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Nick 🧩
3.3K posts
Nick 🧩
@TycoonCapitall
Variance enjoyoor | Hunting Convexity
Structured Memes Desk Katılım Ekim 2021
645 Takip Edilen1.6K Takipçiler
@alwayspreparing @itswithinme_ God couldn't have gotten any more accurate with the name "preparing-ton" divine intervention here 😂
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@itswithinme_ Saved this. I have a dedicated folder for discovery call frameworks. 58 screenshots, 14 saved threads, and a printout taped to the wall next to my monitor.
Haven't had a discovery call yet but when I do, the diagnostic framing is going to be surgical.
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The questioning framework I used to unlock a $950mm capital engagement and how you can apply it today
> start with a narrow diagnostic frame, it lowers defenses
> ask questions to identify the main constraint (hidden value only exists if constraint is removable by you)
> introduce a hypothetical to test leverage
> immediately follow up with a counterfactual question to reveal necessity
The alpha is in identifying constraint mismatch between them and you. Its that simple.
B@itswithinme_
Learn how to ask the right questions btw. It’s the difference between winning & losing, being able to sell a $5k service vs. $50k service and your cost basis on a private investment. With the right line of questioning, you can unlock millions in value.
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@PlutonicXBT @MelMattison1 Only question you should make yourself if you are a crypto golden bull run believer is if this chart ever breaks out imo
If the answer is yes, then patience will be required for a few more years
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SPX has clearly peaked for the day. It's not going to break above this trend line ahead of jobs tomorrow.
But I just bought Meta 850/900 call debits for Jan '27 expiry at 9.5.
Personally, I think Meta is likely over 1000 a year from now, so these should be easy 400%+ gains.
One has to look at what everyone is telling us and then apply common sense.
What is everyone saying?
AI is the future. BUT, we are compute constrained.
Whether it's memory, power, gpus, cpus, copper, silver, etc., it matters not.
What matters is who has compute. Meta has huge compute and is building more with deals locked in.
Who cares if they can monetize it via Reels.
A year from now when everyone wants compute, they will value compute where it is available, and Meta is growing it.
You want to own AI compute. And that is primarily GOOG and META as for the Mag 7.
People selling Meta now at 670 are going to feel so stupid in 12 months.
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@BasedBiohacker Any thoughts on modafinil not being optimal for social/creative endeavors even if that is the task at hand.
Tried it for the first time and had a chat with a colleague and wanted to punch him in the mouth after 10 minutes and couldn’t say a word
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A beta asset, but every time it drops, it's because of a nefarious conspiracy where the reason for the drop is to allow the conspirators to accumulate more.
Adam Livingston@AdamBLiv
This "Epstein Quantum Saylor Liquidated Tether Binance" Dip is 100% totally organic and not at all orchestrated FUD to shakeout retail retards right before CLARITY Act is law and the institutions flood in to take their Bitcoin at a generational entry point.
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Noticed a reduction in spontaneous idea genration spurrs on moda,
The type that you will get from going on a walk and suddenly you know how to tackle a big obstacle youve had for a while.
Still think that cycling it helps with that but people should only take it on specific tasks- type of days
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"modafinil does build tolerance bro. i took it everyday for 7 years and had to double the dose after 3"
motherfucker... yes.
if you're an idiot, you will build tolerance. this applies to every single stimulating compound on earth. this is exactly why my stack only has modafinil 3x/ week (max 5).
an EXTREMELY conservative cycle.
common sense applies to nootropics. as much as these compounds can seem like forgotten magical things, they're not really. you still have to be smart about it. only then do they become truly magical.
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@PlutonicXBT When hype dump? Feeling like fomo top blasting the highs here
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Nick 🧩 retweetledi
We are watching a 21st Century Moment moving from Horse & Carriage to Racecars but it's really hard to discount.
Here is a framework that works in the current backdrop:
Investors have always had the choice of where to put their fiat money.
They can either invest in productive assets, sit in cash or sit in stores of value.
The simple equation of how to invest- Start with a basket of goods for $100. If productivity per year is 2% that basket of goods at the end of the year should cost $98 if you are invested in productive equity or business.
If inflation is 3% then that basket of goods at the end of the year would be $103 if you just sat in cash.
The difference between inflation & productivity is tax you pay to the issuer of the sovereign currency if you sit in cash. In this case you are paying 5% tax to sit in fiat cash.
Now where this gets really wonky is if you have productivity that is completely outside of any norm in history.
@leopoldasch Describes this productivity boom in his Situational Awareness treatise.
@RaoulGMI @LynAldenContact @SantiagoAuFund @Globalflows @jvisserlabs @fejau_inc @qthomp @GavinSBaker
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Some nice looking wicks on the monthly chart, confluent with some key fibs $SPX
Don't look down 👀
@Trader_XO
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@TraderBillyAU Hey Billy!
Any insights on why bitcoin is imploding? 😂
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Time to run back the “austerity” playbook
Same thing as with the trump tariffs and budget cuts.
Any left tail risks will be fuel for further easing
Huma@HumaCapital
Warsh wants to do QT > no more (or delayed) Fed put > significant increase in left tail risk for US equities.
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@atalantis7 Kinda feeling we fully retrace this into 15 liquidations.
Needed a big pump to flush out all the shorts. Now we can keep trending imo.
Let’s see how the weekly closes tho
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the whole timeline is trying to buy the HYPE dip so we keep dripping lower. wait for the liq candle and short closing before a potential bounce. some bids at 29, but I think we may go lower. drip drip drip
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So Japan, the largest global capital exporter to the world due to decades of ZIRP, is now begging to raise rates on higher growth and inflation expectations.
Meanwhile, US equities—the largest target for foreign investment and the final pool of carry trade flows—are clearly in a distribution while the us gov is trying to weaken the USD to boost industrial competitiveness while undergoing a cutting cycle.
Why wouldn’t you be long Japanese financials and tech? You benefit both from foreign capital flight back into the yen and from a strengthening economy.
Bullish yen/Japan & fading intervention FUD.
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Not sure people are grasping the thematic significance of these gold/silver moves against BTC yet. Entire cycle was underpinned by Digital gold & SOV narratives- when push came to shove Btc traded as tech beta
Given that shift, Btc is substantially overvalued at current levels
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