David Makovsky

Israel’s Channel 13 military analyst @alonbd reports that Israel is using Iron Dome and David’s Sling to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles. Because these systems operate at lower altitudes than Arrow-3, interceptions are occurring closer to the ground—resulting in wider shrapnel dispersal and more frequent sirens across Israel. This comes as Iran reportedly uses cluster munitions, which spread over a broader area even without the full payload of standard missiles. Greater use of Iron Dome and David’s Sling will raise questions about Arrow-3 and U.S. THAAD stockpiles. Still, the IDF says interception rates are ~90%—higher than the “12 Days War.” It’s investigating the Arad strike that evaded interception; at least 10 serious injuries, but no fatalities so far.

🧵New: While Gulf countries cautioned Trump not to launch a war against Iran in the runup to the conflict, most of them are now urging Washington to continue striking the regime, 4 senior officials from GCC countries told @TimesofIsrael (1/21) timesofisrael.com/gulf-states-op…

.@DavidMakovsky looks at the strategic timing behind the U.S. and Israel strikes on Iran.

.@DavidMakovsky on Joe Kent's conspiracy theories: "The idea that Israel is somehow going to hold the U.S. by the nose is ridiculous...it’s horrible that people use antisemitic tropes and say Israel led to the Iraq War. Everyone knows in 2003 Israel thought Iran was a bigger threat than Iraq. Everybody knows that. I don’t know how this guy [Kent] got into government.”

UAE presidential advisor Anwar Gargash says Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries “cement the Iranian threat as a central pillar of Gulf strategic thinking” and will lead to the “strengthening of our security partnerships with Washington,” calling it the “price of Iran’s miscalculations.”

In this interview with @margbrennan the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog pours some cold water on the Omani foreign minister's claim that a nuclear deal was imminent on the eve of the war Somewhat academic at this point, but a useful corrective. Oman (understandably) had an interest in making it seem as if negotiations were bearing fruit. In reality there was still an enormous gulf between the American and Iranian positions cbsnews.com/news/rafael-gr…

President Donald J. Trump has posted to his Truth Social platform warning that if Iran fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, the US will begin targeting Iranian power plants. The message was posted at 7:44pm EST.

BREAKING An Iranian missile just hit the old city of Jerusalem, not far from the Temple Mount/ Al-Aqsa Mosque.

Iran has publicly executed Saleh Mohammadi, a teenage member of the country’s national wrestling team, who was arrested during January’s protests. He was executed despite evidence that his family said proved he had been elsewhere at the time 🔗: telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…

Former Prime Minister and Defense Minister Naftali Bennett on Jewish violence in Judea and Samaria: “We did not establish a Jewish state so that violent gangs would operate within it. I strongly condemn any display of nationalist violence by extremist Jews in Judea and Samaria. More than half a million Israelis live in Judea and Samaria, good, decent people, the backbone of the country. The vast majority reject violence and crime. Precisely as someone who believes in our right to the land and in the communities there, we must denounce the rioters and eradicate all violence from within our own ranks. This is yet another failure of governance by the government. Let the IDF and the police do their job. Soon, we will return to lead Israel.”

The senior advisor to the President of the United Arab Emirates, Anwar Gargash, told Bloomberg: "Iran made a mistake when it attacked the UAE and other countries in the Persian Gulf — it brings them closer to Israel and the United States. For countries that have relations with Israel, those relations will grow stronger. For countries that do not have relations, I expect additional channels to open."

Mohammed Abdulmalik Abu Shahla "Abu Suleiman", a commander in Hamas' Khan Younis Brigade, was killed in an airstrike this morning, and obituaries were quickly circulated by family and on Hamas/Hamas-affiliated channels.🧵

Exclusive: Notes from conversations with senior Israeli security officials after the strike that killed Larijani and others. For them, Larijani mattered more than the assassination of Ali Khamenei himself. The IDF keeps insisting - on and off the record - this isn’t about regime change. So what is the goal? One senior figure told me: “Imagine Israel waking up after weeks of war to find no military industry, no Rafael, no Israel Aerospace Industries, no R&D - no technological backbone for the regime left. That’s the scale of damage we’re inflicting. That’s the campaign. Billions that they are losing each day. And that’s Israel’s insurance policy for the day after.” Read my full piece here: nadaveyal.com/p/larijani-was…

Ali Larijani had a track record of mass repression as well as decades of domestic and foreign policy experience. He will not be easily replaced. Discussion w @kaitlancollins on the state of the military, economic, and political war between the US and Iran.

The canard that the US went to war in Iraq because of Israel is the giveaway here. Anyone who knows anything about that time knows that is not the case. In fact Israeli security officials were skeptical about the Iraq war in part because they thought Iran was the bigger danger

Abdullah bin Zayed Strongly Condemns Continued Iranian Terrorist Attacks on the UAE and Extends Sincere Condolences to Victims’ Families His Highness Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, expressed his sincere condolences and deep sympathy to the families of the victims of Iran’s unprovoked terrorist attacks targeting the UAE. The victims, who lost their lives as a result of these blatant attacks, are Alaa Nader Awni from the State of Palestine; Murib Zaman Nizar, Muzaffar Ali Ghulam, and Ismail Salim Khan from the Islamic Republic of Pakistan; Ahmed Ali from the People’s Republic of Bangladesh; and Dibas Shrestha from the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal. His Highness also wished a swift and full recovery to all those injured. His Highness further extended his condolences to the State of Palestine and its people, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and its people, the People’s Republic of Bangladesh and its people, and the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal and its people, over the victims of these attacks. His Highness underscored the UAE’s continued commitment to the safety and security of all citizens, residents, and visitors. His Highness condemned in the strongest terms the continued Iranian missile and drone attacks, which have persisted for 18 consecutive days and involved more than 2,000 ballistic and cruise missiles and drones targeting critical civilian infrastructure, airports, residential areas, and civilian sites across the UAE. His Highness underscored that this dangerous escalation constitutes a flagrant violation of the country’s sovereignty and poses a serious threat to regional and international security and stability. His Highness added: “The UAE strongly condemns this ongoing escalation targeting civilians and critical facilities across the country. These unprovoked attacks, which have persisted for more than two weeks, have been met with strong international condemnation through United Nations Security Council Resolution 2817, co-sponsored by 136 UN Member States. The resolution demands that Iran immediately and unconditionally cease these attacks against the Gulf states and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, and affirms that it is fully liable for all damages and losses incurred by the affected countries.” His Highness stressed that the UAE reserves its full right to take all necessary measures to safeguard its sovereignty, national security, and territorial integrity, and to ensure the safety and security of its citizens and residents, in accordance with its inherent right of self-defense under international law. His Highness Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed underscored that the UAE’s relevant authorities are fully prepared to address any threats, and that these attacks will not deter the UAE from safeguarding its sovereignty, security, and stability. His Highness emphasized that the security situation across the country remains stable, and that readiness levels are at their highest, underpinned by rigorous professional standards and clear institutional frameworks, reinforcing a strong sense of safety and reassurance for all who live in the UAE. His Highness also commended the support and solidarity expressed by more than 130 countries with the UAE, reflecting the confidence the international community places in the UAE and its well-established global standing, built over decades of responsible diplomacy, strong international partnerships, and a commitment to regional and global stability. mofa.gov.ae/en/mediahub/ne…

Hours ago, U.S. forces successfully employed multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions on hardened Iranian missile sites along Iran’s coastline near the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian anti-ship cruise missiles in these sites posed a risk to international shipping in the strait.

Now in the third week of this war, the UAE continues to bear the brunt of Iranian drone and missile attacks in the region.

“Today, the thin line between the IRGC and Hezbollah is completely broken,” said @haningdr. Watch the full webcast: washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…

In this week’s Decision Points episode, I sat down with Lebanese expert @haningdr and former IDF head of strategic planning, Assaf Orion, to discuss the goals of the current Israeli campaign against Hezbollah amid the backdrop of the Iran War. Assaf prefaces any Lebanese negotiations with the need for real, measurable milestones of Hezbollah disarmament. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dec…