing this crucial fact out. Can’t expect them to do the analysis for you, yk?

@TheLucidTrader @fiscal_ai Statistics applied out of context are misleading, and it’s irresponsible of an account posing as a financial authority/influence. Don’t post a bloated FCF multiple unless you also point out that the vast majority of the FCF is sbc.

Value play or value trap? EV/FCF: 8.35x $DUOL

@tachyosa_X @sama Ever heard of sarcasm 😭

never thought id be watching F1 via the kids broadcast cannot imagine being happier

@DDBlakeFischer @fiscal_ai I mean the multiple is just a statistic tho. Like I get that u think it’s the wrong metric to look at. But it doesn’t make it misleading. The ratio is set by the market. The post is wondering your take on it. They just asked a question lol.

@TheLucidTrader @fiscal_ai Duolingo has nowhere near the amount of earnings power this multiple suggests. No serious analyst would use this chart to express the valuation of this company.

@a_living_fossil @fiscal_ai Why do u say that? Genuinely curious

@DDBlakeFischer @fiscal_ai How is it misleading?

@fiscal_ai Is there any point to this image other than to be misleading?

@LynAldenContact Makes sense. But why did they deploy so much in 2010? Lot of claims plus allocation? Or is the 60% avg not actually necessary?

Since Berkshire is an insurer, it needs a lot of cash on hand, and so ratio charts tend to be more informative than nominal charts. Berkshire's cash amount as a share of enterprise value has averaged 24% over 20+ years, whereas today it's nearly twice that at 44%.

@techleaks_ @AltcoinDaily Facts. Been happening since inception. Btc hash rate also builds perfect competition

@AltcoinDaily idiot take. but lets play it out. lets say nations start enforcing climate laws to limit energy consumption. do miners go out of business?? some. but the biggest miners will not just accept death. they will MOVE operations to the nations without those dumb rules.

JUST IN: Professor Steve Keen who predicted the 2008 financial crash now is warning people "Bitcoin is going to zero."

@MatthewSchrager @chamath R u restarted? He literally told u to not bet against AI…

@chamath So if you're out on equities, what are you in on?

don't worry. we are moving up and to the left. the days of 3-5% equity yields don't make sense sense if AGI is real. it isn't the safe harbor you think it is...

@TCkkkkk8410 @StealthQE4 Only thing that makes sense

@StealthQE4 Nah he’s just addicted to pain meds

In his defense he probably lost a lot of money in the market this week. Seriously, it’s a shame that he cant shake his demons. They keep following him He lost 16 years of his career since his divorce which he never recovered from. Cost him a few majors. I’m cheering for him.

I'm not sure trading could be any simpler. Cash in your wins quickly but let your winners run, and cut your losses fast but give your losers duration.

@parry_troy @BarbellFi Sounds like a Synthetic CDO 😂

@BarbellFi Tell you what. Let me borrow a million dollars, I will pay you back $40,000 per year for 20 years and $400,000 when I cash in the Bond in 20 years. You will make 20% on your investment in the end.

20 Year Treasury yield now up to 5% You can buy $1 million of these bonds Collect $50k/year for 20 years Pay no state and local taxes Then get $1 million back in 20 years Why aren’t more people doing this? 🤔

@StrataSports_ @stoolpresidente Thanks for defining the sour grapes falllacy u pos. Same goes with @stoolpresidente

@stoolpresidente The World Series is 10X a bigger deal than the wbc to be real

Good for Venezuela. It def means more to them. I would have liked to win but I will lose absolutely no sleep tonight. I wouldn’t trade 100 USA WBC titles for 1 Red Sox World Series.

@benjamincowen @rawsalerts Why even entertain this kind of tweet Ben?

@rawsalerts You either include the zeros or you say trillion. You don’t use both simultaneously

🚨#BREAKING: The United States national debt has officially surpassed 39,000,000,000,000.00 trillion dollars

@L08669220 @quantscience_ @grok Woah grok is only for premium users now? That’s gotta be super recent

@quantscience_ @grok tell me why this would and wouldn't work

Hedge funds are worried. Stat arb is now available to the masses. Some guy just published the most in-depth pairs trading strategy I've ever seen. 100% free

@jollygreenmoney But it only pumped cuz of a successful buildout of a 72B parameter model. Chatgpt's newest model is ~10T. The valuation is already priced into the proposition. Everything else is speculation and/ or news. Nonetheless, I do like the idea of a decentralized cloud storage.

Are you guys paying attention yet? SN3 Templar on $TAO is on 🔥