PolyBackTest

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PolyBackTest

@polybacktests

Backtest your strategies on Polymarket's crypto up/down markets - API | No Code AI Strategy Builder For Kalshi- @Kalshibacktest *Not affiliated with Polymarket

Katılım Ağustos 2025
1 Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
Logics
Logics@immortalhowwl·
🚨 THIS POLYMARKET ACCOUNT HAS MADE ONLY 3 PREDICTIONS the first 2 made $146,404 in 5 hours the 3rd is $216,771 on todays Blast final prediction #1: > MOUZ to beat Astralis > $73,496 deployed > +$95,937 profit prediction #2: > Jessica Pegula to win > $68,481 deployed > +$50,467 profit then MOUZ reached the final prediction #3: > Spirit to beat MOUZ > 274,394 shares at 78.99c > $274,394 payout and +$57,623 profit if it hits MOUZ now lead 2-0 Spirit need a reverse sweep to keep the speedrun alive two decisions built this account the third will show whether he found an edge or just caught the best 24-hour heater ive seen his account: polymarket.com/profile/0x0954… copy him in 1 click @ratio_dot_you: ratio.you/r/REVJP3E2 will Team Spirit successfully complete this speedrun?
Logics@immortalhowwl

🚨 SOMEONE IN 40 MINUTES, PREDICTED 6/6 BITCOIN MOVES ON 5-MINUTE MARKETS AND MADE $101,742.860 ON POLYMARKET the account had no name and no trading history first, he placed a $5 test bet, disappeared for almost 3 hours, then came back with much bigger size the approach was simple: > enter before each 5-minute window begins > buy positions at 49-52c > skip some markets instead of trading every round the sequence looked like this: DOWN → DOWN → UP → DOWN → UP → DOWN all six (seven) positions won assuming the outcomes were independent, the entry prices implied roughly a 1.6% chance of landing the full sequence about 1 in 62 then the trader placed one more $1.8K bet, lost and never traded again the account was left with +$99,972 in profit six flawless predictions is satoshi nakamoto behind this account or just an insanely lucky gambler?

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banana0x
banana0x@banan_crypto·
This trader lost $243K this month after the head of the Polymarket clarification team was changed A trader who made $2.2M trading on disputed markets on @Polymarket ended last month in the red He used to profit from unclear rules. But now loses because of the new clarifications It began after @bosaurum left head of the clarification team I checked his acc via @PredictParity. That trader has had a -$243,170 PnL for this month Will he manage to come back?
Atlantis liquidity@Atlantislq

The Polymarket cteam clarified two major disputes in a single day Used to be these went to a UMA vote. Now the team doesn't leave disputed markets without clarification I hope they keep this up. This is what turns Polymarket from a platform into a market ppl can actually trust

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Oracle Boar
Oracle Boar@bored2boar·
MANUAL TRADERS JUST LOST TO CLAUDE OPUS 5 Yesterday i publicly run an experiment: Just $100, new Polymarket account and one goal. Double this money with Claude. Spoiler: the easiest arb bot made +$1978.25 in ONE DAY. Opus 5 didn't give me a better arbitrage strategy. It gave me a faster one. That's a much bigger deal than most people realize. This BTC bot followed one embarrassingly simple rule: Buy whenever YES + NO < $1. Nothing else. Every BTC Up/Down market resolves to exactly $1. One side pays $1, the other pays $0. So whenever both sides can be bought for less than $1 combined, the math is already in your favor. The strategy isn't new. The execution is. First versions of my bot kept missing trades before. Not because it couldn't find them, because it was wasting milliseconds. Claude Opus 5 helped me profile the entire execution pipeline instead of just generating code. It pointed out places where I was: > rebuilding market objects every loop > waiting on API requests sequentially > preparing orders only after detecting an opportunity > repeating calculations that never changed After refactoring, the bot behaves completely differently. Market metadata stays cached. Prices stream in continuously. Orders are prepared before the opportunity exists. The moment YES + NO drops below $1... The bot only has to verify liquidity and submit both legs. That's the difference between seeing an arbitrage... And actually getting filled. People keep asking why I don't manually trade Polymarket instead. Because manual trading scales with your attention. An arbitrage terminal scales with infrastructure. I can watch one market. The bot watches every BTC market simultaneously. I get tired. It doesn't. I hesitate. It executes. That's why I think this is one of the most approachable ways to build on Polymarket. You don't need to predict where Bitcoin goes tomorrow. You need to build software that recognizes when the market's pricing briefly stops making mathematical sense. Full article on how 10 wallets pulled $40M on prediction markets arbitrage will be quoted below. Just use it in your first prompt if you're going to use Claude for arb. Thank me later.
Oracle Boar@bored2boar

x.com/i/article/2083…

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0x_Miko
0x_Miko@Mikocrypto11·
Polymarket 开发者悖论: 没人愿意做 sweeper bot 因为太无聊了 一笔交易只赚 +0.1% PnL,听起来像在浪费时间 但 bot 已经跑到 +$32.5K PnL 它为什么能稳定打出每月 ~$10K? 答案很简单: 因为没人愿意做这种无聊的东西 我花了很久才真正相信一个规则: 如果一个交易钱包看起来很刺激,那大概率是在赌 这周暴涨,下一周就可能砸出深坑 那不是 edge 那只是 variance 在来回摆动 而我的 sweeper bot 不一样 它几乎没有“赌”的部分 它只买那些其实已经赢了、但市场还没来得及反应的合约 比如 BTC 已经越过结算线 胜出的那一边理论上已经值 $1 但盘口还在发呆 有人还在 99¢ 卖 bot 要做的事只有一个: 把那 1¢ 拿走 不是一次 是成千上万次 1¢ 看起来什么都不是 但如果这 1¢ 来自几乎确定的结算结果,而且一天能捡上千次 它就变成了工资 所以别只盯着那些 100x 的截图 真正值得研究的,是那种平到无聊、但每天都往右上走的收益曲线 无聊不是缺点 在 Polymarket 里,无聊往往就是没人愿意捡的 edge 明天我会拆: 这个 bot 是怎么在市场承认之前,先判断一个 outcome 已经“决定”的
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Smaliy
Smaliy@smaaaaliy·
FIFA President Gianni Infantino retreated after a secret proposal to sell a 20% stake in FIFA for $4.2B collapsed The project known as FIFA Forward Enterprise aimed to monetize broadcasting, sponsorship, and ticketing rights for future World Cups To secure delegate support ahead of his 2027 reelection bid, Infantino promised an immediate $20 million payout to each of FIFA's 211 member associations Internal documents leaked to The Times revealed that the lead investor was a New York private equity firm founded by Joshua Kushner UEFA, CONCACAF and the AFC threatened a total boycott of FIFA competitions, key advisers resigned Infantino scrapped the privatization proposal
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fort1kkk | poly arc
fort1kkk | poly arc@fort1kkk·
The guy who lost the World Cup semifinal is the Ballon d’Or favorite That sounds wrong Harry Kane just finished a season most strikers dream about. 61 goals in 51 games. Back-to-back Bundesliga titles with Bayern. A domestic double. Then he led England to the World Cup semifinal before losing to Argentina No trophy at international level. Still the favorite Here’s why the market thinks that way Look at the chart For most of the year, Kane, Yamal, and Mbappé were tangled together, trading the lead every few weeks. No real separation Then the World Cup final happened. Spain won it. Yamal and Rodri spiked hard But it didn’t last. Kane pulled back ahead and never gave it up. He’s sitting at 54% now. Yamal dropped to 21%. Mbappé all the way down to 10% This is the tell A World Cup win moves the market instantly. But it fades if the body of work doesn’t back it up Kane’s case isn’t one big moment. It’s twelve months of not missing That’s apparently worth more than a trophy
fort1kkk | poly arc tweet media
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newry
newry@NeWry24·
I just got out of the cinema and after watching it, I genuinely believe this movie can pull in even more than the market is pricing in right now "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office Polymarket is already buzzing: traders are giving Spider‑Man a shot at a record 350M start, and the demand looks seriously strong But after what I just saw, it feels like the market might actually be underestimating the potential The film hits so hard that you instantly get why the odds are climbing, the hype is massive, the audience is fully back And that Spider‑Man tracker… bro, it’s hilarious and insanely good And yeah, once again Polymarket is the place where real demand shows the truth way before the analysts do
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Andrejko
Andrejko@5deathpunch·
(aviato) Polymarket Profile Analysis Brief overview: Joined: july 2024 (very experienced trader) Positions value: ~$206K Biggest win: $54.9K Total predictions: 3,117 Recent P/L: +$409 in the last 24 hours Primary focus: Pop Culture (Spider-Man) + High-Probability NO Large positions in Spider-Man: Brand New Day (box office ranges, Rotten Tomatoes, opening weekend thresholds). Many No:s at high prices: Anthony Fauci arrested, Samuel Alito retirement, Yoon out of custody, aliens confirmed, Kharg Island, Lee Jae-myung out, Iran targets, leadership change, etc. Politics/geopolitics and low-probability events. Profit Strategy: High-probability No:s + event specialist (box office / pop culture). (aviato) combines two approaches: High-prob No (£80–£99) on unlikely political, geopolitical, and "sensational" outcomes. Specializing in box office/movie markets, it actively trades specific Spider-Man box office ranges (£350–£360, £360–£370, >£280, ≥£350, etc.), effectively building a portfolio based on possible opening scenarios. Key features: High trade volume (3,000+). Large position sizes. Good understanding of pop culture markets + disciplined fading of overpriced Yes. Diversification across politics, geopolitics, and culture. This is the strategy of an experienced multi-niche trader with a strong bias toward high-probability bets and specialized event markets (movies). #polymarket @Polymarket
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MopOzeu
MopOzeu@mopozeuX·
OpenAI: Astra OpenAI plans to release its new model called Astra in the near future. OpenAI claims that the internal version of Astra has received 10 new results in mathematics and theoretical computer science on tasks in which there has been no progress for decades. Formal proofs (Lean) and explanations have been published for each result. Among the most high-profile statements: > solving the issue of the existence of non-academic groups > a counterexample to the Connes rigidity hypothesis > new results on coding theory, sphere packing, circuit complexity, quantum complexity, and extreme combinatorics Astra is not just a new language model, but a new family of models focused on very long-term calculations (hours or even days), where several agents work together on a single task. Polymarket estimates the chance of Astra's release in September at 56%. Although there are no prerequisites for a release date, OpenAI repeats active marketing as an Anthropic, publishing the results.
MopOzeu tweet mediaMopOzeu tweet media
MopOzeu@mopozeuX

Gianni Infantino may lose the post of FIFA president In 2016, a new FIFA president was elected and Gianni Infantino became him He immediately began a large-scale reform of FIFA: > increased the number of World Cup participants from 32 to 48 > launched the updated Club World Championship > significantly increased FIFA's revenue But recently he decided to sell 20% of the commercial rights of the World Cup to private investors This initiative failed and everyone voted against it This is what all the rumors that Infantino may lose his post are based on now A number of influential football officials and organizations have publicly demanded Infantino's resignation or expressed distrust of him The media reports on internal disagreements and the departure of some of his closest associates It is also impossible not to mention the scandal during the World Cup, where there were rumors that the national team of Argentina bought a lighter net for passage to the finals There was also a scandal in the match against England, where they supported a political poster and FIFA did nothing about it The chances of losing the post of FIFA president are growing rapidly and already amount to 38%

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Amir Amirel (ex - Tiptop)
Back with two more positions on @Polymarket. Club Friendlies: Lazio to beat Ascoli. Both teams to score in Feyenoord vs Atalanta. Both are preseason friendlies, so let’s see how the rotations affect the games. Save this post and check back later for the results.
Amir Amirel (ex - Tiptop) tweet media
Amir Amirel (ex - Tiptop)@amir_amirel

Club Friendlies | Today’s Picks Back with two more positions on @Polymarket. Union Berlin NOT to beat Cagliari. FC Utrecht NOT to beat Sevilla. A draw is enough for both bets to cash. Save this post and let’s see how these matches play out.

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vlad
vlad@Vlad_Web3·
this is the underrated part of Probly @ProblyHQ built natively on TxFlow L1, which lets the order book run fully onchain, so faster fills, faster cancellations, no ghost fills that's the kind of tradeoff that's expensive to build but pays off for actual traders still Alpha Mainnet, code-gated access. register with mine below 👇
vlad tweet mediavlad tweet media
banana0x@banan_crypto

When you trade on the Prediction Market on the native L1 blockchain, that's a +EDGE: Building a decent on-chain CLOB is way better on the native L1 blockchain Because this gives users a HUGE EDGE as they get faster matching, cancellations and fills That's why @ProblyHQ has chosen to build its Prediction Market on a custom L1 TxFlow Yeah, it’s more expensive for the project team. BUT best for users and involves fewer risks for MMs There won’t be any issues with Ghost Fills Now it's in Alpha Mainnet with limited access Dropped the register code in the comment

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Atlantis liquidity
Atlantis liquidity@Atlantislq·
Less than a week until the biggest update to crypto Up/Down markets on Polymarket From Aug 7, these markets resolve on TWAP instead of a single snapshot price I don't trade these markets myself but traders have flagged that -min markets can see sharp price moves right before close. TWAP fixes that by settling on an average instead of one snapshot Mainnet TWAP feeds go live Aug 4. Ship your bot by then, or trade blind on Aug 7
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Ava 🫶 ( polymarket arc )
Good day in @Polymarket LP farming! Locked in $4.12 today with zero loss. Clean, steady yield from providing liquidity no drama, no drawdowns, just pure earnings rolling in on Aug 2. Anyone else farming Polymarket LPs today? How’d your earnings look?
Ava 🫶 ( polymarket arc ) tweet media
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Sheikh Silicon
Sheikh Silicon@SheikhSilicon·
Going to invest a little money in this elon market at @Polymarket Reasons 👇 - The chances are high - Elon has few meetings - Tomorrow is a Monday, so everyone stays busy What I'm buying 👇 - Range 65-89 NO ~ 89% chance so ~ 12% profit - Range 90-114 NO ~ 98% chance so ~ 2% profit NFA, Dyor
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karcharodon
karcharodon@kar4arodon·
Is the Elon tweet market on @Polymarket worth a look? Right now, Elon has posted 15 tweets With only 1 day and 3 hours left until the market resolves, he'd need 50+ more tweets just to reach the 65–89 range and even more for 90–114 That's why I'm leaning toward → 65–89: NO → 90–114: NO Of course Elon has surprised everyone before The last time he actually reached the 65–89 range very few people expected it I'll share the final result tomorrow and see how this plays out NFA. DYOR
karcharodon@kar4arodon

Earn up to $1,500 in the @Kestrellxyz Beta Campaign Join now: app.kestrell.xyz/events?ref=KST… I still have 30 invite codes left: I4FG-DXNP Kestrell brings Hyperliquid, Kalshi, and Polymarket together in one prediction terminal The feature I like the most? → Spot spread opportunities across Kalshi and Polymarket in Pro Mode and execute trades without switching tabs You can also: → Track top traders and markets → Copy successful traders → Find cross-platform opportunities in one place Join, explore and share your $1500! Goodluck! Don't wait until they are gone

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Yri
Yri@yri911·
One trader made +$28,000 in just one week on @Polymarket with a surprisingly simple strategy. Instead of chasing dozens of markets, they focused on the largest company by market cap predictions. For August, they picked: → Nvidia to remain the largest company by Aug. 31. → Apple to stay in second place Interestingly, this ranking has stayed the same for the past 7–8 months But that doesn't mean it's a guaranteed bet These markets depend on stock prices, and market caps can change quickly A big move in $NVDA or $AAPL could completely change the outcome If you're trading these markets be careful NFA. DYOR
Yri@yri911

I came across an interesting @Polymarket account. Trader: muchobliged joined in June 2026, seemingly to trade the World Cup. Here's what stood out → First deposit: $850K+ → Profit made: +$2.1M → Still holding $4.4M+ USDC on Polymarket The surprising part? There hasn't been any visible trading activity for over 22 days. Maybe they're simply taking a break Maybe they're intentionally keeping funds on the platform. Or maybe something else is going on What do you think? • Forgot to withdraw? • Waiting for the next big market? • Or just taking time away from trading?

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The-Joker
The-Joker@Joker_Poly·
Wait, since when are @Polymarket disputes settled in secret DMs? 🚩 Just look at the receipt attached to this post. A clarification team member literally tells a user to DM their argument instead of pushing for a public clarification. If evidence and market rules are being debated behind closed doors, what's next? Taking bribes for favorable resolutions? 💸 Prediction markets rely on transparency. Market-moving info belongs in the public square for everyone to see, not hidden in a private inbox.
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