JamesWeather

Is record breaking heat on the way for the end of this week ? The maximum temperature recorded was reached on the 29th may 1944. If this comes off then this record will be smashed out of the park. The UKV over does the temperatures by a lot. But if correct we could see 34+C

Incredible run from 12z ECMWF for late May, 3 consecutive days Sunday - Tuesday with 31-32C across parts of England and not just the southeast. 15z UKV going for 35C in the London area on Monday! The sudden onset of such heat from the cool even chilly last few weeks will come a bit of a shock for some! CET currently below average but looks to end up above average by end of the month!

Almost unbelievable forecast from tonight’s European model it has trended hotter. We see 32C/90F daily between this Sunday and next Tuesday in London area. Hard to believe we just experienced coolest mid May period in 15 years and now we look to see a historic heatwave. The change is violent.

I have produced an easy to understand forecast of the very likely to be heatwave in the south this bank holiday weekend. Check it out here: youtu.be/4zvfubUDEIE

I'm starting to see potential for the upcoming heatwave to be potentially record breaking for May. The UKV 03z and now 15z are showing 33-34C in the south east on Sunday/Monday. The current May record is 32.8C in 1944. Long overdue to be beaten!

The fact we are looking at temperatures potentially reaching 33/34°C in MAY is ridiculous. Decades ago these temperatures were rare in summer. Climate change continues to show itself.

On Saturday, there is a small chance of thunderstorms. However, confidence on this is low. The main weather story will be the upcoming likely to be heatwave, coming into the bank holiday weekend. Here are the thresholds that need to be hit over a 3 day period for a heatwave:

15z UKV continues to hold the trend of 34C as a max temperature on Sunday. However, as others have mentioned, the UKV can overestimate temperatures with a high lead time, so take this with a grain of salt. I believe hitting the 30C mark on Sunday is likely however.

@TorCastAi @metoffice I would say 5% chance Saturday morning, but I believe that the capping and the high pressure is way too intense to support any storms, and will leave any building CAPE wasted

@WeatherJamesUK @metoffice With a near 0% chance of ⛈️on Saturday, that signal has all but gone from earlier in the week.

The @metoffice put out this graphic (the 10 day trend, would suggest you watch it on youtube), suggesting heatwave conditions are likely to be met, at least in the south.

@metoffice youtube.com/watch?v=h6qIp1…

@MetJam_ Interesting, didn't know this

Spot the odd one out - UKV seems to have an issue with temperature overestimation at extended lead time, much drier & warmer nose higher up than in other models, may be an issue with how it handles subsidence? It does make for charts showing 34ºC whilst others show 28ºC!

A powerful Heat Dome forms over Europe, leading to a significant reversal in weather patterns this May. Peak temperatures into the 30s. severe-weather.eu/global-weather…

crazy UKV run - I'm not sure if it will hold but if it does we could break the temperature record for may.

Whilst there is now good confidence in the high pressure and change in type to a much more settled and finally much warmer spell of weather, there is not total agreement into the start of next week as to the shape and orientation of the Mid level tropospheric block . The 850mb Temperatures and the 500mb flow is much more zonal in the GFS north of 55N vs the ECMWF which has a more amplified ridge centred over N France at 500mbs vs Switzerland on the GFS. This pattern confines the higher temperatures to SE England . UKMO is a split between the two. The differences believe it or not are still linked to the handling of the disrupting pesky upper vortex which i have been talking about on previous posts. In the GFS the vorticity is slower to be killed off and squeezed dry vs the ECMWF which does a more robust job of killing the vorticity across the neck of the disruption allowing for a greater build in pressure across Southern England through the Mid Levels. This allows for the mid levels to dry and warm and through greater descent buiilds GPH even more allowing for a much more amplified pattern by Tuesday. Fascinating as its a great example of how something quite benign in the atmosphere - can see changes grow and magnify in time. However we remain on course for at least 6-7 days of fine and settled weather with temps in the mid to high 20s across many parts of the South and SE of England. Risk Thunderstorms in the SW next week i will look at nearer the time.

GEM is enticing me to bring back my thread of fantasy charts that almost certainly won’t verify but worth archiving. Haven’t done it in a few years now.

Goes to show how good Handry is with these outlooks. What a tool HOCO is

Friday will be the first notably hot day of the year. Friday may possibly be 10c warmer than Thursday which could cause health issues to many due to the sudden change of temperature within the 24 hour period. Friday morning, high pressure will be sat over centeral Europe with low pressure sat hundreds of miles to the west of the British Isles in the Atlantic. Due to the positions of the 2 air masses, the UK will be effected by a consistent stream of warm maritime air from Portugal and Spain. This stream will pull up warm 850hPa temperatures which would allow significant heating to take place in England on Friday and possibly Saturday. 30C could be recorded in parts of Cambridgeshire and London on Friday and Saturday, maybe even a cheaky 31c - 32c.

@PeterChailey No I am simply exposing my own mistakes after I went mental over a chart

@WeatherJamesUK Did you forget to change accounts whilst tweeting this

This engagement baiter used a screenshot from over 7 days away and conveniently cut out the date of it occurring. They also used the severe word, and "chance" and "multiple days". (I might have accidentally done this after getting excited from a chart. Watch Friday though)