Ballpoint

So I'm halfway through book two of Red Rising on your rec (excellent, thank you). I see a fair amount of Darrow's confidence in your work. It reminded me of the above. There's one lingering issue in all the books' smartness, and there's loads more intelligence here than most fiction--its that it always works out. Every threaded needle. Because it has to. The hero has to have an arc. A funny take on this i saw shared recently was Louis CK's rip of the "how bout them apples" scene from GWH. The scene only works because it has to pull itself off. The hero wrote it. Zero chance the zinger fails...a long winded wrap around to my sincere advice because I think you are smarter than most of fintwit--we can author perfect plans, but that doesnt mean they work out. Randomness. Chaos. Call it what you will. The Iran War is now a ball bouncing on a roulette wheel (with yes, many numbers colored red white and blue, but bouncing nonetheless)... A tough place fintwit (wall st too): Everyone must have a glass ball. Why Blankfein was wise to say- "we dont make predictions, we manage risk." Keep up the great work. Narrow uncertainty, but never eliminate it.

@TMTLongShort I think my one pushback, if requesting, is the confidence we can keep threading needles. We're awfully vulnerable right now fully deployed. The best laid plans of mice and men...hence my comment to have some grace with allies the other day, we'll need all the friends we can get

A world where the U.S. was Chinas primary export market when you spiked global energy prices it hurt American consumption and Chinas economy equally. A world where Europe and Southeast Asia are Chinas primary export markets and you spike global energy prices while keeping American energy prices low via export restrictions and price controls is one where China gets wrecked, Europe goes into recession and America chugs along blissfully unscathed. Remember that the primary input for stagflation are elevated energy prices. Remember that Europe was already anxious about de-industrializing after losing Russian energy. Further exacerbated with the subsequent flood of Chinese exports. Remember that China is already dealing with torched margins, has no ability to push price higher if input costs increase and has destroyed a generation of domestic propensity to consume via a housing bust. Remember that Europe and China have massive levels of debt with the exception of Germany while all parties feel compelled to push the throttle on military build ups which none can really afford. You think you are complex thinkers. You think you see the world clearly. I am telling you there is more complexity and third-order effects than you can fathom and at the very least approach what’s happening with humility. I can absolutely be wrong about all of this. In the framing, in diagnosing the objective, in assessing their risk tolerance and in predicting the outcome. But I know that and post in the hopes that people can push back to harden my thesis. But what you shouldn’t do is simplify a complex machine into a couple of easy to digest propagandized tropes. That’s intellectual laziness. You’re better off scrolling TikTok for that. 🫡

@Duderichy Sofar?

@TMTLongShort Parenting isnt as smooth as option 1 sounds. Its more like a sudden heart attack: GET AWAY FROM THERE and then trying to explain the severity for the hundreth time while thanking heaven you escaped a trip to the hospital for the 101st time

I’m in my early 30s and still haven’t raised a kid. But I’d imagine as a parent you have two options when it comes to a toddler who keeps trying to touch a hot stove. Option one you sit the child down and explain patiently why touching something hot is bad and detrimental to your health. Option two is you let the child touch the stove and stand ready to pull its hand away before they are burned irreparably. Every president since Bush Sr. has defaulted to option one. Trump has decided that option two is the only rational path forward. But he can’t wait for the toddler to bumble around the kitchen for too long since he has elections coming up so he purposefully turned up the stove to max heat and then grabbed the kids hand and slammed it onto the stove. Child abuse? Probably. Effective lesson? It’s about to be. Europe needs pain. It needs to be reminded why it relies on our overwatch. Either that or we turn isolationist. There is no in between. The toddler was born retarded unfortunately and reasoning with it just doesn’t work.

@MetaMorpehus @MacroTactical "Rickey's the best. Rickey's the best."

Train your mind to replay countless repetitions of past success whenever you experience fear or doubt and you automatically become reassured of all the ways you can do it again.

@anotherfilmfan that guitar is butter

Best needle drop of all time

@VolatilityQ There are artists among us

@signulll @micsolana Surfer or the wave?

her movement had such a massive impact on american life. i don't think even she understood the 2nd & 3rd order effects it would have & the lasting elements associated with it. not saying any of it is good or bad, just stating her cultural impact cannot be ignored esp when the entire zietgiest was shifting, her voice was at the top for a while.

I hear market participants call the Trump delay nonsense. I'd remember many lives are at stake. Whatever the reasons, celebrate thought going into them, and respect for the lives impacted by the fateful decision.

@TMTLongShort Foreigners in the same bed

Not enough thought has been given to how this divergence is accelerating and what that means for the predictive power (or lack thereof) of polling data. Looksmaxxing and groypers are all downstream of an accelerating gender war that most people on here are blissfully unaware of. 2024 was impacted by a strong sentiment re abortions which drove female turnout. But the young male demo is being activated in more ways than one. Starting with Kirk and snowballing ever since This will impact 2028 elections.

@PixelCNinja Pizza Hut. Every time.

Out Run (1986) by Sega wasn’t built as a traditional racing game, but as a “driving experience” by Yu Suzuki. Instead of laps or opponents, the focus was on freedom, letting players choose branching routes across multiple stages, each with different scenery, traffic patterns, and difficulty, leading to several possible endings. Technically, it was powered by Sega’s Super Scaler hardware, allowing smooth sprite scaling that created a real sense of speed, something few games at the time could match. The deluxe cabinet took it even further, physically tilting and moving with the road, turning it into a full-on arcade attraction. Its soundtrack by Hiroshi Kawaguchi was just as groundbreaking, giving players a choice of radio stations like “Magical Sound Shower,” helping define the game’s laid-back, road trip vibe. That mix of tech, music, and design is why Out Run is still seen as one of the most influential arcade racers ever made.

@tszzl Lo

i wish they would make the mythical mind rendingly entertaining movie from infinite jest. i wish they would make the perfect 10 second clip that has me laughing orgiastically for hours. and failing that, explore the space so thoroughly that we become convinced that it doesn’t exist. humanity is far too impressed with itself

@KeenanPeachy So great. The popcorn appeal masks how genuinely excellent a film it is.

Pretty Woman was released 35 years ago this weekend. What does it tell us about who Americans are (or used to be)? open.substack.com/pub/peachykeen…

"Touch grass," is popular. Need a phrase like that for simple old hugs. I don't know, Touch Warmth. X could use a lot more of that warmth

@HayekAndKeynes Poor kids. Not seasoned enough to know its all shock value. Start to think they're getting actual advice. More and more agreeing with social bans til 18.

Every generation has someone like this. A few decades ago it was Tucker Max. Before that there was Charles Bukowski. They all have more success than your average guy because the women they encounter appreciate the novelty. That said, nice guys do get steamrolled and in a world of hyper-sexuality and feminism but the takeaway should not be that this schtick is the way. This is just the result of a world of kids with no, or absentee parents, devoid of a faith tradition, and don’t know how to treat other human beings. The takeaway is that the world is heading in this direction and it’s sad. Don’t encourage it.

@prpl8 Great video. Good for Jim Breuer

another great example: Chris Farley youtube.com/watch?v=47GFQF…

Its always been curious to me how we love Hunger Games (and its dystopian cousins) without acknowledging we are District 1. Pity will not be ours for asking.

If you see the world as a garden, every day is a garden. If you see it as a RISK board, every day is a conquest... Sigh. The world is full of so many lovely gardeners. We're run by the dice rollers...

@RamboVanHalen @marblesoftcore I saved Latin. What did you ever do?

@marblesoftcore I watched Rushmore last night. Still great after all these years.

Need movie recs. Still have 6 hours to go.😴 ✈️

@alitaylor Steinbeck's novellas would be a nice off ramp. Wasted on middle schoolers, wonderful as an adult

i am almost done reading east of eden, which i am very sad about, because i am really loving this book what book should i read next? ideally something that will scratch a similar itch

@kristapley You're right. Youtube will seal it. The big screen's turned small. Curious why I'm sad about it, I typically regretted staying up, but it's the annual ritual--pay tribute to the magic