Tim Oren

3/ The argument from Senate leadership: “We sent a previous, weaker E-Verify bill to State Affairs so this one should too.” That weak bill was political cover: weak enforcement, full of loopholes, and exactly what Big Ag and cheap construction wanted.

🚨 ATTENTION IDAHO 🚨 Swamp creatures aren’t just a DC problem— they’re all over Boise, too. The Idaho House passed two of our immigration bills: H700, to make hiring an illegal alien a misdemeanor; and H704, implementing e-verify. But our State Senate Pro Tem @kelly_a_anthon sent them to the State Affairs Committee, run by a bunch of squish moderates and the place that conservative bills in Idaho go to die. Under Anthon’s leadership, another bill to combat illegal immigration also died on the Senate side: Our bill requiring local law enforcement to negotiate 287(g) agreements with ICE. Even now, our bills to audit state agencies for tax dollars spent on illegal aliens and audit the number of refugees that have come to our state remain stuck in the Senate. Since Anthon chairs a PAC that takes lobbyist money and donates it back to the squish Republicans that he places in committee chairmanships, I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. It’s all happening according to Anthon’s plan. If you are in Idaho and want to rid our state of illegal immigration, tell Sen. Anthon and the rest of the cheap-labor Republicans to stop blocking good immigration bills.

🚨 BREAKING NEWS! 🚨 An employer in American Falls, ID just publicly testified against himself AND Sen. Jim Guthrie, confessing to BOTH OF THEM profiting from illegal alien labor. 🔥 Attention: @ICEgov @DHSgov @RealTomHoman Call: 866-DHS-2-ICE Tip form: ice.gov/webform/ice-ti…

You barley need ICE agents if you tax remittances, punish the employers of illegal, and deny them banking End healthcare, education, and welfare for illegals and the scam is over Everyone knows this, including the Trump admin

One of my favorite things on the internet was @slatestarcodex writing about Cost Disease; basically, how the costs to do anything have basically tripled, completely disconnected from labor costs, material inputs, or inflation. No economists have an explanation for why costs have gone up so much, it seems like some dark force is acting on the US economy so that - while the Europeans can build lavish infrastructure, the US is stuck at 5-6x costs to build literally everything... and this underpins our fundamental debates about everything. The Interstate Bridge is an excellent example. Back when this was killed the 2nd or 3rd time (I forgot which), the *studies* performed to explore the new bridge cost ~$200 Million. I did the back of the napkin math and those studies cost 3x, inflation adjusted, what the original entire bridge cost to build. I think the dark force economists cannot detect is a combination of things, primarily though? Grift. You need to pay off the environmentalists, you need to pay off the labor unions, you need to pay off local interest groups. Those are the grifts that use social concerns as a cover... But the real grift is the Professional Managerial Class. All the various technical entities involved in the production of anything are 3 people who know anything about the subject encased in small to large organizations where 80% of the headcount has nothing to do with the task at hand. It is a baked-in, structural grift that underpins almost the entirety of the American economy. Vast swaths of the white collar economy are basically riding the coattails of a small - eroding - segment of SMEs who do actual work.

In other good news, the House voted against House Bill 725, which would have grown the Office of Government Insurance at the expense of the private market. It was killed in a 30-40 vote! By allowing cities to join the state insurance pool, the bill invited adverse selection, where only the most expensive, high-risk groups join to save money. This already occurred when the pool was expanded for schools, and it resulted in higher overall costs. Cities already have the option to use private insurance, so there was no reason for the government to compete with private businesses and take on more financial risk.

Idaho dairy runs on 90% foreign-born labor (much of it illegal), costing taxpayers $58M a year in subsidies. Meanwhile dairies in Pennsylvania operate with legal workers, good wages, and real profits. The dairy lobby is fighting hard to kill Idaho’s E-Verify bill (HB 704). It passed the House but is sitting in Senate State Affairs with no hearing. Over 70% of Idahoans support action on illegal labor. Let the people’s representatives vote, @kelly_a_anthon.

House Bill 660, which would require local law enforcement to verify and record the immigration status of anyone who is arrested, passed the Idaho House in a 40-30 vote! On to the Senate. HB 660 will help combat illegal immigration in Idaho by increasing transparency. Idahoans will finally have access to the data regarding illegal immigration and its impact on our criminal justice system.

@chiproytx @Raul_Labrador 👆

Texas should move to overturn the Plyler v. Doe decision that mandates taxpayers fund education for those here illegally. We must end every incentive, magnet, and program that undermines our sovereignty and the rule of law.

Let's unpack this.. What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz? What if this war is really about ships & tariffs? I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong. We need to go back to the drawing boards. That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.

@SenFettermanPA My illegal students in Idaho were able to obtain driver’s licenses in Washington State. They pass them out like candy. We need a verified citizen identification for voting.

Meanwhile @IACI1974 is texting this gaslighting message to constituents in District 32. IACI is the lobbying arm for major corporate interests in Big Ag, dairy, and construction. They claim Rep. Bingham supports immigration enforcement. Her actual voting record: NO on every enforcement bill this session.

I'm leaving names off at this point, because both the donor (left side) and candidate (right) clusters have some data quality issues, which I'm working through. More to follow... 4/4

My latest analysis of the 2026 Idaho Legislature is up at Gem State Chronicles. Below, a short 🧵on a new project. x.com/gemstatechron/…

Here's an example from early work on contributions to 2026 legislature primary candidates (R only):

...contributors, like politicians, tend to operate in clusters (as well as fund dark money operations). One of the most useful graphics for showing flows of all sorts, and particularly useful for $$ is the Sankey diagram: grokipedia.com/page/Sankey_di… 2/

I'll be looking at patterns of campaign contributions as the primary season kicks off. Ultimately, I'll be relating them to the voting alliances we're seeing now, but I'm starting out looking at how donors group together. With low $$ limits on Idaho campaign contributions... 1/

With only a few weeks left in session, Idahoans deserve clarity. Will HB 704, Idaho’s E-Verify illegal labor enforcement bill, receive a hearing in Senate State Affairs? @kelly_a_anthon voters across Idaho are asking whether this bill will be allowed a vote before the session ends.