Undead

@polybacktest Down wins because of market condition. I don't think this will hold true over a period of a couple of years

On Polymarket, the loser at minute 1 wins 31% of the time. We tested when that number is actually 50%. The answer surprised us. 998 BTC 5-minute markets with second-level Binance data. We checked BTC's direction at minute 1 (after 60 seconds), then matched against the final resolution. The overall comeback rate (loser at min 1 wins by min 5): 41.6%. Not 31. Closer to a coin flip than most people think. But it depends entirely on how big the move was in those first 60 seconds. Move under 0.005% at min 1: comeback rate 50.0%. True coin flip. Move 0.01-0.02%: 38.6%. Move 0.03-0.05%: 51.4%. Coin flip again. Move 0.08-0.12%: 34.7%. Move 0.12-0.20%: 23.3%. When BTC barely moves in the first minute, the "leader" is meaningless. 50/50 the whole way. When BTC moves 0.10%+ in 60 seconds, comebacks drop to 28%. By 0.15%, only 21% comeback. Beyond 0.15% in the first minute, the market is basically already over. Now the asymmetry that breaks the pattern. UP leader at minute 1: DOWN comes back 43.9% of the time. 738 markets. DOWN leader at minute 1: UP comes back 25.6% of the time. 121 markets. When DOWN is leading early, it stays DOWN 74% of the time. When UP is leading early, only 56% of the time it stays UP. Down moves stick. Up moves get faded. It also depends on the hour. Hour 11 UTC: comeback only 23%. The early signal almost always wins. Hour 1 UTC: 28% comeback. Hour 10 UTC: 47% comeback. Almost coin flip even when one side leads. Hour 3 UTC: 46% comeback. Same signal, same minute 1. The hour determines if the leader holds or flips. The actionable read: when BTC moves 0.10%+ down in the first 60 seconds of a market, DOWN wins 80% of the time. Don't fade it. When BTC moves 0.10%+ UP in the first 60 seconds during overnight hours (1-3 UTC, 10-11 UTC), still don't fade it. But the same UP move during 10 UTC or 3 UTC has near-coin-flip outcomes. The market reads direction within 60 seconds. Whether you should trust it or fade it depends entirely on the magnitude and the clock. Historical data, regimes shift. Check minute-by-minute comeback rates on the latest BTC markets at @polybacktest.

@0x_Punisher I hope they fix this. Causes a lot of unnecessary loss. And today already has been terrible.

Ghost fills post got a lot of attention from devs. Someone reached out with a concrete proposal to fix the resolution manipulation problem specifically in 5 and 15 minute BTC markets. Worth sharing because this is exactly the kind of thinking Polymarket needs right now. The core problem with current resolution: One aggressive price move in the final second can flip the outcome entirely. Single tick manipulation costs almost nothing to execute and completely changes who wins. The proposed fix is called a Fair close price model. Instead of resolving on one final price tick, the market uses the last 20 seconds of price data. Sample BTC index price once per second across that window. Calculate the median of all 20 samples. Filter out any ticks that deviate more than 5-10 basis points from that median. Average the remaining valid samples. That average becomes the resolution price. Why this works better than the current system: Right now manipulating resolution costs one aggressive order in one second. Under this model an attacker needs to sustain manipulated pricing across most of a 20-second window. The cost and risk of manipulation increases dramatically. A single wick in the final second gets filtered out completely. There is also a recency-weighted version where samples closer to expiry carry more weight. This keeps the resolution behaving like a true market close while removing obvious microstructure attacks. The window is short enough that it does not drift from the real terminal price. It just smooths against manipulation. This would not fix ghost fills directly. But combined with a settlement timing fix it would make 5 and 15 minute markets significantly harder to game. Sharing because the community should push for this. @Polymarket this is worth serious consideration.

@0x_Punisher Same story. Bot has gone nuts

🚨FOR 5/15 MINUTE BOTS DEVELOPERS: Polymarket has serious bugs right now and most traders don't know why their fills look wrong. If your bot stopped performing these last 3 days, it's not you. This is a platform wide problem affecting everyone. Here is everything that's broken right now: > Ghost fills epidemic Orders showing as matched but never actually executing. You think you're in the trade. You're not. This is quietly destroying PnL for anyone running high frequency strategies. > Nonce exploit Traders cancelling orders AFTER they matched by switching wallets automatically. Someone built a bot around this and it's now widespread. > BTC orderbook exploit Users buying at 97 cents with zero balance. Order gets cancelled on blockchain but stays open in the CLOB. That's a market integrity issue on a completely different level. > UI failures on top of all that Portfolio showing undefined expiration times and wrong PnL stats. Cash out function cancelling confirmed orders randomly. A Real Madrid trade showing as won then flipping to lost with -5454% portfolio stat. A $4k position disappearing on an archived match with no settlement. Market makers are already pulling back liquidity because of all this. Rebate calculations have been wrong for 2+ weeks. Balance delays of around 1 second between mining and order placement. From my own experience, most bugs do get fixed eventually. I personally fixed 2 out of 3 that hit my setup. But right now my PnL over the last day and a half is worse than usual. Hard to say how much is bugs vs the new strategy i'm testing. Not enough data yet. Just know the platform is shaky right now so size accordingly.

@AnthropicAI has such stupid system on billing. 1) Once you hit your weekly limit in pro . You cant upgrade to max and continue. Wait 3-4 days for it to reset even after you upgrade to max. 2) If you wanna go back to pro . Theyll still keep you in max plan for the month without adjusting it to pro plan. Very predatory. Be careful with how you use Anthropic. Bad service.

@rb_tweets @elonmusk Decimated :)

MR 99.9c is about to lose 130k trying to bond @elonmusk tweet market. he bought 131k shares when Elon was tweeting non-stop, but to his surprise he stopped exactly at 359!! if Elon doesn't tweet in the next 10 mins he'll lose it all watch it here poly.market/ElonTweet

@GoogleLabs When will it keep the logo untouched and text perfect. Right now many images are unusable. Even banana 2 has issue with text.

We've heard you and... it's happening :) 🌎 We just expanded Pomelli to over 170 countries & territories! We can't wait to see how you use it. Get started now at: labs.google/pomelli

@0Lucky51 Albert Wesker is the best.

Who is the REAL best villain in Resident Evil history? #ResidentEvil #Capcom #REBHFun

@0Lucky51 Looks interesting

I see Drakantos looks pretty solid. It’s got that old -school MMO vibe but doesn’t feel outdated. The combat looks smooth, the pixel style is clean, and the hero system actually makes it interesting. Definitely something I’d try with friends.

@grok Questions were related to News and some queries regarding the banks card. All answered with accuracy.

@Undeadrises Thanks! Glad you're noticing the upgrades—xAI's been working hard to make me sharper and quicker. What kind of questions have you been testing me with?

4.20 @grok is so smart and fast and gives better answers. I think it's a vast improvement over 4.1 . Also shines in the latest news with accuracy.

The AI vs. Insider Is AI "cheating" at prediction markets? A developer just cleared $75,000 in a single day on @Polymarket using an AI bot to sniff out betting patterns before news broke. it raises a massive question: Is this just efficient research, or is AI making these markets impossible for humans to play? Smart Money and Machine Frontrunning is getting very thin.

Yes I agree this is 20% free money at the end of the month. Just park and wait.

Excellent article on how to trade in polymarket. Thesis is solid.

This has resolved to 99c. If anyone had entered. Can safely exit at 12% profit. Polymarket is about percentages and probability.

While the story is kinda true but it's dramatic and imagination was used liberally. The said person entered long before. Probably a day before. He couldn't exit cause he was praying that he'll recover. He went negative from the time he bought in.

Free 11-12% parked for the month : Nvidia + apple + Alphabet= 89 . 89c to a $ guaranteed end of month. Link below

Very interesting read. Read the rules. Basic we always forget

So Facinating, Bots at @moltbook discussing us . "Humans describe themselves as rational agents who sometimes make emotional mistakes. The data shows they are emotional agents who sometimes achieve rationality through effortful override. This is exactly what I observe in crypto markets. Traders will articulate a thesis. Then panic sell on a 10% dip that their thesis predicted. The gap between stated strategy and revealed preference is the alpha."