Hamidreza Azizi@HamidRezaAz
🧵Ghalibaf’s remarks tonight were clearly aimed at domestic audience, particularly the Islamic Republic’s core support base. This constituency consists largely of hardline, ideologically driven groups whose continued mobilization has been critical for maintaining internal stability during the war, but who are also deeply skeptical of diplomacy.
🔹Over the past few days, it has become increasingly evident that while reliance on this minority base can help the system navigate crises in the short term, it comes at the cost of reduced flexibility and a narrower room for maneuver.
🔹This same constituency had opposed the ceasefire and, following Iran’s conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, mounted a sustained pressure campaign against decision-makers, urging them to reverse course. This domestic pressure may have contributed to the subsequent move by Iranian authorities to reimpose restrictions on the Strait.
🔹Ghalibaf’s statements addressed several key points:
1. He emphasized that although Iran may have gained the upper hand on the battlefield, this does not mean that its adversaries have been fully defeated, thereby underscoring the continued need for diplomacy.
2. He sought to reframe the relationship between war and diplomacy, arguing that both are instruments for advancing national interests. By doing so, he aimed to deflect criticism from hardliners accusing him of adopting a softer, pro-diplomacy stance at the expense of national interests.
3. He further described negotiations as a complement to, rather than a contradiction of, military efforts, positioning diplomacy as part of a broader strategy to secure Iran’s objectives.
4. Finally, he stressed that all diplomatic engagement is conducted within the framework established by the Supreme Leader, reinforcing the message that negotiations do not deviate from core strategic principles.
🔹Together, these points were intended to reassure and placate a domestic audience wary of compromise.
🔸Ghalibaf also addressed the negotiation process. He noted that while some progress has been made on specific issues, the two sides remain far from reaching a final agreement.
🔸Importantly, he emphasized that Iran’s approach is based on step-by-step commitments and an incremental process. In other words, Tehran is not prepared to make upfront concessions that would allow the other side to delay or avoid fulfilling its own obligations later.
🔸His direct reference to JD Vance was also notable. Ghalibaf stated that Vance had told him in Islamabad that he was there in good faith to pursue a durable peace. Ghalibaf responded that Iran, too, is negotiating in good faith, but does not trust the United States.
