Weather Sphere
7.8K posts

Weather Sphere
@WeatherSphere22
Weather Enthusiast | NOT a Meteorologist | Located in South-Central PA | Focus on Severe, Tropics, and Winter

I think the positive PMM (warm waters off of Mexico+California and the NE Pacific) is going to be a key for this hurricane season, and a key distinguishing factor from 2023 (which had a negative PMM with cool water off the Mexican coast), along with the cooler Atlantic. The +PMM should mean a lot more convection and TC activity in the NE Pacific, which will likely suppress the Atlantic due to downstream subsidence and shear. Compare the May 2023 and May 2026 UKMET precipitation forecasts: 2026 is much wetter in the NE Pacific and much drier in the Atlantic, despite a similar El Niño signal along the equator (though 2026 is a little stronger there too).








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