Blindspot Value

The market is pricing $LUMN as a dying telecom. It owns the premier U.S. long haul fiber network - and it’s becoming the physical backbone for AI data movement. Stock is at ~$8. I think it is worth $17 base case, $25-44 if it re-rates.

Any thoughts on $MOH after the recent pullback? Screens as a potentially interesting earnings power restoration story if they can hit 2029 guidance ($25 EPS) and a low-mid teens multiple (22% IRR at 14x). Further upside if Medicaid margins get back to historical. Consensus well below the $25 target already.

$GT. Huge torque to a volume recovery, up-mixing/cost cuts effectively lowers breakeven and insulates them from import competition. Huge margin gap to close vs peers and if they can get even partly there upside is massive. Lots of leverage means equity upside is substantial on segment OI improving.

What are the most asymmetric opportunities you see right now? Looking for true “lose $1 to make $5” setups…

@CParyse86296 How would you frame the risk/reward? What would be a reasonable base case for upside?

Interesting reporting from Bloomberg about $CRMT implying Silver Point is more than covered in a liquidation.

@FindleysFinance I’ve always been surprised at the valuation difference between $WMT and $COST vs $AMZN

At current prices, I wouldn't touch $COST with a 10 foot pole. At some point, valuation does matter. The risk isn't that the business would fail. The risk is the opportunity cost of buying an overpriced safe haven when $META, $AMZN, $MSFT are screaming buys.

@LaughingH20Cap @CFAs4CFPs @BATMongoose How do you think about downside from here?

@CFAs4CFPs @BATMongoose it was disclosed at trial that GSK tried to buy $ANAB 3 times over the last year. IMHO this is more important than whatever odds I put on the trial outcome. It seems that in all scenarios ANAB gets sold. If they win trial, the $ will be higher. If they dont it will still be fine

Seems like the $ANAB trial is perhaps not going well...

@DrewCohenMoney $UBER.

Are you more worried about the AV risk for $UBER or $CPRT?

@TraderOver1 Familiar with the industry and turnaround, think it is an interesting one. Turnaround seems to be going OK but not a ton of metrics to help gain confidence on the rest of it.

Anyone familiar with $AAP ?

@Cameron_Invest Agreed.

@blindspotvalue When they started doing healthcare a decade ago, they started paying much bigger multiples so less room for error.

$DHR what are thoughts here? Seems like M&A strategy has been less succesful in Healthcare (e.g. Aldevron) vs Industrials, end markets not co-operating, and possible business model issues (vs $TMO integrated model) surfacing in new end markets? What am I missing?

@RatelCapital1 I agree.. very few believe the mid cycle number - looking at historical EBITDA/t even adjusting for re-allocated overhead/conservatism gets you confortably above $100M.

@blindspotvalue the sell side is at approximately $100MM for 2028 EBITDA. Very few people believe the $200MM mid-cycle number. Which is the opportunity. I laid out part of my thoughts. The set up seems interesting although the appetite for small cap value with leverage is non existent.

Another interesting paperboard name.. $CLW. Pure-play bleached paperboard manufacturer (1.4Mt/5Mt industry capacity or 30% share) across 3 mills. Steady demand industry (LSD% growth). Sold tissue biz for $850M in H2/24 (6x EBITDA), a lower ROA/more volatile business and bought 3rd mill (Augusta) for ~$700M. Right into a brutal downcycle…

@batman10023 It definitely is another data point we are past the worst of it! Helps with a decent piece (~40%) of $CLW’s book.

@blindspotvalue RISI announced pricing on friday. suggesting the price increase went thru for the most part - anywhere from 40-60 bucks per ton. Yuge positive. market doesn't care

@DudeWhoInvests AI pick and shovel play with downside protection, improving balance sheet, and lots of upside optionality.

@DudeWhoInvests $LUMN is one of my highest conviction positions - it is written up on my substack!

What is your largest holding right now and a simple reason on why?

Some of these finance/investment Substacks are genuinely excellent. The quality of work is better than many sell-side research reports I read because the incentive structure is entirely different - the best writers are trying to build a reputation with good analysis, not trying to generate commissions or management access. “Show me the incentive, I’ll show you the outcome”

@BMorelan30858 @taobanker $225-250 AUS PLV

@blindspotvalue @taobanker Define normalized met prices

it feels like it's time to buy coal which coal stonk is the best here? $amr ?

@ClarkSquareCap From what I’ve seen so far, holdco mispricing, possible earnings inflection as one time noise rolls off, and what seems like a solid process power moat. @Fairlight_Cap wrote an awesome thread on it which caught my eye!

@blindspotvalue Yeah? Why do you like it?

Here is a list of Korean holdcos with publicly listed stakes greater than the current market cap. What looks most interesting?

Some good ideas in this thread. ⬇️

@Fairlight_Cap Love this idea! Very well thought out. I’d be curious how you think about range of outcomes for normalized earnings and the catalyst path for holdco discount improving/how value-up fits into this given it is tough to measure.

My favorite stock at the moment. An East Asian technology company based in South Korea. They develop and manufacture the machines that make OLED screens, OLEDoS VR display components, and now Perovskite solar panels (company ticker at the end of this thread). They are part of a duopoly (along with Canon Tokki) in the manufacture of OLED deposition equipment. Incredibly microscopic organic molecules are deposited on glass displays that light up red, green, and blue to create display images. 1/n