@IainMacBets @futureoffantasy lol and they like to call Kalshi the predators
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Hack Jones
2.5K posts
We have a new contender for the worst bet ever posted by a sportsbook.
24-1 odds on something that has never been done in the history of the Masters.
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The @CFTC has clear and longstanding exclusive jurisdiction to regulate prediction markets. But recently, state regulators have tried to impose inconsistent and contrary obligations on CFTC-registered prediction markets. In response, the CFTC and @TheJusticeDept today filed three separate complaints in federal district courts against the states of Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois to reassert our statutory authority over these markets.
Read our full actions below⬇️
cftc.gov/PressRoom/Pres…
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Four months ago, @MichaelSelig said over and over in front of a Senate committee that he would “look to the courts” for guidance on the legality of prediction markets.
I guess he is “looking” but in a different and more aggressive way!
Alfonso Straffon 🇨🇷🇺🇸🇲🇽@astraffon
"The lawsuit is the first by the CFTC to block state gaming regulators from policing operators of prediction markets." Check your bingo cards... US sues Illinois over regulation of prediction markets reuters.com/legal/litigati…
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@fairplaygov Idk what a reasonable rate would be either. I’m sure other states will try to gauge or just kick them out entirely still.
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@Tyllink I've never thought to crunch numbers on what a reasonable tax rate would be on fee revenue before yesterday. I'm sure there's a threshold that some big operators could live with but we may get to the same place we are with sports betting where small operators get squeezed out.
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Big deadline day today in Kentucky for sports betting & PM law changes.
As I understand it, Senate Committees approved changes to 2 house bills this AM so this is where we are at:
- Sports wagering & fantasy sports will go from 18+ to 21+
- A section in passed House bill that would've set a minimum bet limit on sports wagers of $1,000(!) was removed
- Formalizes fantasy sports regulations, licensure, etc.
- Prohibits 2-player pick'em contests
- FS operators will be taxed 12% on AGR starting Jan. 1 2027
- Prediction market operators are supposed be taxed 14.25% on transaction fees starting Jan. 1, 2027
- Sports wagering / fantasy sports / horse racing licensees & their service providers are barred from having a beneficial interest in prediction markets offered in Kentucky
- Permits & taxes fixed-odds horse race wagering
Senate versions of HB 757 & HB 904 are officially in the list of bills to debate / pass today.
Today is the last 'routine' day of the legislative session for passage & concurrence of new bills though there are 2 days of "extra innings" mid-month for urgent bills that don't make it through today.
Steve Bittenbender@Stepbitt
NEW: Kentucky HB 904 has been changed in the Senate Licensing & Occupations Committee to bar state-licensed online sports betting operators from participating in prediction markets in the state.
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The most outrageous pre shot routine in golf history. What the actual fuck is this …
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@fairplaygov Sometimes I wonder why I even reach out to senators/reps on this topic. They don’t listen and have way more important things to do than to deal with a little sports bettor. I asked my rep to simply sign on to this and crickets
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The discharge petition to repeal the 90% loss deduction cap still only has 2 signatures making it the least successful of the 18 filed in the current session.
Most, but not all, of the others have 180+ signatures. There is usually substantial partisan support on these.
Fairplaygov@fairplaygov
2 signatures down, 216 to go.
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@potatokmish I’m reading this stuff while on a 10 mg THC drink and it’s really got me thinking. Profound stuff
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Your parents are getting older at 75 and they haven’t told you how scared they are.
They are not dying, or becoming a problem, or of being the reason you’re stressed, the reason your money is tight, the reason your patience runs out. They watch you build your life and they quietly pray they are not in the way of it.
That silence you mistake for peace, it isn’t always peace. Sometimes it’s a 70-year-old man swallowing his needs because he doesn’t want to be a burden to the child he suffered to raise, sometimes it’s a 68-year-old woman who once moved mountains for her family, now unable to move without help, smiling so you don’t worry.
They have already grieved the version of themselves that was strong, they did that alone, quietly, at night.
What they have left is you.
Not your money, not your success, you. Your voice on the phone, your presence in the room, the way you look at them like they still matter, like they are not just a responsibility to manage but a person to love.
One day there will be no one left to call you by the name they gave you, in the voice that first said it, no one who remembers who you were before the world got to you.
That day is coming, you don’t know when.
So before it arrives, go home, sit down, put the phone away, let them talk.
The chair will empty, make sure you left nothing unsaid.
Goodnight
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@Polymarket @OMillionaires Are drug dealers also limited to deducting only 90% of their cost for purposes of calculating income taxes, or is that just the sports bettors? @repdinatitus @fairplaygov @SenatorLankford
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JUST IN: IRS guidance reminding drug dealers & thieves they must report their income goes viral, as tax season approaches in the US.
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@Polymarket @OMillionaires Old news lol. Learned this from my tax accounting professor in college 17 years ago. Even if you’re dealing the drugs, you must report.
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@Ryangreer76 @potatokmish @HodlCactusJack States are happy to ignore the issue of predatory cashouts. To mandate fair cashout offers would be to hurt their tax revenue. They’re all in cahoots
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@HodlCactusJack @potatokmish @N4yVar The point is these are regulated markets with predatory practices. If they are going to regulate a market, it should at least be fair value. If not, why bother to regulate?
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Lmfaooooo market value cashout? They’ll take away cashouts before they give you what you think it’s worth. Illinois is still a dog in its possible remaining two games, I’d run all the way to the bank with that 21k. 14 seed, 11 seed, 2 seed, 9 seed got you feelin yaself
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@potatokmish And If the bettor counters, and it’s declined by the trader, the cashout offer is taken away entirely or gets worse.
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@potatokmish Should at least be a “negotiate” button where the bettor can counter the cashout offer, and a trader on the other end can accept if it’s fair enough. $21k is aggregious.
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There should be stricter regulatory laws against the predatory practice of cash out offer amounts by retail sportsbooks being well beneath market values.
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@BoringBiz_ Addicts always gonna find a way to addict. responsibility is on the person, not the government to swoop in and save the day.
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The biggest difference I see between traditional betting markets and prediction markets is who your counter party is on the trades
At a casino, every bet you make is against the house. That is why there are hard limits on bet sizes and stop gaps to prevent someone who is winning too much
Prediction markets sit as the middle man between two counterparties, who are both users of the platform
This creates fundamentally different incentives across the two, which I think plays out in how regulators think about these platforms
However, some of the problems absolutely need a fix. The two most notable, in my mind, are
> insider trading rules
> preventing retail gambling addiction
The first platform that can figure out how to solve for these fully will win the market just through regulatory moat alone
Kalshi@Kalshi
Not all prediction markets are the same. Some are regulated in the United States. Some aren’t. Kalshi is. Rule #1: We ban insider trading. And we enforce it.
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@SenWarren Nice to hear you are so pro corporation and anti consumer. Sounds like you believe only the corporate sportsbooks should be granted the right to set markets and take people’s money, instead of avg joe individuals such as myself
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Enough is enough. We need to rein in prediction markets.
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@repdinatitus If it’s anything like your effort to repeal the wagering loss deduction limitation, I’m excited to know this has no chance.
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Glad to see so many of my colleagues jumping on my push, H.R. 7477 introduced on February 10, 2026, to ban prediction markets from sports betting.
congress.gov/bill/119th-con…
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@CasinoConnex @PredictAction You guys have valid arguments, but I do as well. All the legal sportsbooks in IL have effectively kicked me out because they don’t like my business. So PMs give me an outlet from the rigged state based industry that only benefits operators and the state, not consumers like me.
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@Tyllink @PredictAction Every state has the right to decide if gambling is good for their citizens. You don't like it vote someone in who would approve gambling. Otherwise find another state to live in. It's called states rights and it has always made the decision on gambling. Whether you like it or not
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It’s simple: National markets require national rules.
A state-by-state patchwork would make it harder to protect consumers and enforce integrity on a level playing field.
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@CasinoConnex @PredictAction What’s BS is the idea that states know how to protect their citizens. People should have the right to protect themselves. What if I want to use PMs and their sports, but my state says no? You think they know what’s best for me, after the success I’ve had using them? F that
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@PredictAction Complete BS. States know how to protect their citizens. Feds have no clue. Each state is different. And states have regulated gambling since the dawn of the USA. Prediction markets needs to be banned from offering sports betting.
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@benwfreeman1 @ChrisMurphyCT May as well just get rid of options then. We all know someone has the inside info when we see a huge spike in options volume hours before a material announcement, and the underlying stock moons. I’ll be waiting for you to get ride of options too.
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Senator Chris Murphy: “I think it’s really hard to chase the inside information. That’s why my legislation is just ‘let’s just not have those markets.’” 🤦♂️
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