Alan Bialo

The S&P is 45% AI and 4% energy. The market is massively long the output. Massively short the input. AI runs on power. Every dollar flowing into Nvidia eventually flows into a gas turbine, a transformer, or a transmission line. The market has built a portfolio that ignores its own supply chain. I wrote about it, in my latest article, link in replies 👇

Goldman just put a number on the AI buildout: $7.6T from 2026-2031. They explicitly flag optics as the next “buy out the store” chokepoint after memory. The numbers behind the thesis: +Compute alone is $5.1T of the $7.6T total +Annual AI capex grows from $765B in 2026 to $1.6T in 2031 +Data center cost per MW jumped from $10M (cloud era) to $15-20M (AI era) +A single $50K accelerator depreciates $10K/yr but goes economically obsolete faster than the schedule +NVIDIA’s GB300 NVL72 packs 72 processors per rack, linked by hundreds of thousands of km of cabling In the repot they state: similar episodes of intense, short-term pricing pressure are likely to recur across other critical components such as interconnect, optics, storage, and packaging.” Meaning the same dynamic that just sent memory parabolic is queued up across the entire physical layer of AI infrastructure. The “AI factory of the future” data center will pack 576 GPUs per rack at 500+ kW, requiring liquid-only cooling and millions of GPUs deployed at the >1 GW scale. None of that scales without optics. Memory just ran (still going). Photonics is just warming up. Full disclosure: Goldman is confirming what’s been playing since the late last year. A lot is already priced in. The alpha is front-running institutions, not reading their reports. But $7.6T over 6 years doesn’t get fully priced in 6 months. Plenty of runaway left.

Can we speak facts ? Otherwise this comparison just seems lazy and wrong. $IREN has one of the highest accretive dilution history among the sector with accretion ratio of around 8-9x, as opposed as others that just destroyed value, so a comparison with $SLNH is highly undeserved. So it just seems you keep cherry picking share count increases while ignoring that those shares bought assets generating billions in contracted revenue. The prior 1B ATM funded the transformation that took the stock from $5 to $70. The 6B ATM was filed the same day as the 50k B300 GPU order on March 4-5 and will keep funding the next phase of the same playbook. Despite short term volatility that dilution announcements can take on the stock price, can you explain sell side ratings not agreeing with your take ?

$IREN and $SLNH investors are probably the most braindead communities I've interacted with on X. I've never seen a community so bullish on a $219M MC stock that has a new $1,000,000,000 dilution. And an ongoing $500,000,000 ATM. Then you have $IREN, with $6,000,000,000 active ATM, sold over time into the open market. Maybe, it's a better idea to just go long on a stock without the toxic financing... So you can actually benefit from equity appreciation without just being liquidity? It's just so hard to explain to people the nuances in financial dilution who lack the brain cells. And it just so happens $SLNH gets mentioned positively by $BKKT, $IREN investors the moment after they file a $500M ATM since they need exit liquidity. The company is selling offloading shares directly to these idiots.

$IREN My expectations heading into IREN earnings week. 1) I expect IREN to miss the headline numbers, revenue and EPS consensus estimates. Current (Bloomberg) consensus estimates are: Revenue: Total $216.6M ($83.1M Cloud) EPS: -0.24 In Q1, IREN's Bitcoin wallet generated sales (revenue) of $110.9M, short of consensus by more than 20M. This miss is primarily due to the weakness in the price per bitcoin in Q1, as well as the reduction in hash-rate as the company accelerates disconnecting bitcoin miners in preparation for conversion to GPUs. Fact is, the quicker they can do away with bitcoin mining, the better. At this point, it's frankly inconsequential. My current estimate for AI Cloud revenue is $81.3M but this assumes that the company completed the retrofit of Prince George and the installation of the 23K+ GPUs at that site. Based on the most recent comments from Kent Draper on the Jefferies fireside chat, he confirmed that all capacity (50MW) at PG is currently operating GPUs. Kent's Quote: So our Prince George site- the entire capacity of that site is being used for our existing fleet of GPUs. Taking Kent's words at face value leads me to believe that it's probable the company met their ARR guidance for PG of ">500M in ARR by the end of Q1". When you take into consideration the ARR they exited 2025 with, the number of GPUs in their possession, and the fact that all 50MW were operating GPUs as of late March (per Kent's interview), it allows me to back into the $81.3M AI Cloud revenue estimate. I'd consider this a major win in their AI Cloud execution, but it won't make up for revenue shortfall from consensus. How the market trades these (miss) results will depend on.... 2) I expect IREN to to announce a deal between now and the earnings call. Not because I have any inside information, nor because I think they *have* to announce one, but because I think it's the perfect time for "The Three Cs" to realign. The Microsoft deal is fully capitalized. It's past the commercial and capitalization phase, and now deep in the build-out phase. It's the perfect time for the next one: Capacity: there is 110MW of available capacity at Mackenzie and Canal Flats and another 450MW available at Childress along with everything that just energized at Sweetwater 1 (will be in phases). Their capacity is diverse! They can do liquid and air cooled! Customers: there is no shortage of demand for compute right now. Every industry metric validates it. They've told us for over a year now that there is appetite from customers for well more than 200MW. In Feb they told us that they have *multiple advanced* negotiations with hyperscale and enterprise customers. That customers aren't a constraint - choosing the right long term partnerships is their focus. Capital: the balance sheet is strong and supports growth. Capital is lined up wanting to fund DC builds. The company has access to proven multiple sources of capital. Billions of cash on hand, GPUs you can borrow against, data centers you can borrow against, and now even an ATM you can withdraw equity from. The Three Cs are as aligned now as you could possibly hope for, and I believe there are signs: - Massive hiring spree all over the world, including now in Australia - 147 active openings. Coupled with the massive marketing campaign down under. - Disconnecting of 100MW+ of miners at Childress. You don't disconnect that many miners unless you have plans for that capacity. - Order of 50K air cooled GPUs with 1/3 slated for Childress - Disclosure of the "multi-billion $ deal with software" at the last earnings call. (This wasn't an accident) - Sweetwater energization. -Dan was stateside recently per his tweets at Childress -At every turn a new story about how compute constrained the world is. CCCs aligning. 3) I expect/hope for information on: - Current status of Horizon 1-4. Has Horizon 1 been delivered? If not, why not? - Outlook for VR200 availability and prospects of MSFT taking the VR200 option. - Update on the "multi-billion dollar deal with software" - If they're not going to share what ARR they exited the quarter with, I'd expect an updated contracted ARR number. Last quarter it was 2.3B - I'd expect it to be significantly higher, as I'd expect the last 100M+ at PG to be contracted, and I'd hope they've contracted chunks of the 50K B300 associated with 1.3B of ARR. - Outlook for Sweetwater - when may we see the first operational MW there? - We all see the smoke, but are there actual fires in Australia? - Status of the "other projects in our portfolio that are potentially also included in Batch Zero"

@MilkRoadAI $IREN $NUAI

Chamath Palihapitiya just laid out the most important valuation question nobody on Wall Street wants to answer. For 20 years, the Mag 7 won because they had the greatest business model ever invented, asset- ight software. You write the code once, you sell it to a billion people, the marginal cost of the next customer is basically zero. There is essentially no factories, no raw materials, no union workers, no physical infrastructure, just pure leverage, scale the revenue, barely scale the costs. That's how you get 30x, 50x, 60x earnings multiples and the market was paying for compounding economics that had no natural ceiling. But AI just blew that model up. The hyperscalers, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta are now projected to spend between $600 and $725 billion on capex in 2026 alone, up from $250 billion just two years ago. That number is climbing, not plateauing and it's not just the chips and the data centers, it's the energy contracts underneath all of it. When Microsoft re signed Three Mile Island, they locked in a 20 year forward purchase agreement at more than $100 per megawatt hour nearly double the prevailing spot rate of $60 for wind and solar in the same region. That's a long term liability commitment baked into operating cash flows for two decades. Here's where Chamath's math gets uncomfortable. These five or six companies are now collectively spending so much that their capex has exceeded their free cash flow meaning they can no longer self fund growth from operations alone. In 2025 alone, hyperscalers raised $108 billion in new debt and projections put the total debt issuance over the next few years at $1.5 trillion. These are companies that, for two decades, were net cash accumulators and now they're going to the debt markets like everyone else with term loans, revolvers, and structured credit facilities. That's Chamath's core point and it's a devastating one for anyone still modeling these companies the old way. When a company is asset light, investors pay a premium for that lightness and the multiple reflects the belief that returns on capital will stay high indefinitely, because there's no heavy physical plant dragging them down. But when Google starts looking like a utility locked into 20-year energy contracts, carrying hundreds of billions in debt, spending half its revenue on physical infrastructure, the rational multiple compresses. You don't price a utility at 30x earnings, you price it at 12x. His conclusion is that stop trying to value the hyperscalers themselves and follow the money instead. A trillion dollars a year is flowing out of these companies into power companies, data center operators, chip manufacturers, cooling systems, fiber networks, rare earth metals. The companies on the receiving end of that spending are already underpriced because the market is still staring at the senders while ignoring who's cashing the checks. The asset-light era minted the most valuable companies in human history and the asset heavy era that's replacing it might be the best argument yet for owning everything around them instead.

Claude: IREN’s moat is real and widening. A 1.4 GW energized grid connection in ERCOT’s renewable-rich West Texas corridor is one of the scarcest assets in the world right now. There are probably fewer than 5 single-site, 1+ GW, grid-connected data center facilities operating worldwide right now that also sit in a renewable energy corridor. IREN’s Sweetwater 1 is one of them — you can’t replicate this asset quickly even with unlimited capital.

I don’t think many people realise how amazing this actually is. How many grid connected 1+ GW sites using renewable energy do you think actually exist in the World?? I’ll say there are less than 5! Think about this. IREN are so far ahead of the curve it’s not funny. Now till Nov earnings I believe will be life changing for all IREN shareholders. Congrats @IREN_Ltd and @danroberts0101 love ya buddy!

Sweetwater 1 has been successfully energized – a key milestone in the development of the broader 2GW Sweetwater campus. @danroberts0101, Co-Founder and Co-CEO of $IREN commented: “Delivering Sweetwater 1 substation energization on schedule reflects our disciplined execution, the strength of our supply chain relationships and the efficiency of our vertically integrated development model. It is another example of our ability to design and construct large-scale infrastructure reliably and at speed to meet market demand.” Learn more: iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/d…

$IREN Congratz IREN for another successful milestone achieved. Crown Jewel ready to be monetized to the highest bidder !

$IREN SWEETWATER ENERGIZED!! Sweetwater 1 goes live. Great accomplishment by the IREN Team.

@ASYM_invest @UncleAlpha007 @Umbisam @midlevelcruiser I'll dig some DD on it. The theme is certainly gaining traction, BE crushed earnings by some miles today !

@UncleAlpha007 Potentially interesting @Umbisam @alanbialo @midlevelcruiser

$CGEH the next 10X+ like $BE? Recall, in 2024 $BE started in AI Hyperscale with a 14MW deal with $CRWV. $CGEH currently plays in the ~10MW market BUT $CGEH also makes 800V solutions (which the 2027 market demands for $NVDA Rubin architecture change). $be parlayed its 14MW deal with $CRWV in 2024 into 2GW+ with $ORCL in 2025/2026 $CGEH looks like it could be on a similar path as $BE NFA, DYOD, I am long $CGEH @StockSavvyShay x.com/UncleAlpha007/…

@Umbisam 🤌🤌

Porto Istana Beach, Sardinia, Italy ... Today

@bitcoinbutcher1 The devil wears AI this time.

@alanbialo Just a fad Alan

$IREN $NUAI

Going into next week, some thoughts… If $IREN partners with @AnthropicAI in 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 , the analysts will begin to quantify the share of secured power before rerating $IREN as the off balance sheet financing arm of the most important company in the world that enables @AnthropicAI to scale faster and with more delivery certainty than any other infrastructure provider. The market cap of $IREN currently sits at just under $20b or 2% of @AnthropicAI valuation. This will change. Then consider delivery of Horizon 1-4 to $MSFT as well the any subsequent projects in 🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇦🇺 that emphasize $IREN as a strategic partner that optimizes time to compute while increasingly growing its portfolio of completed data centers with supporting cash flows from high quality tenants that can be used as assets to ♻️ invested capital into the next data center. The patience required to hold $IREN cannot be understated but when you ignore the day to day volatility you begin to realize that the front loaded infrastructure investments funded by 🏧 and convertible notes serve a greater purpose. In a world of delays and regulatory friction, the data center is the asset. Volume the past two trading days exceeded 100m shares without any announcement. Institutions are knowingly buying the 👸 in the 50s Do you think they are here for 60,70? I don’t think so. If you made it this far, the time for show and tell is almost here.

@LEADER_TRADING Leader. Fellow IREN investor here. Don’t sweat over tourists heat. I’ve been following your trades for more than a year and you’re legit. I don’t day trade but your one of the few that I know can do it with a good success rate. Keep it up.

I actually can’t believe how much criticism this post is getting. $IREN “Chill bro, it’s at $52 now” “🤡” “This didn’t age well” It aged extremely well. Read the whole fucking post. I said that i missed an opportunity to GROW MY POSITION. Not REDUCE my position. Wasn’t able to watch the market during these 15 minutes but to me, it would have been an obvious move, having watched almost every 1 min candle this stock has had over the past 2 years. If picking up free shares makes you stupid then you can call me the biggest idiot alive.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the AI CapEx bears have been wrong, are wrong, and will continue to be wrong CapEx growth across the big 4 will probably be ~$1T next year from ~$650B this year And the returns on these investments are looking better and better

@sunxliao And $NUAI ? Belongs to the sector

Blue diamond (1D) status update... $APLD: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $BTDR: 2/3 Blue Diamonds $CIFR: 2/3 Blue Diamonds $CLSK: 2/3 Blue Diamonds $CORZ: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $CRWV: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $DGXX: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $HIVE: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $HUT: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $IREN: 2/3 Blue Diamonds $KEEL / $BITF: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $MARA: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $NBIS: 2/3 Blue Diamonds $RIOT: 2/3 Blue Diamonds $SLNH: 3/3 Blue Diamonds 🔥 $WGMI: 3/3 Blue Diamonds $WULF: 2/3 Blue Diamonds $WYFI: 3/3 Blue Diamonds I'm long Soluna #SLNH with a reasonable target and easy invalidation. NFA. Green day for our neocloud theme! 🫡

$IREN

@Umbisam 👊

$SATS $IREN Increased levered positions

@sunxliao Check $NUAI

Bought a large chunk of $SLNH. Goal is to hold until at least previous highs from last year, with easy invalidation below our gold zone on most timeframes. Every buy or sell I make is based on what our indicators say... right now it's saying buy. NFA! DYOR!