The Stock Doc

"Our supply chain work on Long Term Agreements (LTAs) across the memory industry suggests that up to 30% of DDR volumes industry-wide will be soon locked in at pricing that is just slightly below current levels" HOLY SMOKES

To add more: Bill would mesh well with Dwarkesh’s inquisitive style as he is a systems-level thinker poised at the intersection of AI. He often speaks on how the physical AI infra buildout is global and structural from his macro view of Semi logistics. His company sits at a crucial place in engineering and can speak cogently and educationally on SerDes, optical networking, energy-efficient cables, and explain copper and optical, something that is poorly understood by the market

@dwarkesh_sp Bill Brennan: CEOof $CRDO Would love more in-depth dive on the interconnect roadmap and choke points as I feel like outside of CPO/photonics this is an underappreciated area of DC buildout

Who should I interview on my podcast? Open to more AI, but also to random history/econ/etc professors that I might not have heard of before.

Hot take: if you’re a serious investor, use debt strategically to maintain as much cash flow as possible to route into retirement accounts and brokerage, especially in earliest years and particularly in times when rates are relatively low. This strategy changed my life. Also, refi everything when rates drop significantly. Don’t pay off a 2.75% mortgage of 6+ figures when you can compound that at double digits in the market.

@P_Remarks I, for one, am quite surprised. Good news days out from market open??

@TradexWhisperer I appreciate the reply. I specifically was wondering though within the same cohort why $WDC and $STX would command a higher premium? Is the market pricing that they believe the HDD oligopoly is more stable and time-tested in your opinion?

@The_StockDoc Scarlet Letter from history. The memory cycle's boom/bust stigma is baked into every multiple. The market hasn't updated its assumptions yet.

Same sector. Completely different multiples. $MU 8x Forward P/E $SNDK 10x Forward P/E $WDC 28x Forward P/E $STX 30x Forward P/E A 16x re-rate gets $MU at $1600 $SNDK at $2500 And they would still be the two cheapest names in the group by a mile.

Bucco’s guide to making $400k+: So, your dumb ass has been lucky enough to stumble into making a 1% salary. Congratulations, you’re at the doorstop of generational wealth (or early retirement). Here’s how to not fuck it up 1. Assume this isn’t permanent: The first thing you need to recognize is most people don’t keep their 1% salaries. There’s a lot of luck, and variable comp, that usually goes into that kind of paycheck. So have some humility and live like it ain’t permanent, because it usually ain’t. Which brings me to point #2 2. Live below your means: Most people who start making fat paychecks start racking up fat credit card bills. But if you follow my first rule you won’t do that. At least for the first 3 years you will live like you aren’t making a lot of money. You will save. A lot. This is a gift to future you 3. Take care of yourself: If you are making this much you are usually working very hard. So take care of yourself. Invest in your brain and your body and your health. It is a marathon, not a sprint, as they say. And one of the reasons people don’t maintain their high paychecks is because they burn out 4. Pay it forward: Fate has smiled on you. You are not only obligated to pay it forward, but it is the right thing to do. One day you may experience something bad, unlucky, and catastrophic. People will remember that you did not neglect others while it was your moment in the sun and they will come to your support. Be kind, especially when you don’t need to 5. Maintain perspective: You are not better than anyone because you make a lot of money. There are many ways to be rich. Be sure that you stay humble, and continue to invest in your friends, families, relationships and health. Or you might one day find yourself with a full bank account and an empty life Follow these rules and I assure you that the odds of living a prosperous life will tip heavily in your favor

@patrick_oshag Adam Foroughi. The two of you would be awesome

Talking to the same investor/founder/expert at regular intervals is one of my favorite things to do Who else would you like to see become a frequent guest?

@666crayola @NYDailyNews

@NYDailyNews Vaxxed

Kyle Busch passed out in racing simulator before dying in hospital nydailynews.com/2026/05/22/kyl…

The most interesting $APP find of the day, coming directly from the Applovin cult is that they released a $PINS like looking app called Gist. It's invite only (for now) so hard to say what is this is really about, but definitely worth looking into apps.apple.com/us/app/gist-li…

@aryanagab 💯 He is the real deal. I’m not even at all concerned about the stock. Price always eventually catches up to fundamentals

@The_StockDoc love seeing more of this dude. underrated tech CEO

Great speech. One thing that stuck out to me was Adam’s humility. He reminded me of a quote that I love: “Embarrassment is the cost of entry. If you aren't willing to look like a foolish beginner, you'll never become a graceful master.” We live in a time where what you see is often not what you get. People go out of their way to self-aggrandize, inflating their own importance and accomplishments. Simply put, their bark is worse than their bite. Adam is the opposite. $APP has one of the most stellar financial profiles in the entire publicly-traded market, and has no end in sight for its phenomenal growth. In fact, it is just beginning to dip its toes into the consumer / e-Commerce TAM which is going to be a MASSIVE player for AppLovin in coming years. What I’m saying is, in short, Adam is the kind of CEO that I trust with my hard-won finances. He is tireless in his efforts for self-improvement, always working like the competition is two steps ahead. He has led $APP to best-in-class margins that are so juicy it warrants a double-take. And there is blue sky ahead. Mark my words, AppLovin is markedly undervalued and will rerate massively to the upside. I put my money where my mouth is. Very long $APP shares and LEAPS.

A lot of doubters are being silenced, and will continue to be. We are still just in the beginning…

KIS comment on NVIDIA Vera CPU: On today’s conference call, NVIDIA stated that it expects the standalone Vera CPU market to reach $20 billion in FY2027. The unit price of Grace CPU is estimated at around $3,000–$5,000. Since Vera is the successor to Grace and is optimized for AI agentic workloads, we expect Vera to carry a higher ASP of roughly $5,000–$8,000 per unit. Assuming a Vera CPU ASP of $8,000, a $20 billion market would imply 2.5 million CPUs. It remains unclear whether standalone Vera CPU sales will include the same SoCAMM capacity as NVL72. However, assuming the same capacity is applied, each Vera CPU would have 8 SoCAMM slots. Assuming 192GB per module, SoCAMM capacity per Vera CPU would be 1,536GB. Therefore, FY2027 SoCAMM demand for Vera CPU would be: 2.5 million CPUs × 1,536GB = 3.84 billion GB, or 30.72 billion Gb. CY2026, which broadly overlaps with NVIDIA’s FY2027, SoCAMM supply from the three major DRAM makers is estimated at 30 billion Gb. Therefore, combined SoCAMM demand from NVIDIA’s standalone Vera CPU sales and VR NVL72 sales already appears likely to exceed the annual supply capacity of 30 billion Gb. In our previous in-depth report, assuming CY2027 VR NVL72 shipments of 100,000 servers, we estimated the SoCAMM TAM at 44 billion Gb based on 192GB modules. If additional SoCAMM demand from standalone Vera CPU sales is added, the CY2027 SoCAMM TAM could exceed 80 billion Gb. An annual 80 billion Gb of LPDDR5 would be nearly equivalent to the annual LPDDR5 TAM used for smartphones. The shortage of LPDDR5 — and of DRAM overall — is likely to intensify further over time. $MU $DRAM

@SemiAnalysis_ I see a lot of purple…

they also include some nice pictures of some GB200 NVL72 racks in COLOSSUS II (4/5)

SpaceX just filed their S1. SemiAnalysis research is cited! (1/5) 🧵

@JonahLupton Also lends to show how analyst predictions and PTs are largely noise. Follow the business!

This graph/chart for $NVDA is just hilarious... it shows where the sell side analysts were 3 years ago on their forward estimates... this was around the time that $NVDA started to crush numbers from the H100. Back in May 2023, analysts were looking for $58B in FY2027 revenues and $69B in FY2028 revenues. $NVDA is currently in the middle of their FY2027 year but it looks like revenues will be at least $385B which means the analysts were only off by a factor of 6.6x The current estimates for FY2028 are $500B and probably going higher after this earnings report so they were only off by a factor of 7.2x 3 years ago, I'm not sure any of us were expecting $NVDA to be doing $90B+ per quarter in FY2027 and $125B+ per quarter in FY2028 but it's just a good reminder that the sell side will always be late and too conservative on the biggest thematic bull markets. Still blows my mind that a $5.5 trillion company is growing revenues at 80% YoY

@aleabitoreddit x.com/the_stockdoc/s…

There's some things in the market that don't make much sense. $RDDT is the perfect example post-earnings. One of the most profitable names right now with high growth... But if it's related to software or not burning $1T+ in AI capex, markets don't care?

@OnodaCapital @Longviewres $LITE is def not a shitco

@Longviewres Yeah -- he's long lite and cohr though. prob talking about aaoi

Gavin mentioned low quality AI companies that hyperscalers hate but stocks 10x bc of retail hype. Who’s he talking about?

Took starter positions in $FPS and $INOD. Great earnings reports. Happy to give more commentary if people are interested in these names.