UberContext
80 posts
UberContext
@UberContext
Facts are King... said no one ever.
Ubiquity Katılım Eylül 2014
0 Takip Edilen22 Takipçiler
what’s causing this?
how do we fix it?
Jean Twenge (author of 10 RULES, GENERATIONS)@jean_twenge
Reading scores, 3rd graders to 8th graders, 2015 to 2025. This is a national tragedy.
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@cullenroche First, for the record, it was transitory.
Second, if he had decided to be countercyclical to the Fiscal impulse, he would be castigated even more.
Third, even with the fiscal impulse, inflation ended up being very contained.
So there.
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My final grade for Jerome Powell: C+
He was generally a fine Fed Chairman. But the "transitory" thing has to ding his grade substantially. Yes, easy to say in hindsight, but the Fed failed to be sufficiently countercyclical during the largest period of fiscal expansion in the US government's history.
Seems like a great guy though, well intentioned, super smart. As I always told my parents - "C+ is a better grade than you're giving me credit for". :-)
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@abcampbell Consensus is China ignores blockade without consequence. But what if we choose a vessel known to contain anything that is part of Iran’s defense supply chain?
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sometimes the way to escape getting ensnared by the proxy is to escalate to the backer directly
reject the frame
The Hormuz Letter@HormuzLetter
BREAKING: In a direct message to the Trump administration and the US Navy, China's Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun says Chinese ships will continue transiting the Strait of Hormuz through agreements with Iran, and warns the US not to "meddle in our affairs." Also from Dong's statement: 1. Says Chinese ships are currently "moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz" 2. Confirms China has existing "trade and energy agreements with Iran" that China will "respect and honor" 3. Explicitly states: "Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and it is open for us," recognizing Iranian sovereignty over transit
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Little boy in settlement near Nairobi. A dollar a day, their greatest wealth the corrugated tin they call home. They speak English, French, Dutch, after centuries of colonialism and resource extraction. To see that our wealth is made from their poverty is the beginning of wisdom.
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Been watching picks and shovels eating software for a while. Just started a 25bp of AUM spread trade by legging one side of the trade. $SMH and $IGV and no you bottom picking maniacs I am not buying the dip in IGV yet! Thats where all the pain in leveraged funds is occuring. Short $SMH to eventually go long $IGV
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@FreightAlley Short-term demand pull due to energy shock
Demand destruction on the other side
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You are not bullish enough.
The trucking market is an 11 out of a 10 right now, with some the strongest charts since COVID.
The resurgence of the US industrial economy and manufacturing renaissance is real, along with tightening capacity.
I told Bloomberg Open Interest that I am an 11 out of 10 about how bullish the signals are in domestic freight.
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@McFaul Midterms fast approach and he likely won’t have the political capital nor support in Congress to carry out such an operation afterward
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In his speech tonight, Trump did not clearly articulate an "imminent threat" to the American people that compelled us to go to war now.
Instead, he cited a litany of historical Iranian threats and attacks going back to 1983 and even 1979.
So why war now?
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I can summarize the last 24 hours of fin-twit in 7 words:
Crypto was manipulated and China always wins…
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Last night, Russia tested NATO’s drone defense capabilities by attacking Poland - and NATO failed miserably.
Ukraine successfully defends against hundreds of drones, while NATO jets scramble to shoot down just a few.
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Can someone give me a price on a 10 year 5 year forward 8% swaption
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UberContext retweetledi
VIX just got rejected at its downtrend line - a bullish signal
This is a key intermarket dynamic that had us position bullish at the right time during this market pullback
Just like the past occurrences, we think this should result in more market upside
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you ever go out for a walk and quiet the voices enough to realise how incredibly beautiful everything is?
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@paulg They may just be conceding there’s a kernel of truth.
The best misleading narratives contain some truth. If the issue requires more time and nuance than 90% of the population will ever give it…
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When people respond to something you say by questioning your motives for saying it instead of explaining why it's false, they're implicitly conceding it's true.
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I’m also old enough to remember when the NYSE ticker printed every single trade. Every. Single. Trade.
Walter Deemer@WalterDeemer
@hmeisler I remember drawing charts by hand!
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The current thing: China is imploding economically!
The US suffered a catastrophic economic collapse in 1929. 16 years later, by 1945, they were the #1 superpower of the world.
DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE CHINA!
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