@daniel_koss I’ve been looking to get in too. Are you a buyer at these levels?
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synapsee
65 posts
For Physical AI, Harmonic Drive Systems actually looks like one of the best investments to me.
It gets hype here on X, but totally deserves it! This is not a speculative low quality shitco.
Ticker: 6324
Exchange: Tokyo Stock Exchange
Company: Harmonic Drive Systems Inc.
For most international investors, the cleanest way to buy it is probably directly on the Tokyo Stock Exchange through a broker like IBKR.
I would personally avoid random low-liquidity OTC tickers if you can access the actual Japanese listing.
What stands out is that literally all the smartest people I know who understand robotics seem to love this stock.
The main point they keep making:
Harmonic Drive makes best-in-class strain wave gears.
These are essential for co-bots and still essential for humanoids, especially at the elbow and wrist.
Even if bigger joints use QDD or cycloidal gearing, and even if smaller joints end up using something else, the field has not fully settled on one winning architecture yet.
But Harmonic Drive is clearly in the middle of the serious robotics supply chain.
Harmonic Drive gets a huge part of the BOM!
The moat is very strong.
Producing high-quality strain wave gears is technically complex.
Chinese competitors are coming up, but supply-chain risk and dual sourcing make Harmonic Drive hard to replace.
The US and its allies need supply-chain independence from China in humanoids, robotics, and defense.
Even Tesla and others likely cannot just make these themselves anytime soon.
The bull case, which I think is straight up what will happen, is that Harmonic Drive has to grow enormously to meet demand, and this can run for many years.
I think humanoids are a classic example where short-term expectations are overhyped, but the long-term potential is insanely underhyped.
Not financial advice.
I am probably going to add it as a 20% position to my portfolio.
Another name I need to make a Substack post for 🥲😂
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@0Yqxing @asianinvestors Us smart retailers are majority on the swedish ticker as well now. The stock changed hands heavy. I’ve been in since 46 sek i’m not selling anytime soon and i’m sure there’s many more with the same goal.
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@asianinvestors In a surprising turn of events, the European markets did not soil their pants by selling
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$SIVE has exploded once again. Opens up 15% and breaks through 85SEK
This might be my retirement fund and I'm only 20
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Did you listen Sweden?
> $SIVE MSCI Listing + structural inflow
> $6.6M CHIPS act funding
> Jabil 1.6T extreme demand, volume ramp
> Apple next-gen Watch refresh likely using Sivers
> 2 new board members related to M&A
> Nasdaq listing inc
The story keeps getting better.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
$SIVE mass production for 1.6T optical transceivers with $JBL: Is now earlier than expected per JP Morgan Fireside chat. Here's what they announced: > "Relatively dramatic moat" implied with $SIVE laser architectures > Extreme demand for their 1.6T, which was previously unknown in terms of volume. > Faster than expected timelines, pulling revenue realization window forward. The statement: 1. Jabil’s 1.6T LRO: "Goes into different qualifications across the next 1 to 4 months" “The quals can take anywhere between 2 to 6 months" Given its May H1 2026, mass production and revenue realization could begin in anywhere between 3 months to 10 months. So late 2026 with 6.5 month midpoint. Lot of former estimates were H2 2027. 3. Architecturally it's "which is about 11 kilowatts dramatically lower than current 1.6T power profiles" Hyperscalers would like to hear this, and this is the competitive differentiation + relatively dramatic moat proven with $SIVE as the critical photonics chokepoint. 4. "At this point, it's not about share. It's really about keeping up with the organic growth of the entire market." Again this shows that the enormous demand has outstripped supply. The implications are that it’s more of a matter of how much Sivers + Jabil can build together, as anything they make would be bought. This type of statement is just incredibly material for Sivers revenue relative to their current marketcap. The market was previously uncertain about the exact volume demand and commercial timeline from Sivers X Jabil. Jabil just publicly confirmed that the demand for their 1.6T LRO with $SIVE lasers is essentially uncapped.
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It's really not that difficult to post things on X. Every few days it's the same drama, so you can just retweet and hope one day investors will understand.
Lately, the volatility on $OUST has been crazy though. This happens once retail investors step in and the stock gets popular on social media. Instead of institutions stacking gradually, you now have day traders, swing traders, paper hands... controlling the trading algorithms.
It's not worrying for long-term investors as the long-term trend stays clear.
I honestly thought this would happen with $PL. But they seem to be steady as a rock. Apparently, retail investors are looking for the next Planet Labs. Imagine what would happen if they realize that Planet is here to stay and there is no next Planet Labs.
KaizenInvestor@Kaizen_Investor
Funny how quickly people forget. $OUST is a $40 stock but as I explained, but it will take time. Safe LIDAR act will only start in June, so we will only start to see the first results in Q3. Maybe even later as companies will buy some extra cheap Chinese Lidar as stock. They are now still fighting against those cheap Chinese manufacturers. You clearly see that in the EPS and margins. As I said: “Don’t expect to see crazy numbers soon” $OUST will rise, give it time. Starting from Q3, we’ll start to see some improvements.
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@ParadisLabs What’s a good entry price for a first entry? I’ve been looking to get in just was waiting for the dilution overhang to fade.
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$IQE is playing out as expected.
Just so you're aware:
- $IQE raised £81M via $MTSI (£45M) + offer to existing UK shareholders (£36M).
- This de-risks $IQE balance sheet + gains them strategic partnership w/ $MTSI. Which is very bullish longer-term.
- Admission of new shares was approved on Fri 15th May.
I do expect the share price to get to low/mid 30p range:
The market is currently still trading on the pre-Admission share count. I.e. new shares aren't in circulation yet.
June/July/August is when the new shares actually hits the register.
I built my position out over Q4 2025, so don't personally have any rush in DCA'ing at these levels right now.
Paradis Labs@ParadisLabs
Expecting $IQE to dip more from here due to the $MTSI & Retail fundraise: -> to low/mid 30p range on/around May 15th The market is currently still trading on the pre-Admission share count. I.e. new shares aren't in circulation yet. Once Admission is confirmed (the day the new Fundraising Shares are actually issued and start trading), it'll push the price lower toward the theoretical ex-price (low/mid 30s, or maybe below in the very short term). Maths: ~£81M raise at 19.8p = ~400m new shares = 58% discount to 47.6p close transfers value from existing holders So theoretical ex-price = low/mid 30s Imo, wait until then before initiating a position / DCA'ing more. Ultimately, $MTSI investing de-risks $IQE - which remains the dominant long-term positive outcome.
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@alexnsoar @Alin38 Sold at 26000. Now at 26750 and seems okish on the charts. Idk i feel like i really bought the top and sold the bottom on this one. Fuck this stock.
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@DocSynapsee @Alin38 Went up? I havent seen a day up for this stock recently 😂
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@quanticinsider I’m thinking of exiting now. Blindly bought shares at a 45K average. Steep drop made me lose 10-11K on the position. What even is the max pain at this point? What do you suggest on exiting?
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I’m watching Auros closely. If we don’t see a strong acceleration in Q2, I’ll exit the position completely, rotate into more defensive assets, and keep the rest of the portfolio.
What’s your take?
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Hey @thatisit11
Auros Technology just released their Q1 2026 results. A couple of key things stand out:
- The CEO and CFO sold (or didn’t exercise options on) over 50,000 shares recently.
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Is $IREN closer to $25 or $100?
The bears keep telling me $30 is next… but the bulls can smell $100 soon.
Who’s right?
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@ParadisLabs worrisome for me, doesn’t build trust at all unlike $BE.
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@ParadisLabs Do you think $FLNC upside is still there despite the dilution? Can the hyperscaler deals bounce it up substantially when they are announced or is this dilution going to cap that? I’m thinking of increasing my position but the fact that management doesn’t know own more than 1% is
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Overlooked AI supply chain chokepoints:
According to new analysis from World Economic Forum.
1. Energy
2. Water/Cooling
3. Minerals
4. Land
List of key names in each chokepoint:
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1. Energy:
- $GEV: one of only Western HD gas turbine OEMs + $163B AI backlog.
- $VST: 2nd largest U.S. nuclear operator + 20 yr PPAs w/ $META & $AMZN AWS.
- Mitsubishi Heavy (7011): HD gas turbines, Sold out into 2028 w/ 2x capacity expansion planned to meet demand.
- Siemens Energy: huge order book €136B w/ 60% of turbine orders tied to data centers.
- $BE: 2.8 GW MSA for $ORCL fuel cell capacity + Brookfield $5B AI infra partnership to deploy fuel cells across AI factories globally.
- $FLNC: battery energy storage systems + software e.g. Mosaic. MSA w/ 2 hyperscalers.
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2. Water/Cooling:
- Daikin Industries (6367): Critical fluoro/refrigerant supplier for low-GWP coolants used in direct-to-chip systems.
- AGC (5201): fluorochemicals + electronic materials (CMP slurries, mask blanks).
- $MOD: chillers + CDUs + data center coils. DC segment growing 50%+ + approaching ~30% of rev.
- $NVT: liquid cooling enclosures + busways, Partner in $NVDA Blackwell ecosystem.
- AVC (3017): named by $NVDA at GTC 2026 as one of four standardized cold-plate suppliers for Vera Rubin.
- Auras Technology (3324): $NVDA GB300 cold plates 25% mkt share. $AMD vapor-chamber certified.
- Delta Electronics (2308): Co-leader w/ $VRT in CDUs for GB200 racks.
- Wiwynn (6669): hyperscaler ODM rebuilding around liquid-cooled MGX/HGX racks.
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3. Minerals:
- $FCX: largest publicly traded copper producer
- $MP: permanent magnets critical in DC HVAC + robotics.
- $AXTI: InP, GaAs substrates for optical interconnect (CW laser sources for CPO)
- $IQE: Epi wafers for VCSELs.
- $VNP: Gallium/germanium oxides for semiconductor substrates.
- Tri Chemical Laboratories (4369): Hafnium precursors for high-K gate dielectrics. Sole-source positioning into $TSM / $INTC / Samsung.
- Tokuyama (4043): Japanese poly + IPA + photoresist materials. Multi-product AI semi supply chain exposure.
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4. Land:
I don't personally see much alpha in land.
But AI campuses need large footprints for compute, power + cooling.
-
There are honestly so many names in each chokepoint lol.
So have to focus on purer-plays where AI-driven revenue drives a significant % of company growth.
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@Batteryboyyy Not good. Insiders knew the earnings were bad. Sold beforehand. Bunch of bagholders created including me. Genuinely thinking of taking losses for tax reasons and putting it somewhere else. Where will the selloff stop?
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Auros quarterly results trend (KRW)
2026 Q1
Revenue: ₩6.8B
Op. Loss: -₩6.8B
Net Loss: -₩5.1B
2025 Q4
Revenue: ₩13.8B
Op. Loss: -₩1.6B
Net Income: ₩0.4B
2025 Q3
Revenue: ₩7.6B
Op. Loss: -₩5.8B
Net Loss: -₩5.4B
2025 Q2
Revenue: ₩13.9B
Op. Loss: -₩0.7B
Net Loss: -₩1.0B
2025 Q1
Revenue: ₩16.9B
Op. Loss: -₩0.3B
Net Loss: -₩0.4B
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@Matrix_B0SS @aleabitoreddit What about their differences in $IREN? 😂
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I have a feeling @aleabitoreddit is Leopold Aschenbrenner
There are similarities between him and Serenity they both are AI researchers and they both invest in AI stocks
I think Serenity is using two faces, one for retail and one for his fund.
Leopold might end up buying $SIVE
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a legend, but I'm not quite sure he can beat 3152.77% YTD in the Serenity Awareness fund. That being said, I've hit 23 different longs this year with 100-1000%+ YTD. 1. $AXTI 2. $AAOI 3. $SIVE 4. $LITE 5. $IQE 6. $AEHR 7. $CRCL 8. $EWY 9. Unimicron 10. Nitto Boseki 11. $OSS 12. $GDRZF 13. $RPI 14. $SOI 15. $ALRIB 16. $SNDK 17. $SIMO 18. $VPG 19. $TSEM 20. $ARM 21. $MRVL 22. $INTC 23. $LPK Do you remember all of these anon?
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Also, there was supposed to be earnings a day or two ago but it hasn’t happened yet?? The devil on my shoulder is saying sell at a heavy loss and go for another high risk play to make up for the losses but at the same time it is heavily oversold at this point with a PT of 43000.
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$CRWV is down over 20% in the last three trading days and this is starting to look like a very interesting entry.
The earnings call is what sent this stock lower but seems like an overreaction.
Revenue came in at $2.08 billion. Up 112% year over year. Beat estimates by $110 million.
The strongest bookings quarter in company history. Revenue backlog hit $99.4 billion up from $66.8 billion at year end.
10 clients now committed to spending at least $1 billion each. Anthropic signed a multi-year deal. Meta expanded to $21 billion.
Nvidia invested another $2 billion in equity during the quarter.
The market sold it because Q2 guidance came in at $2.45 to $2.6 billion versus the $2.69 billion consensus.
And capex guidance was nudged up to $31 to $35 billion for the year.
That is what caused a 20% drawdown.
This company has a $99.4 billion revenue backlog. 36% of that converts within two years. 75% within four years. Full year revenue guidance maintained at $12 to $13 billion. Annualized revenue exceeding $30 billion targeted by end of 2027.
Nvidia as a strategic investor and primary GPU supplier. Microsoft. Meta. Anthropic. OpenAI. All committed customers.
The capex is not waste. Every dollar of it is tied to contracted backlog. They are building infrastructure that customers have already agreed to pay for on take-or-pay terms.
Wells Fargo raised their target to $155.
Deutsche Bank raised to $135. Roth Capital raised to $150.
A $99 billion backlog company growing revenue 112% year over year down 20% because Q2 guidance missed by $190 million.
Seems like good value here. $CRWV
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@finance_eng Katılıyorum, bu parayla fonlara gerek yok. Paranı katlama ihtimali yüksek 2-3 hisseye dağıt. NBIS kalsın gerisini sen ara bul. Düşüş olursa AAOI güzel.
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Photonics is the next quantum.
Meaning it’s going to get decades of R&D and nothing will come from it.
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