James Meek
1.8K posts
I agree. I think Russia is approaching an inflection point in the coming months about whether to continue the war. In order to capture all of the Donetsk region (which is of questionable actual strategic value for Russia), Moscow may need to conduct another mobilization or otherwise change its current approach, which has not achieved a breakthrough despite Ukrainian manpower issues. Infiltration tactics will likely be less effective over the winter as well. Ukrainian deep strikes are increasing the costs of the war for Russia, and increased support from the US could further strain Russia's ability to sustain the war. If Moscow decides to continue the war well into 2026, it will be demonstrating that it is willing to accept growing risks of lasting damage for questionable strategic gains. With such a cost-benefit analysis, we should not be surprised to see further risky and aggressive moves by Russia intended to deter or compel reduced support to Ukraine.
Hoy en @ElMundoInter analizo por qué todos quieren que los ucranianos ganen, pero nadie quiere luchar junto a ellos. elmundo.es/internacional/… Se ha hablado de un despliegue que duraría unos cinco años, y estaría lejos del frente: tal vez protegiendo infraestructuras críticas en el oeste de Ucrania, o bien ocupándose de asegurar "flancos" que han sido muy peligrosos en otras etapas de esta guerra: la frontera bielorrusa o alrededor de Odesa. "Si hay un alto el fuego será necesaria más claridad", me dice por teléfono @John_ForemanCBE, que fue agregado de Defensa del Reino Unido en Moscú y Kiev. De momento sólo tenemos intenciones y buenas energías. Algunos expertos más técnicos, como los analistas militares Jack Watling y Michael Kofman, creen que un despliegue mediano sería posible y eficaz si se ubica en las tres zonas donde los rusos pueden reincidir: Kiev, Jarkov y Donetsk. El miedo es qué pasaría si tropas europeas son atacadas. Pero esta guerra ha demostrado que "la dispersión es altamente efectiva, al igual que el atrincheramiento, y la defensa aérea intercepta un porcentaje significativo de los ataques rusos". Desplegar tropas en Ucrania es posible. Pero si Rusia rechaza esta vigilancia europea de la paz y la paz depende de que Moscú decida parar: ¿se puede saber para qué escenario nos estamos preparando?
Dear journalists and analysts: The phrase "ceding territory" is vague at heart, and the ambiguity it creates in these discussions, from NYT headlines to think tank reports is straight-up dangerous. It could mean any of the following very different things: 1/
⚡️Donald Trump says he just had a phone call with Vladimir Putin. "As we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, “COMMON SENSE.” We both believe very strongly in it. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now."
Starmer said that the previous Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse covers the issue. However it only looked at 6 towns, and we now know that abuse took place in as many as 50 towns and cities. (4/12)
