Bruce X

@LukeGromen But the 6/8/12% gdp spent to fight a recession is temporary while the cuts to spending permanents lower future deficits.

2/ Even if 30-35% immediate & permanent cuts to Entitlements & Defense were politically possible (they're not), mathematically, such cuts would put the US into recession, & last 3 recessions saw deficit/GDP rise 600, 800, & 1200 bps of GDP IE, The cuts would increase deficit/GDP

US Federal interest expense is the biggest individual fiscal line item. i.e., Fed rate hikes to fight deficit-driven inflation will increase deficits unless the US govt cuts Entitlements & Defense drastically. 5% of GDP deficit cut = 30-35% immediate & permanent cuts to both.

One shortcoming of playlists is that I can't include just a portion of a song, particularly for songs with big vibe transitions.

@macpheeeee @ESYudkowsky @tszzl Norms against clear communication prevent good ideas from spreading.

love the guy but i want the pg era of utilitarian philosophical writing to to be over bring back big words and epic prose and sentences that make sense only at an angle

We all collectively collapsed the wave function. Feels better not to live with the tension of living in political superposition.

We're lucky to be on a path where our strong narrow AI can plug security holes before AGI arrives. The alternative is dangerous.

@elidourado Right you need a model. Like suppose polling error in each state has std dev s, then from the price we can calculate an implied poll. Then estimate correlation of polling error based on corr of poll changes over time. It's not perfect, but much better than independence.

@_BruceX_ You can't take polling moves and apply them straightforwardly to prediction market odds.

Ok, let’s do this. Unlike lame-ass poll-based Monte Carlos, these will update throughout the day and night based on state-by-state prediction market fluctuations. You can close the tab, but you will always come back. election.elidourado.com

@8teAPi at least 2 oom too high

IMO there may only be maybe a 100k truly technical people with agency in the whole world. Maybe less. Single individuals who can architect a project and then summon the resources from the market to make plans reality. There are a bunch of smart NPCs with low agency, high ability, these are represented on hackernews. High agency low capability people fill up many industries, these are the people that sustain companies but are never able to pivot.

@deliprao Unless you suspect you are stupider and more ignorant than the median voter.

This is my only election-related tweet. If you haven't already, go vote! Polls are open in most places until late evening (8 pm). If you are an employer or faculty member, encourage your employees/students to do so. If you have already voted, remind your friends to vote.

Love him or hate him, you've got to admit Trump's been an absolutely Shakespearean character. A modern Hamlet, endlessly entertaining and maddeningly open to interpretation. Can't wait to see what the next act holds!

@goblinodds My rationale is that I like to set a goal where I can comfortably achieve a decent win rate without stressing too much over small choices. I've beaten A20H with all of them but something like A15 is more relaxing.

i just learned that Slay the Spire players are by and large just aiming to finish the final boss and not the heart and like no wonder i've done so little in this game??? i always go for the heart?? he's the last guy????

@lgrammel Multi-agent systems help when the org context (list of available tools/subagents and all their strengths/quirks/interactions/etc) gets too big. You could extend the router approach with a hierarchical directory, but a multi-agent ecosystem can organically organize a structure.

I would love to understand what problems multi-agent systems are better at than deterministic workflows. Eg the typical router agent & specialized work agent examples can easily be deterministic workflows. If you work on larger multi-agent systems, can you share details? 🙏

@AndrewCritchPhD 22 and your estimation of each candidate's likely response seem like they outweigh the others by a lot.

Dear X users, help me decide whether to vote for Harris or Trump, if I am... 1) really excited for the election to be over just so we can know who won and move forward with our lives, 2) feeling patriotic and wanting to vote for of them (not 3rd party) as a symbolic act, even though I live in California, 3) really against demonizing Republicans as much as many of my CA social network is, 4) really into Elon Musk's pro-tech pro-progress business empire, 5) really into high-skill immigration policies, 6) against how much more Trump seems to lie and/or misremember stuff relative to other politicians, 7) against how much left-leaning news constantly lies about Trump, including when he's in the wrong and they exaggerate how wrong he is to the point of lying about him, 8) against illegal immigration, 9) against stoking culture wars, 10) against racism, 11) pro meritocracy, 12) pro government efficiency / de-regulating more stuff, 13) pro AI regulations that create standards that will accelerate the US economy, 14) vaguely wanting more CA voters to vote Rep just to move us closer to becoming a swing state that both parties have to pay attention to, 15) generally pro-America and pro most Western values (I live here on purpose), 16) pro diversity of viewpoints in discourse and business,  17) not a complete cultural relativist (i.e., I have some moral beliefs like "lying is bad" and "killing is bad" and "honesty is good" and "healing is good", such that I tend to judge people and cultures somewhat by how much lying/killing/honesty/healing they do). 18) really disturbed at the lack of secret service protections for Trump's campaigns, 19) pleasantly surprised by Harris's articulateness and decency as a candidate — even clips of her selected for inarticulateness often seem reasonable — though I didn't feel that way about her as Vice President, where she didn't seem to stand for as much, 20) worried about Trump's past administrations' negative judgments of him, 21) unhappy with how universities are so predominantly left-leaning that Republican perspectives are often off-limits to entertain on college campuses, 22) fairly confident (~70%) that AGI will be developed before q4 2028, probably in the US or UK, 23) strongly in favor of democratic norms and informed consent as a way of steering the future together as a species, 24) vaguely disappointed by the lack of truth-seeking and lie-rejecting that currently drives most human engagement with politics,  25) really happy with X's Community Notes feature as a step toward collective truth-seeking that is also very free-speech-compatible, 26) pro having a wide "overton window" except when it comes to entertaining atrocities,  27) pro going to Mars, 28) annoyed at Musk for cursing at Disney executives on interviews, 29) glad Musk bought Twitter, 30) not against America building a wall to protect its border, 31) against the amount of exaggeration there is about illegal immigrants voting (what illegal immigrant wants to risk raising their visibility to the government by voting?), 32) pro recognition that voter fraud is probably a real issue but uncertain about how much, 33) pro recognition that foreign election interference is a problem, 34) pro recognition that tech companies have a scary amount of influence over election outcomes, 35) against Trump's comportment on Jan 6 2021, which was too tolerant of protests that were likely to turn violent, 36) pro recognition that republican voters face an uphill battle against liberal legacy media companies who misrepresent their views and causes, 37) against the rate at which Americans label each other as "extreme right" and "extreme left", 38) feeling fairly centrist but often presumed leftist because of living in CA, and annoyed about that, 39) not wanting to lie about or hide who I vote for, and 40) dreading how many people will be pissed at me for voting for either Harris or Trump?

Minor AI Use Case: I have a script that asks an AI to make a playlist based on a description of a mood or example songs. It uses the Spotify API to make the playlist and save it in my account.

@AskYatharth Depends if "fair" means "following the rulings of the relevant authorities/institutions" or "following an idealized process that hews as close as possible to the letter of the law".

i'd vaguely heard about the US election in 2000 actually being "stolen" and i looked it up and it seems consensus is - the entire US election came down to florida - the difference in votes was <0.1%, not statistically significant - polling machine had hardware issues way higher than <0.1% - florida could have decided to actually and properly hand count the votes - the state's highest supreme court decided to do that - bush asked the supreme court to intervene in a state's free & independent ability to run its own elections - the voting was exactly on partisan lines: the 5 republican judges declared bush the winner - they cited reasoning that competes for one of the most transparently dishonest rulings of all time - the single most comprehensive study after the fact found that if the votes had been properly counted, gore would have won - this is not factoring in a calculated, well-documented attempt by republican governor of florida to suppress thousands of votes, in black counties for al gore, by the official US election commission

@joshclinton Without the methodology used here, this chart is meaningless.

Hmm....

@nickcammarata I don't even know how I would go about evaluating the truth value of this claim.

my answer to the thiel question is that I think bugs and trees and stuff may in a sense be more alive than we are, bc felt-aliveness is a function of valence and sensory strength, and those may anti-correlate with organism complexity bc they aren’t nearly as regularized

Nobody in the world has as much ability to steer the future of humanity as Xi Jinping and it's not even close. He could start WW3, derail AI worldwide, and cause maybe 100m deaths on a whim.

With a week until the election, this is the maximum concentration of propaganda we feel coursing through our feeds. Huge negative value epistemically and emotionally.

@eigenrobot i had millstones from legends for the black bordered flex

if elected i swear i to be our first mill deck president i cant promise we'll win but if we do everyone else will be so mad at us