
dawsbry
1.4K posts

dawsbry
@macatstarr
veteran/trader /ES/SPY/SPX exclusively (no overnight risk) /cattlemen (red/black angus)


"Low volume rallies are suspicious." No they're not. We tested it. 22 years of SPY and QQQ data. Every day where volume dropped below 50% of the 50-day average — the quietest of the quiet. 268 episodes. Forward 10-day win rate: SPY: 70.6% QQQ: 68.2% Forward 20-day win rate: SPY: 65.4% QQQ: 69.7% 7 out of 10 low-volume days, the market was higher two weeks later. Is the edge better than just being long? No — baseline win rate is 62%, so the difference isn't statistically significant (p = 0.21). But the claim isn't that low volume is bullish. The claim is that "low volume is suspicious" and bearish. The data says the opposite. Low volume days go up at a slightly higher rate than normal days, not lower. The logic is simple: If volume is low and price isn't dropping, sellers aren't showing up. That's not a fake rally. That's a market with no supply. Path of least resistance = up. "35M in volume today. DEAD." Dead volume, alive market. That's what 22 years of data shows. $SPY $QQQ









The S&P 500 just hit a new record high.




















