ASoar
15 posts
322310 auros tech was Serenity's last long for the year.
Supposedly
It opened 30% up and he dumped his bags. Every one of his followers is under water on it and he shilled 23 new tickers ever since.
Literally the best to ever do it (rug his followers)
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@cherryPayment @Water4wood Some others like software are doing great. For me the only losses I can’t get rid of is these Taiwanese and Korean stocks.
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非常滑稽！
你在serenity花费1美金的订阅费，你会获得：
1. $sive 最少300%的上涨回报。
2. $aaoi 可能也是最少309%的投资回报
3. $sloif 会获得至少200%的投资回报。
第二个公司是去年涨幅的代表，第一和第三个是直接3个月内发生的事情。
你可以在他所推荐的20个公司里随意选择，然后你亏钱的概率是 10%？
然后，你在Kevin Xu这里花费$199美金，你可以获得：
1. $bot 亏损30%，从他开始发表这个公司开始。
2. $QS 上保持亏损
3. 他完全放弃了 $IREN ，所以你可能亏损50%？
4. $HIMS 上也是亏损。
太棒了，所以有人要订阅 serenity吗？
TW@tw_crypto_
Kevin Xu - Update: - $BOT is down 30% from his post ❌ - $QS was a loss ❌ - Gave up on $IREN ❌ - $HIMS was a loss ❌ $199 Subscription for the above trades. Yikes
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@cherryPayment @Water4wood Sive was in Mar. Maybe I found him too late. So I was saying he is pretty bad “recently”.
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MssCorp (TWE: 6830) Serenity High Conviction Bet（analysis fully grounded in TSMC’s latest public expansion plans and 2026 industry data）：
– this is the functional monopoly in CPO/SiPh inspection (90%+ share targeted, pricing power is real). Long list of customers ($TSM, $NVDA, $AAPL, $AMAT , $LRCX, $ASML , $INTC ) all need to go through them for yields. NVIDIA dedicated AI Chip Zone in US facility = strategic lock-in.
-GS CPO TAM still the anchor: $91B by 2028.
-TSMC CoWoS doubling to 130k-140k wafers per month by end-2026 via AP7 Chiayi (world’s largest advanced packaging hub, CoPoS pilot 2026/volume ramp 2027-28) + AP8 Tainan (P1/P2) + AP5/AP6 upgrades. We are still in the frontrunning window.
Pure TSMC fab expansion model only — no NVIDIA exclusive assumed. Factory-by-factory HG demand: HG is specialized QA/FA tool (not standard per-line gear). Base Assumption~60 units per major packaging “module group” (20 front / 20 mid / 20 back).
Using latest TSMC 2026 data:
AP6 (Longtan/Taichung): Operating + upgrade → ~30 units / MssCorp 25-30 units
AP7 Chiayi: World’s largest, CoPoS pilot → ~45-120 units / MssCorp 40-100 units
AP8 Tainan (P1-P2): Construction/ramp → ~120 units/ MssCorp 100-110 units
AP8 later phases + AP9: 2028+ planning → ~240-260 units / MssCorp 200-220 units
TSMC only total: ~435-530 units / MssCorp 365-460 units
Updated HG model (reflecting monopoly + pricing power): Industry total demand 130-200 units 26-30. With 90%+ monopoly → MssCorp ships 120-180 units (spares + repeat buys). ASP NT$60M (pricing power) + GM 60-75%.
HG contribution build (NT$ bn, cumulative 2026-2030): Equipment sales + Recurring services/consumables (25–45% of equipment value over 5 years) + IP licensing (20–35% of equipment rev, 80-90% margin). Total HG contribution NT$9.5bn–NT$13bn. Core MA/FA business growing 20-30% CAGR from NT$22B 2025 base on top.
Revenue path (NT$ bn):
2026: 30–38
2027: 45–62
2028: 65–88
2029-30+: 180–240/yr (normalized)
Mix shifts hard to high-margin equipment + recurring + IP as CPO goes volume
Share count 51.78M. With the structural monopoly in a critical yield choke-point + TSMC/NVIDIA tailwinds, long-term normalized forward EPS can realistically reach NT$180–240 (US$5.6–7.5).
40–60x forward P/E (standard for AI/SiPh leaders with real moats) → target NT$5,000+. Current MC ~$1.2–1.4B.
tw.news.yahoo.com/2%E5%80%8D%E9%…
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@cherryPayment @Water4wood To be honest USD1 or 100 is not really relevant when investment is 40-50% down like Auros, 20-30% like Towa and others.
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@cherryPayment @Water4wood The probability is not only 10% recently. Look at those Korean and Taiwanese ones. And Auros is a big big loss.
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@ryansfinance Think you’re forgetting $NBIS went from $90 -> $235 -> $180.
$AEHR went from $25 -> $110 -> $77
While $IREN went from $45 -> $70 -> $45
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$IREN back down -34% from $70 to $46.
I wonder if one of the dumbest communities on X finally learned to read?
$NBIS is objectively the better Neocloud, with actual financing.
-> Nvidia didn’t fund $IREN at all. They got a free purchase agreement to let IREN use their logos and dilute for GPUS.
$NVDA actually gave $NBIS capital.
-> $IREN is facing endless dilution like $BKKT, $ASST, $SLNH as retail wealth transfers capital over from $6,000,000,000 ATMs, on a dwindling “5 GW capacity” moat.
$NBIS actually uses equity appreciating financing structures.
And this is reflected in the YTD differences between them both.
I’ve said the same thing last year too. One is up ~100%.
The other is flat, and even negative depending on entry points.
IREN is literally a marketing company at this point by how they manage to convince retail to wealth transfer over capital.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
I still am bearish on $IREN. Algorithms/retail probably read $NVDA + $IREN partnership and bought it up. However, if you look at the realtity, it's just looks like brand agreement giving $NVDA risk-free convertible notes. So $IREN can continue selling their $6,000,000,000 ATM into retail investors. It's the equivalent of a startup using AWS and saying they have an Amazon partnership so give them $6B. This wasn't Nvidia directly funding $IREN yet, just a risk free option to. There's a "5 GW deployment" but I'd rather not be the one buying into the dilution to fund it.
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Just another reminder:
One day after my $SOI post back in March at $40.
Citibank and Kepler called me out and said
“it is very difficult to understand why the action [Soitec] has risen so much”
“Is the enthusiasm of the market exaggerated? That's what Citi thinks.”
Then I got a bunch of negative callouts from local European media.
Unfortunately many retail investors sold after these reports, while institutions had orders in to buy up the float.
2 months later, Soitec is now trading at 140.
With many of these same institutions giving 250 PTs today.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Changed my mind about Soitec ( $SLOIF ) and took a sizable position ~43 for CPO exposure. $NVDA GTC next week biggest catalyst pushing photonics and this architecture. ~1.5B euros MC. Trading at 1x book value and ~2x P/S (very depressed valuations) Genuine monopoly over substrates side for CPO (typically very premium valuations for photonics + even extra premium for monopoly status) Algos and analysts might get confused over market share but it’s an actual monopoly over SOI substrates since they give licenses to other players like Shin Etsu for diversification sake eg. $TSM doesn’t like just 1. I don’t think institutions will wait until next year to frontrun these names like Soitec or $TSEM (and most probably haven’t even heard of these names like $AXTI yet) This timing would be buying the likely bottom of the depressed smartphone cycle, while getting full upside of CPO mid-late 2027 + $NVDA GTC catalyst next week. I personally think it’s a 3x from here so I went long.
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@alexnsoar @Alin38 Sold at 26000. Now at 26750 and seems okish on the charts. Idk i feel like i really bought the top and sold the bottom on this one. Fuck this stock.
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@ThatIsIt11 @aleabitoreddit He probably wont reply on stock losing lol or will just say do not care short term correction for -50%.
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$BOT is the biggest red flag.
NAV is $7.34/share. The stock is now trading at $37.92.
You are basically buying Figure at $200B+ while it’s valued at $39B.
Buying the company is just trading pyramid float dynamics off other retail.
Not the appreciation or underlying fundamentals.
To make matters worse:
There’s $2B dilution as valuation arbitrage as you all get diluted to oblivion.
I got a lot of fund managers dming influencers like myself about it but in reality:
Retail just looks like exit liquidity.
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@DocSynapsee @Alin38 Went up? I havent seen a day up for this stock recently 😂
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8 straight red candles on Auros. Honestly exhausting.
But fundamentally, nothing has really changed for me.
Still hoping the company can show stronger volume and meaningful progress in 2H.
Trying to stay patient.
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@Ichbin233 Regarding timing, it's true that $AAOI has been significantly better and is delivering returns
But it's not Auros's fault either; the entire $EWY is dropping hard
I remain very bullish regarding my thesis on it
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Well, more good news keeps rolling in how strange
I thought $AAOI was headed for bankruptcy
Or at least that's what it looked like when everyone panic sold during the earnings call
Well, this is huge news for $AAOI
$AAOI has been selected by Mediacom Communications to accelerate their network upgrade to DOCSIS 4.0
The implementation will use Quantum18 smart amplifiers and QuantumLink software to transform connectivity across 22 states
What does this involve? It's quite simple:
-Massive deployment to reach 1 million homes by 2026
-Drastic improvements in broadband speed and network stability
-Intelligent remote management via advanced software
$AAOI benefits in the following ways:
The agreement confirms the competitiveness of its Quantum technology against other hardware manufacturers
A project of this scale ensures workload and a presence in critical telecommunications infrastructure for years to come
This is a major validation
It solidifies the company as an indispensable partner in the race toward the 10G standard
It is yet another booming branch for $AAOI
It never ceases to amaze me, and I’m delighted to have it in my portfolio
I told you $AAOI had a long way to go
Sancet@Million_Sancet
As I mentioned, I was going to choose between $322310 (Auros) or $AAOI In the end, I opened a position in $AAOI at $149 Contrary to what many think, the results have been very good The financials aren't what's important in these cases, but rather the projections $AAOI is positioned incredibly well for the CPO ramp up The position in $322310 (Auros) is still on the table I might sell the position, but not for this reason Rather, it's because I need liquidity $SIVE is dropping significantly If it continues to fall, I prefer to buy more This way, I can concentrate my portfolio even further
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@aleabitoreddit Not sure because MSSCORPS TOWA AUROS HB all deep diving.
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Took a month…
But my Shunsin (6451) CPO/SiPh idea is starting to play out.
I’m telling you with all these ideas like $IQE to $SOI, they randomly start going up like 1 month after my thesis posts… it’s extremely uncanny.
Maybe institution copy trading?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Taiwan $NVDA CPO supply chain ide #1: Shunsin (6451 TWSE) - Photonics Packaging at ~$1.4B MC. It's a subsidiary of Foxconn. And Foxconn is ODM for $NVDA. It's almost like Celestial got listed by $MRVL and got a free piggy back ride? Some personal est. 2027 fwd ~20 P/E, that compresses harder into 2028, 2029. Shunsin's optical division openly lists their markets as "CPO 51.2T/102.4T" and "Pluggable XCVR 800G/1.6T. Markets themselves as "Supported by Foxconn's vertically integrated supply chain for fast project ramp" If you look at $TSM COUPE for $NVDA, they don't assemble final fiber arrays/racks, Foxconn does. So $NVDA's CPO networking gear probably goes through Shunsin's alignment and bonding machines? And $GOOGL, $META optical switches probably end up thorough them too since they scaled Vietnam CPO facilities (speculative). Basically you get a free Foxconn piggy-back ride with this company at low forward multiples. Disclosures: I am personally long.
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@aleabitoreddit So far AUROS, TOWA and MSSCORP are dropping like hell for the recent picks.
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For Towa (6315):
Earnings are very nuanced. I got the current ER "Beat" wrong in my original thesis (short term), my bad.
But it's an amazing structural long and setup for H2 2026 rather than H1.
TLDR: Near term bearish algorithmically since they miss the nuance, very positive H2 (markets are forward looking)
Revenue ¥54.36B (+1.7% YoY),
Net Profit at ¥4.59B (-43.4% YoY).
Operating Profit ¥6.91B (-22.1% YoY)
News headlines say "EPS crashed -43.4%" or "order miss" that might trigger an algorithmic selloff.
1. As you've seen with US Towa trading, "EPS crashing -43.4%", and algos might have sold headlines.
-> But this was due to last year, of one-off "compensation for damage" payout and one-time ¥1.3 billion yen stock sales from last year.
-> Also "increased initial costs for new customers in compression equipment." for new equipment is caused profitability losses this quarter.
So a bit of an accounting mirage, not really any profitability issues + scaling new orders, so one-off.
However:
Margin inflection point is already here. Which is the biggest signal.
Full year operating margin was 12.7%. For the annual average to reach 12.7% when Q1-Q3 was hovering around ~10%, Q4 should have been around ~18.4% or something?
Which is extremely bullish moving forward for profitability, and shows HBM compression machines are doing work, compared to legacy equipment.
2. Order book "miss":
"Acceleration expected during the second half of fiscal year 3/27 as front-end process production capacity expands."
This signals $MU, Sk Hynix, and others don't have the floor space ready yet, since they're still building front-end wafer fab lines.
But H2, is setup for massive beat. Demand visibility is there... just revenue/profit ramp deferred to H2.
_
Towa forward guidance forcasted ¥64.0B in Sales (+17.7% YoY) and ¥10.24B in Operating Profit (+48.0% YoY), which signals all time high profitability in the future.
IMO they also sandbagged revenue guidance, since they literally said acceleration second-half but didn't give much of a projection beat.
Japanese companies tend to be ultra conservative too, their dividend hike is a large signal too
Regardless, I think the US selloff was probably just due to negative accounting headlines + lower liquidity. Also I was a bit too early by like 4-6 months.
But Towa is an extremely positive setup for H2. Just not your explosive $SNDK $AAOI 10%+ a day type company.
TLDR: Long term bullish, short term lot of nuances missed with headlines.
Just need to wait a few more months if you have patience. Margins are increasing, revenue/orders deferred H2, dividend hikes, etc.
Oscar Molano@OscarReor
@aleabitoreddit @aleabitoreddit What do you think of TOWA earnings report? I'm thinking of adding a bit more today 🤔
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