Griff

Is this… the David West that played in the NBA???

Pretty sure there’s models for expected make percentage that factor in distance, site, weather, etc Would be interesting to see this same chart as “Opponent Made FG % Above Expected” to see who got relatively lucky/unlucky with opponent kickers

@PipsNBA Hell yeah 🐐

The last 5–6 weeks have been insane. Won more than ever, especially for this part of the season. When I zoom out, it’s honestly wild that I get to do this for a living. At 14–15 I was good at math, ultra-competitive, loved sports, and hoped to be a sports analyst one day. Today I’ve somehow combined all of that, watching NBA games, going deep into the data, doing the research, and competing against other sharp minds. On top of that, I started a company with one of my best friends, work every day with an amazing group of people, and pour everything I know into a product I’m genuinely proud of. Very grateful and blessed. Life is good.

Just stumbled upon an interesting trend that’s active tonight Spread is 4.5 Total between 44.5 and 46.5 16-47 OU (25.4%)

Since 2001, the team who was the bigger favorite on average over the year: 3-21 ATS 7-17 SU Average lines this year: Seahawks: -4.3 Patriots: -3.5

Feel like this post should be about going for 2-for-1 instead of winning the jump ball

@BillsandBeers @JustifiedBecuz @john_iller @HalToHell Fourth down at the 1 yard line. Calling timeout over delay of game 100% of time

@JustifiedBecuz @john_iller @HalToHell I can’t imagine those scenarios.

It took 150 years for the smartest baseball minds in the world to figure out that the best hitters should hit the most

Technical free throws not being shot by the best free throw shooter on the floor Still happens today

This Indiana team gonna make me tear up. You can see how much they care about each other. Cignetti is the man

There are real people like this that are paid to talk about sports

the Josh Allen discourse is baffling for the record i think Stafford is MVP but Allen is clearly the best player in the NFL this effort to discredit Allen can only be explained by 2 things 1) Irrational hate for Allen 2) Irrational investment in who wins MVP

Happy Thanksgiving everyone Teams on a short week coming off an OT game are 7-25 ATS (21.9%)

Passing out of heavy formations (12p, 13p, etc.) is the current NFL meta right now, spearheaded by teams like the Seahawks, Patriots, Chiefs, and Rams (post bye). I wanted to dig more into this through 10 weeks of the 2025 season, and I found some interesting data points: Starting with efficiency out of these various formations, I grouped them by 1 TE (11, 01), 2 TE/FB (12, 21), and 3+ TE/FB (13, 22, 23) sets. Here are the results: Yards per pass attempt: + 1 TE: 6.96 + 2 TE/FB: 7.41 + 3+ TE/FB: 7.67 Completion Percentage: + 1 TE: 64.2% + 2 TE/FB: 68.6% + 3+ TE/FB: 66.0% A notable uptick in efficiency when passing out of heavier sets. On the same note, I ran the correlation between running heavy personnel and team passing efficiency as a whole. I was pretty surprised when the R-squared (correlation) was just 0.052, indicating that passing efficiency was not really influenced by formation. Just to experiment, I decided to remove three teams from the dataset. Those 3 teams were the ones above a 50% rate of heavy personnel, which were the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens. I deemed a greater than 50% rate to be the benchmark for where teams switch from running heavy personnel by choice to running heavy personnel out of necessity (lack of WR talent). When removing these 3 teams, the R-squared shot up to 0.316, increasing the correlation between heavy personnel and total passing efficiency by over 6x. This 0.316 number is a VERY strong correlation for a non-descriptive stat (ie: total yards, TDs, etc.). For reference, this would be just slightly less effective in terms of predictiveness of offensive passing efficiency than a team's adjusted completion percentage, and more predictive than catchable throw rate. Passing out of heavy personnel, therefore forcing defenses into more base sets with less capable pass-defenders on the field, has unlocked high-end passing efficiency for offenses. Look no further than the most efficient passing game in the NFL this year in the Seattle Seahawks (leading in EPA and yards per attempt) to see the perfect example of this, who is running heavy personnel at the 5th highest rate in the NFL. All data here is of course per the @FantasyPtsData data suite.

Kind of a crazy stat from @Brentley12 on @minakimes show The last time the Panthers won as a favorite was Week 3 2021 Since then they are 0-10 as a favorite

@knechthedots @BillSimmons Totally agree. The problem is the ceiling of a team like that is very limited IMO, add in the off court stuff and you can see why the market for him is not really there

I hear his name similarly affiliated with other orgs with offensive schemes that would replicate everything that isn't working for him...he needs a place like Dallas. Lob threats, floor spacers, PnR schemes. Keep him far away from Miami lol. I'd say phoenix but that new scheme too

How do you open your pod with a Ja to Miami trade idea without mentioning that Miami has been running the same low-frequency pick and roll offense that Ja hated in Memphis last year? @BillSimmons

Throwing something on the grill today

It's been almost 40 years since I created Offensive Ratings for teams. I was a college kid. I don't know if I dreamed it would be used so much. My lens was that it helped *me*. Am very happy that the sport embraced the metrics and hope that it helps others as much as it did me.

This will end up a massive Jets W

NBA is back and we just dropped "Closing Lines Mode" 🔥 Plain hit rates suck and PropsMadness is always a step ahead. Here’s why 👇 Three angles on JJJ: 1) Current line (22.5): 42.5% hit rate (34/80) - line seems high 2) Closing Lines Mode: 53.8% (43/80) - basically a coin toss. Books adjust. 3) PropsMadness context: vs bad defenses like the Pelicans, he averaged 26.2 pts with an 80% hit rate (12/15) against closing lines. Hit rates alone won't cut it. Books are getting smarter, so should you. Join PropsMadness.