idrissyahmi
31.9K posts
@aispie3_142
I often tweet about anime & songs. Passionate on astronomy & physics. Sometimes sharing thoughts on trading & investment. Sporadic Kdrama, Kpop & chess musings.
My good friend @NickSchmidt invented the weekly chart. Nick also made a great writeup on “character change” & it aligns very closely with how I personally view weekly charts + major bottoms/reversals. Most of the big winners this cycle started with these subtle behavior shifts:
My Favorite Weekly Chart Setup: The "Character Change" This is my go-to setup for getting into new uptrends early, and it’s something I use only on weekly charts. The CC (character change) is all about patience and waiting for clear evidence that the trend has shifted. ⚠️ If you’re looking for quick trades or need to be active, this might not be for you, because these require you to sit after you get in for a long time and let it do it's thing. Why Weekly Charts? Weekly charts smooth out a lot of the noise you see on daily charts. They give you a bigger picture and help you see the trend more clearly. What Is the "Character Change" Setup? This setup is about recognizing when a stock is transitioning from a long downtrend to the early stages of an uptrend. It’s all about waiting for specific signals on the weekly chart that show that it is highly likely the long-term trend is now up. Here’s what I look for: 1. First Higher Low After a long downtrend, I look for the stock to make a higher low on the weekly chart. This alone isn't enough but it's our first piece of evidence that something might be up. 2. HUGE Volume with a Price Pop The other thing to look for is a big surge in volume with a strong price move. This shows real institutional interest. This is our second piece of evidence. You have a higher low + it's first massive push. After this I have confidence the birth of a solid new trend is likely in place. Also the 1st or 2nd above can happen in any order you just want to see both. 3. New 10 Week respect The way you get a low-stress entry with incredible R/R is by waiting now that you have the evidence of a true CC on your side. The 3rd piece of the puzzle where you can enter with extremely low risk if it doesn't work is when you see the stock start to respect the 10-week moving average for the first time. Example 1: $APP Let’s look at APP, which had a huge run after showing this setup and my second best trade of all time. 1. Volume Pop: First, I noticed a big volume spike, but I didn’t jump in just because of that alone, not enough evidence. 2. First Higher Low: After the volume pop, the stock pulled back a bit and made a higher low. That’s when I got interested. As it made that higher low, it started respecting the 10-week moving average. 3. Holding the 10-Week: It then resumes its move being supported clearly by the 10 week again. That’s the final confirmation needed. APP took time to develop this setup. Even though it might look like dumpster diving, since these are weekly charts, the downtrend is long over before it becomes a buy. From there, it just kept riding the 10-week line up , giving you multiple chances to add to your position if you caught it or many chances to get in. Example 2: $PYPL (currently developing) PayPal was dead money for a long time, making lower lows. Then early this year we started developing a CC. 1. Higher Low: This grinded sideways but still ended up being a big higher low. 2. Volume Pop: Here we get a big price push on volume. Technically we had a few before the higher low was confirmed, and an entry could have been established after the higher low because the risk is so low. But this was the clear Volume pop. 3. New 10W Respect: This is final evidence for me, off the volume pop the weakness is supported by the 10W for the first time. Super low risk entry and you can see if this is a real long-term trend then we are still very early. Example 3: $PTON (very early, still developing, and new position) Peloton had been stuck in a downtrend for over two years, so I didn’t even consider buying until it started showing evidence that the downtrend might be done. 1. Higher Low: Instead of breaking to a new low, it held up at a slightly higher level. It’s subtle, but this is a big clue that the character of the stock is shifting. (It was kind of a retest of the same low, not much of a higher low, so you can argue #3 on the chart is also the first higher low. Doesn't matter, by 3 you have all 3 pieces of evidence.) 2. Volume Pop: Next, a significant volume spike paired with a strong price move. But I don’t buy just because of a volume spike—I need more confirmation. 3. Trading Tight into the 10-Week Moving Average: After the volume pop, PTON started trading tightly near the top of that move and right into the 10-week moving average. This is what really got me interested because even if it fails, I can't emphasize enough.... the R/R for these types of setups is off the charts. The big thing here is patience. I don’t jump in while a stock is still in a downtrend. I wait until it’s made a higher low, shown a volume surge, and started respecting the 10-week moving average. By the time I get in, the downtrend has usually been over for a while. I’m letting the stock prove itself first. Quick Recap Here’s what makes the character change setup work: 1. Higher Low on the Weekly: Signals the stock might be done making new lows and could be shifting to an uptrend. 2. Volume Pop: A big volume spike with a price move. This tells you that there is now real interest in this name and adds evidence to support the birth of a new trend. 3. New 10-Week Respect: This helps add further evidence the momentum is on your side and allows you to get in with really low risk if it doesn't end up working. Remember, this setup takes time to develop. The hardest part is the patience. It is a lot of hands off and waiting but thats also how I like my trades. Low stress. Less is more! If you made it here...drop a reply—I’d love to hear your thoughts and questions.
🚨 THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MIGHT BE BUILT ON FAKE REVENUE. Latest corporate filings show that OpenAI and Anthropic alone make up over half of the entire $2 trillion future cloud backlog held by Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon. This massive pipeline is actually being created through a circular accounting trick called a round trip revenue loop. But how it works ? A tech giant gives billions of dollars to an AI startup as an "investment". But hidden in the contract is a strict rule forcing the startup to hand that exact same money straight back to the tech giant to rent their computer servers. Look at the documented case of Microsoft and OpenAI. When Microsoft invested $13 billion into OpenAI, it didn't just give them cash; it gave them "cloud credits" to use Microsoft servers. OpenAI used those exact credits to train its AI models, and Microsoft then turned around and recorded that server usage as brand new "cloud revenue" from a customer. The tech giant is literally paying itself with its own money and calling it a sale. This is why OpenAI’s annual cloud bill has ballooned to over $60 billion, double its actual revenue of $25 billion, kept alive solely by this recycled funding loop. Anthropic runs the exact same play, spending $2.66 billion on Amazon Web Services in just nine months, which was basically 100% of all the money it earned at the time. This manufactured demand triggers a second accounting trick where tech giants book massive paper profits. Every time a startup gets a higher value from a new funding round, the tech giant updates the value of its investment on its books and counts that unearned paper gain as direct profit. In Q1 2026, Alphabet reported a record $62.6 billion profit, but $28.7 billion nearly half, was just a paper markup on its Anthropic investment. In the same quarter, Amazon reported $30.3 billion in profit, but $16.8 billion of it was just an Anthropic paper gain. While Amazon reported record profits, its actual free cash flow collapsed 95% to just $1.2 billion because it had to spend $44.2 billion in real cash to build physical data centers. This has created a massive danger where these giant companies rely heavily on just one or two unstable startups. Microsoft has 49% of its $627 billion future backlog tied to OpenAI, while Oracle has an incredible 54% of its entire $553 billion pipeline relying on OpenAI alone. This perfectly mirrors the 2001 dot-com crash when Global Crossing and Qwest Communications swapped identical fiber-optic network capacity with each other just to book fake sales. Qwest had to erase $1.4 billion in fake income, and Global Crossing went completely bankrupt. The only difference is that the dot-com swaps were illegal, but today's AI loop is fully legal under current accounting rules. This legal loop inflates tech company stock prices, forcing automatic retirement accounts and index funds to buy even more of these tech stocks. It is a self feeding loop where investments, sales, and stock prices all go up on paper without the AI technology ever making real cash profits.
We have been trying hard to produce more videos for our YouTube global channel. (YT @ jlawstock2) One reason we paused was because we received quite a few comments about the speaker’s accent. To be honest, our team does not have a native English speaker. But to me, teaching ability matters far more than having a perfect native accent. Many people can speak fluent English, but not everyone can teach well — and even fewer truly understand my trading philosophy and methodology. So far, Oasis is the coach I trust the most in terms of both teaching ability and understanding my system. She is also much more relatable than using AI voiceover. But I’m genuinely curious: does the accent really matter that much to you, or are those comments just from a small minority?🤔 For our global channel, how much does the speaker’s accent matter to you if the content is clear and valuable? Please vote 👇🏼
@CFlanders7 My favorite part of our conversation the other day: “How many traders have told you to increase size when you’re losing?” “None” “That’s because they aren’t around anymore”
After a friend blows himself up again for the countless time. "Jeez, I follow the my risk management rules 99% of the time... isn't that enough?" No, it's not.
Great question. I saw this in poker too. A lot of guys are great players but struggle mentally with moving up in stakes. An old friend was a great player but once he tried moving up in stakes, the $$ amount would get to him. He would tilt extremely hard at the increased dollar amounts and play very bad. It’s one thing to lose $500 on a trade and shrug it off. It’s another to lose $5000 or $50,000 or $150,000 and shrug it off. Thinking in terms of % helps but I think for guys who put up big numbers consistently that is what holds them back. Qullamaggie said the same thing as well. Few traders push themselves to scale their trading up.
After a friend blows himself up again for the countless time. "Jeez, I follow the my risk management rules 99% of the time... isn't that enough?" No, it's not.
