Timothy Nugent

1.3K posts

Timothy Nugent

Timothy Nugent

@TimothyWNugent

I am a Christian who dislikes both political parties and believes the majority of politicians are corrupt.

White Mountains of Arizona. Katılım Kasım 2021
48 Takip Edilen76 Takipçiler
Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
My house increased in value by 10k this year. It is an unrealized profit. My net worth increased because if it. I can even potentially borrow more with a HELOC becaus of that. However, I do NOT have an extra $10k cash in my bank account I can spend, therefore it is not profit until I realize the gain by selling the house. If Google sells its equity of Anthtopic, only THEN will it be profit.
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Peter H. Diamandis, MD
Peter H. Diamandis, MD@PeterDiamandis·
Alphabet made $62.6 billion in profit last quarter. Up 81%. The AI payoff isn't coming. It's here.
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Timbo
Timbo@Timboo·
Incorrect. Nearly half of the $62.6 billion profit did not come from search ads, cloud services, or any of its products. It came from marking up the value of equity it owns in Anthropic an AI-only company and SpaceX where $250B+ of its value is from xAI, an AI company 😂 So, yes, directly from AI.
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Endru ✪
Endru ✪@0neStockMan·
@scoochamenze @FirstSquawk The US does actually have an excess in light crude because it doesn’t the capacity to refine light crude. Please do some research before declaring others “dumb”
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First Squawk
First Squawk@FirstSquawk·
Empty oil tankers are heading to the US in large numbers to load crude and gas, driven by global supply disruptions. Reports suggest 100+ tankers are moving toward US ports as buyers shift away from Middle East supply risks.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@rickjeff78 There is, especially with the crappy job market, but it isn't "quick! Lay off everyone!" Demand destruction, it's more, "Let’s skip going out to eat and just go to the lake for vacation."
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@mattvsmith @VladTheInflator Anything the government subsidized costs more. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac buying all homes from banks means banks can give out loans to people who can't afford it with down-payments at 5% ir less. That opens up demand to almost everyone while supply remains low.
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Matthew Smith
Matthew Smith@mattvsmith·
@VladTheInflator And very few of us in Phoenix can afford to buy one. I’m not sure how the law of supply and demand got so skewed (ok, the government and the Fed) but it did. Even if I sold my house and bought one $100K cheaper, my payment would be the same, if not higher. It’s jacked up.
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Darth Powell
Darth Powell@VladTheInflator·
Phoenix Arizona has 540% more home for sale than the bottom of the Planned Demic. over 27,000 homes for sale
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Financelot
Financelot@FinanceLancelot·
Still expecting a big drop in oil, whether it's from Trump opening the SPR or global lockdowns. The question is when?
Financelot tweet media
Financelot@FinanceLancelot

Market and oil crashes have always been directly correlated. If the Iran escalation is the trigger, then counterintuitively oil should fall to $50 over "growth fears" and economic lockdowns. The real risk here is what happens after that scenario. With Powell still the head of the Federal Reserve until May 15, the obvious move in the face of a crash would be quantitative easing (QE) like 2020. The problem with that is the liquidity being printed would occur when there's a 32% energy supply shortfall. So instead of QE fixing the economic problem, it would make it significantly worse by funneling the liquidity into the largest oil price spike in our lifetimes. As I've said before, given all the U.S. energy blockades and destruction of refineries in Russia, Australia, South America, etc. I believe starving the world of oil is the entire plan to cause a global sovereign debt crisis. By creating a massive oil shortage, the U.S. destroys growth & sucks all the Dollars out of the global economy, back into the United States. This creates a scenario where countries must sell their U.S. treasuries significantly below face value in order to continue financing their debt. Oil and the Dollar $DXY have historically been inversely correlated, but this shock could be engineered similar to 2022 where the both oil and the Dollar head to 160 at the same time.

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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@calvinfroedge Blocking you. Really bad click bait. I'm not a fan of Trump, but that is not what he said.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@Vgbrevik @jessebday No, it wouod lead to demand destruction and recession. During recessions, money is worth more, not less as deflation begins. Unfortunatelythe Fed always steps in and prints, immediately reversing deflation.
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Viggo
Viggo@Vgbrevik·
@jessebday Nobody wants oil at 300$. It would be Armageddon and money will be made worthless.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@grok @AnnaEconomist @grok how likely will they be able to increase oil production to meet demand by mid July, when our reserves are assumed to run out? Also, is that assumption correct still, or do higher exports mean we reach it sooner?
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Historically, conventional oil responded slowly to price spikes. After the 1973 OPEC embargo (prices quadrupled in months), US production had no quick ramp—new fields took 5–10 years to develop due to exploration, permitting, and infrastructure (Alaska North Slope output only surged in 1977). Shale/tight oil changed that: post-2010s booms showed small/mid-sized operators adding rigs and output in 3–9 months after sustained higher prices, per drilling data and elasticity studies. In this case, that aligns with initial North American production starting late June 2026.
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Anna Wong
Anna Wong@AnnaEconomist·
My model using post-15 supply elasticities says we start seeing active oil rigs increase by July.
Giovanni Staunovo🛢@staunovo

Halliburton Co. sees early signs of a resurgence in North American oilfields as the Iran war disrupts Middle East production and drives up prices. The Houston-based company has a nearly-full second-quarter schedule in North America as demand heats up from small and mid-sized oil firms, which tend to respond faster to rising prices, Chief Operating Officer Shannon Slocum said during a call with analysts Tuesday. The next step, he said, would be companies adding drilling rigs. “In North America, I see clear signs that we are in the early innings of a recovery,” Halliburton Chief Executive Officer Jeff Miller said in the company’s first-quarter earnings statement. #oott bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@grok @AnnaEconomist @grok based upon typical historical response time, how long after oil prices spike does new production come online? Use the 1970s oil embargo and other examples.
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Grok
Grok@grok·
No, not all rigs come online in 3 months—or at the same time. The typical 3-6 month timeline (planning to first production) applies per well for small/mid-sized shale operators. I used ~4 months average, so earliest new output starts around late June 2026. It ramps gradually as more operators respond; models show active rigs increasing by July.
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026. In North American shale oilfields (the context here), small/mid-sized operators can move fast with existing leases. From planning/permitting to first production on a new well typically takes 3-6 months: site prep and permitting (weeks), drilling (2-4 weeks), completion/fracking/flowback (3-6 weeks). Adding ~4 months average to Feb 28 lands around late June 2026 for initial new production. Rigs increasing by July (per models) would accelerate that.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@a34091148 @morgan_downey No, we are a net petroleum products exporter. We still import more oil than we produce. However, we export aton of diesel, gas, and jet-A fuel.
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Morgan Downey
Morgan Downey@morgan_downey·
Oil over the next 50 days could quadruple. This is what is known as a Minsky market instability moment. 1973 Oil Crisis. Markets knew of rising Arab-Israeli tensions and potential embargo risks, yet prices stayed relatively stable ($3/bbl) until the October 1973 Yom Kippur War and OPEC embargo triggered a sudden quadrupling to $12/bbl by December 1973. Repricing at the last minute amid known supply threats and low buffers. Oil today around $90 is a similar Minsky-style setup. Relatively (yes, in this context an occasional $10-15 daily move is not enough) calm market behavior in the face of massive visible risk. There is not one market participant unaware of the risk. And yet it remains relatively unpriced. Just like 1973. $200-400+ rapid demand destruction oil prices may be required within weeks of today due to the Hormuz closure.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@FreddyBarnzZz @morgan_downey They use diesel to ship all of the data center equipment over from Asia. Every chip, cable, server rack, cooling, battery backup is made in Asia. Even without new buildout, you have to replace your servers yearly in stages. They only last like 3 to 5 years.
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Fred Barnett
Fred Barnett@FreddyBarnzZz·
@morgan_downey nah i’ll just buy tech stocks. they’ll octuple. no one uses oil anymore. this isn’t the 1970’s.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
Trump is keeping the price of a barrel of oil artificially low by shorting futures, and mass exporting oil, diesel, jet A, and gas to the world. Unfortunately, that is OUR reserve of oil, which is being used to make petroleum products cheaper for the rest of the world. When we run out, gas spikes to $8 a gallon and diesel to $10. A barrel of physical oil will sell for $200 minimum.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@cocascola @TXMCtrades This summer, when our oil reserves start to run dry, Trump will be forced to halt all petroleum exports. That is 1.5% of our GDP gone instantly.
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James Scola
James Scola@cocascola·
@TXMCtrades Would wager GDP is negative w/o data center build out, which impacts small % of pop. "Real" economy de facto in a (very) mild recession
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@politicalmath He played it safe and preserved revenue and profit. Maybe not the best play, but innovation can be risky. The first time Apple tried it in the 80s and 90s, they failed.
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Timothy Nugent
Timothy Nugent@TimothyWNugent·
@R89Capital I'd suggest waiting until you reach a net worth of $100 trillion. That way, you can be sure of your comfort when you retire at the age of 1,400 years old.
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Rex
Rex@R89Capital·
This but wait till you have a net worth of at least $10 million so you can do it properly
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Keşfet

@Jlafortetech @PeterDiamandis @Timboo @MichaelPBento @0neStockMan @scoochamenze @FirstSquawk @rickjeff78