Alberto Grossule

@LynAldenContact Japan already started reselling excess LNG to Taiwan, they have three weeks of reserves vs Taiwan’s 11 days, so the rich-country coordination is happening in real time.

In practice, the wealthy nations including Taiwan can scramble to bid high prices for unencumbered energy and materials to fill some/all of their gap, which will likely leave the worst shortages with the poorest countries.

@balajis India didn’t just diversify imports, it became a refining hub exporting diesel and jet fuel to Europe on cheap Russian barrels and it flipped the whole energy position in 4 years

It's a global energy crisis. But India is far better positioned than it was in 2020.

@JohnnyLaird @PeterDiamandis Aggressive means ahead of schedule not off target, for example he said reusable rockets in 2015 and people laughed, took a bit longer but the rocket still landed.

@agrossule @PeterDiamandis Does 'aggressive' = wrong?

Elon really threw some bold predictions into our conversation. An economy 10x its size in 10 years, a moon base, people on Mars, mass drivers in orbit.  What a time to be alive!

@theJayAlto The gap between the two is just one habit, stupid people collect answers and smart people collect better questions.

stupid people are desperate to be right. smart people are desperate to be less wrong.

@sama You named a Head of Life Sciences and a Head of Resilience but nobody running economic transition or labor displacement, why?

AI will help discover new science, such as cures for diseases, which is perhaps the most important way to increase quality of life long-term. AI will also present new threats to society that we have to address. No company can sufficiently mitigate these on their own; we will need a society-wide response to things like novel bio threats, a massive and fast change to the economy, extremely capable models causing complex emergent effects across society, and more. These are the areas the OpenAI Foundation will initially focus on, and in my opinion are some of the most important ones for us to get right. The Foundation will spend at least $1 billion over the next year. @woj_zaremba, co-founder of OpenAI, will transition to Head of AI Resilience. I believe that shifting how the world thinks about safety to include a Resilience-style approach is critical, and I am extremely grateful to Wojciech for taking on this role. Wojciech has been my cofounder for the last decade; anyone who knows him will understand what I mean when I say he is one of a kind. He has a lot of ideas about how we build a new kind of AI safety. @JacobTref is joining as Head of Life Sciences and Curing Diseases. @annaadeola, our VP of Global Impact, will transition to Head of AI for Civil Society and Philanthropy. @robert_kaiden is joining as Chief Financial Officer. @jeffarnold is joining as Director of Operations.

@proctorzt @michaeljburry Two problems at once, big tech funds AI labs that spend it back on big tech products so revenue looks real, and the same AI tools kill SaaS companies sitting on billions in private credit loans.

@agrossule @michaeljburry Can you expand on the ai to private credit loop there? Are you talking about ai reducing workforce and that impacting private credit payments? Or something else?

What really matters to the market and the US economy is not the Strait of Hormuz.

@GadzhiIman Keeping your burn rate flat while revenue grows is basically compounding in reverse, and that's good because the gap between income and spending widens every year without you doing anything extra

I was talking to a friend and she casually said “you only really need about $18 million a year.” I asked her what she spends $18M a year on and she said “$5 million is just jet fuel.” Everyone thinks their number is “normal” The danger for operators is when your “basic needs” start creeping up faster than your business can sustain. I've seen guys scale from $800K to $1.5M then immediately lease the McLaren, hire 15 people, and move to a penthouse. Now they're pocketing less than when they had lower revenue. I've kept my personal burn rate the same for years even as the business grows, the rest gets deployed. Lifestyle creep is permanent, and it’s hard to go backwards once you've tasted the next level up. Keep your expenses low for as long as you can.

@quxiaoyin Yes because the whole authorship model is different: > Software is a fixed set of instructions someone wrote > AI figures out the instructions on its own

AI is not software. Software is dead.

@RayDalio Backtesting also shows you how wrong you can be, which is almost more useful than confirming you're right

To succeed at investing, you need to have a well-throughout, ideally back-tested, game-plan that you execute, rather than make decisions spontaneously.  To build a well-tested game-plan, start by looking at all the big events that have happened before, because, if it happened before, you should assume it will happen again (unless you can say why you're confident it won't). Almost everything that you will encounter has happened before many times in slightly different versions, so if you have a game plan for dealing with all of those you will be in pretty good shape.  Also, you will find that having a well-tested game-plan to hold onto during the turbulent times is extremely helpful, not only because your decision- making will be much better but because it will also give you a less stressful and therefore healthier life.  Building such a game-plan also produces great learning experiences because it leads you to study cause-effect relationships, and learning is enjoyable as well as crucial to success. So, it will make you happy as well as effective. It was certainly key to the success and joy I had being an investor.

@cz_binance It's good that they made the veASTER lock-up model with up to 208 weeks and weighted rewards because it filters out short term speculators from governance pretty well

Might give it a try.

@cz_binance The same group hit Trivy on March 19 and Checkmarx on March 23, they're chaining compromised credentials from one attack to break into the next target.

Software source code supply-chain-attacks are going to be very common with AI. Stay SAFU!

@APompliano Blackstone raised its tender offer and injected $400m alongside employees just to meet redemptions in full, hard to call that structure anything but fragile

Private credit is hitting its first real redemption stress test. Here’s the situation in plain English: After 2008, banks pulled back from lending due to tighter regulation. Private funds stepped in and filled the gap. They offered flexible loans with floating rates and higher yields than public markets. In a low-rate world, investors chased returns and diversification. The result was massive growth. Assets went from about $900 billion in 2019 to more than $2 trillion. Then rates spiked after the pandemic. Borrowers started feeling the pressure. Defaults began creeping higher, especially in software and tech where AI is disrupting business models. At the same time, underwriting standards had loosened during the boom years. Now yields are compressing as rates ease, and investors are starting to question valuations that are not marked in real time. A few high-profile blowups flipped sentiment quickly. Now redemption requests are rising across semi-liquid private credit funds. These include non-traded BDCs and interval funds that promised some liquidity, but not full liquidity. Here is the problem though. These funds own illiquid loans. You cannot sell them quickly without taking a big discount. So when too many investors want their money back at once, managers have limited options. They can hold more cash, tap credit lines, or sell assets at lower prices. All of those hurt performance and net asset value for the investors who stay. So what do they do? They gate redemptions. Most of these funds cap withdrawals at around 5 percent of NAV per quarter. When redemption requests jump to 9 to 11 percent or higher, which we are now seeing at firms like BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, Morgan Stanley, and Blue Owl, investors do not get all their money back. They get a prorated amount or sometimes a return of capital. In extreme cases, funds can pause redemptions entirely or support the fund with their own balance sheet. This is not a 2008-style crisis. But it is a real stress test of the model. The core issue has always been the same. You are offering periodic liquidity on top of fundamentally illiquid assets. Now we find out whether that tradeoff was worth it.

@kepano I believe obsidian is great because you engage with it daily and you love it. Without analytics that's the only way to build a good product. Passion and obsession at the same time

When everyone is in a frenzy I like that we can do our thing at our own pace.

@PeterDiamandis Military spending went up for 10 straight years globally while basic research gets treated like a luxury we can't afford and so the gap keeps growing.

You can measure the ratio of fear to curiosity in any society. Just look at the ratio of the defense budget compared to the science budget. Humanity is still mostly fear-dominant. But we ARE changing that.

@RayDalio Love that this started as a family plan for when he'd be gone

@NTmoney At least they're proving that open infrastructure beats closed systems

Predictions markets at their best are transparent and global. Polymarket

@pmddomingos At some point one of your agents is going to quietly decide it doesn't need the agent above it and that's when things get genuinely entertaining.

I don’t just have agents doing things for me, bro. That’s so last week. I have agents doing things for agents that do things for agents that do things for agents that do things for me. By next week all my levels of agents will have broken the Internet.

@GadzhiIman Watched a founder celebrate a $50M exit and walk away with maybe $8M after preferred stock, earnouts they never hit and a two year lockup that felt like a prison sentence.

Every time you see someone announce they "sold for $100M+” just know that number means almost nothing until you've seen the term sheet. Earnouts, liquidation preferences, clawbacks, retained equity. Most people walk away with a fraction of the headline number and then the cash flow tap turns off. Everyone celebrates the number but it’s hardly ever the full truth.

@thejustinwelsh I'd add that most employees can't sell their own work for what their employer sells it for.

Your employer didn't hire you because they're generous. They hired you because they can sell your work for more than they pay you for it.