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@bragos81

Katılım Eylül 2018
131 Takip Edilen35 Takipçiler
Luke Savage
Luke Savage@LukewSavage·
Amid all the inane chin-stroking and mystification that goes on to explain politics today, the mental circumlocutions about how someone like Trump was elected, the pained speculations as to why liberal democracy is crumbling and so on, stuff like this is immensely clarifying.
Joe Allen@Joe___Allen

Closing in on two golden decades.

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Michael Bento
Michael Bento@MichaelPBento·
Hourly volume this low over the last two days is the market holding it's breath. Now that can go either way when the market exhales, we could shoot up on a sigh of relief, or we can drop hard on a scream of fear. When looking at the hourly bollinger bands we can see they have been tightening as well. So SPY is setting up to make a big move, which I think will be to the downside, but I can't say that for 100% certain. Either way buckle up.
Michael Bento tweet mediaMichael Bento tweet media
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
The reason he doesn't know what to do next is because he has NO good options. He is presented with a Devil's Alternative: accept a defeat that would destroy his presidency, significantly worsen the US strategic position globally, thrust the US out of the Arabian Peninsula and destroy his presidency OR a land invasion which would be massively costly and almost certainly not bring strategic victory. What would you do?
Andrew Neil@afneil

ANDREW NEIL: This is the real problem with Trump’s War: he doesn’t know what to do next. mol.im/a/15704931 via @DailyMail

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spoop@bragos81·
@dyedxo wait how r u guys reading it
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dyed.
dyed.@dyedxo·
as odd as this e-dating site is i can see some genuine kindness behind this little paragraph
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Henry
Henry@henry_bayes·
@bragos81 @JPATrades Ok who cares. John’s puts are worthless whether they expired yesterday or on Monday. That’s all that matters. Are you one of his bots? LOL
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spoop@bragos81·
@henry_bayes @JPATrades yeah for sure bro every month they revise the previous months job numbers by increasing size but surely this months numbers are accurate
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Henry
Henry@henry_bayes·
@JPATrades Did you miss the part where THIS MONTHS job gains were 2x expectations? Is this engagement bait? SHOW ME LESS LIKE THIS, SHOW ME LESS OF JOHN TRADES MBA
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J.
J.@PresentWitness_·
@KennethKit45151 It very well could be. I dumped half of mine on the open and watched the rest go to zero. Reloaded at the close.
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J.@PresentWitness_·
US stock market closes green despite oil rising 11%. The golden age of market manipulation.
J. tweet mediaJ. tweet media
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spoop@bragos81·
@chargersownme truth is u had a window of opportunity where she was interested and u failed to seize it just gotta go next
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BoltsandBuckeyes
BoltsandBuckeyes@chargersownme·
This is obviously long story short but basically thought I was going to go talk to her after we talked initially (mutual friends at bar) and I also literally just got there. Got drunk and never met back up with her. Am I just fucking chopped
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BoltsandBuckeyes
BoltsandBuckeyes@chargersownme·
Can someone genuinely explain this to me I’m at a bar in Columbus. Girl comes UP TO ME and says oh we had a class together. I said oh yeah awesome. Match with her on hinge week later. Say hey I tried to find you after to get your number. No response. Am i missing something?
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spoop@bragos81·
@Khosichilla @Barrry972 @s_xcellence the real problem with deadpool is the skill floor required to be useful is so high that id say (at least until celestial?) more often than not they r just pretty useless even though they have potential to be BiS
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Khosichilla
Khosichilla@Khosichilla·
@Barrry972 @s_xcellence He’s not bad, but he’s not meta level. Imagine if his aerial shit had the same amount of punch as phoenix does
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Andz Sy
Andz Sy@andzsy·
@phoebesaid @shanaka86 People voted Trump in part because he said he wouldn’t start wars. He broke that promise.
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86·
JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

Right now, in barns and equipment sheds across the American Midwest, farmers are making the most consequential decision of this war. Not generals. Not senators. Farmers. At $683 per ton urea, corn economics have collapsed. Nitrogen is the single largest input cost for corn production. At pre-war prices a farmer could justify 180 pounds per acre and expect a margin. At $683 the math breaks. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria. They do not need the molecule trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz. The seed decision is being made this week across roughly 90 million acres of American cropland. Once the planter rolls into the field, the choice is irreversible. Corn seed in the ground stays corn. Soy seed stays soy. The acreage allocation locks in. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. That report will tell the world how American agriculture responded to the Hormuz blockade. But the decisions it captures are being made now, in conversations between farmers and agronomists and seed dealers who are looking at nitrogen prices and making the rational economic choice: plant the crop that does not need the input you cannot afford. Every acre that shifts from corn to soybeans tightens the corn balance sheet for the rest of the year. Corn feeds livestock. Corn feeds ethanol. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually, consuming roughly 43 percent of the US corn crop regardless of price. That demand is inelastic. If acres shift and production falls while the mandate holds, corn prices spike. Feed costs spike. The protein cascade reverses. The US cattle herd sits at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry and pork margins that were benefiting from cheap feed compress when corn crosses $5 per bushel. This is how a naval blockade 7,000 miles from Iowa reaches the American grocery shelf. Not through oil. Not through shipping. Through nitrogen. The farmer cannot afford the molecule. The molecule cannot transit the strait. The farmer plants soy instead. The corn supply tightens. The ethanol mandate consumes its fixed share. The remaining corn reprices. The feed reprices. The meat reprices. The grocery bill reprices. The decision is not political. It is arithmetic performed on a kitchen table by a person who needs to plant in three weeks and cannot wait for a ceasefire, an escort convoy, or an insurance normalisation that the Red Sea precedent says takes years. The deepest penetrator in the American arsenal cannot reach a sealed Iranian doctrinal packet. But the fertiliser price it failed to resolve is reaching every planting decision on 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. The war’s most irreversible consequence is not happening in a bunker. It is happening in a barn. And by the time USDA publishes the data on March 31, the seeds will already be in the ground. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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spoop@bragos81·
@Bigvadrouiller1 looked it up and the Armagnac ultimately were defeated/gave up when the Burgundians received backup
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Bigvadrouiller
Bigvadrouiller@Bigvadrouiller1·
This is why you should always have disciplined soldiers with you during siege surrender negotiations: "At the siege of Senlis, on April 10, 1418, while the Armagnac army was encamped before the fortifications, a group of Burgundian burghers and soldiers suddenly approached. They agreed to surrender on one condition: that the charges against them be civil and not criminal. Count Bernard VII of Armagnac and his troops, being weary, agreed. But suddenly, from within the ranks of the Armagnac army, a soldier said: "When we enter, we will seize your furniture and abuse your daughters and wives before your very eyes." A skirmish ensued with crossbows, bows, and culverins with heavy losses on both sides, nullifying the compromise.
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Mondeju
Mondeju@Mondeju1·
@ashwinjain_1 @marlowxbt “ Biggest win: put in $427, walked away with $11,816. ROI 2,663%.” He is not doing ONLY 3c arbitrage
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Marlow
Marlow@marlowxbt·
Guy worked analyst at Goldman Sachs. Salary $180,000/year. Quit in December no explanation. Colleagues didn't understand why. Month later someone from team found his wallet on Reddit. Username matched his old GitHub. distinct-baguette. $626,270 profit. 35,059 predictions. Since October 2025. → Wallet: @distinct-baguette?via=marlowxbt" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@distinct-bagu… He quit Goldman when side project started making $180,000 per month instead of per year. The wallet: Only 15 minute windows. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP. Biggest win: put in $427, walked away with $11,816. ROI 2,663%. Strategy: When market panics YES drops to 48c, NO to 49c. Together 97c. One GUARANTEED pays $1. Buys both for 97c. Waits 15 minutes. Collects $1. Keeps 3c. 3 cents × 35,059 times = $626,270. Goldman pays $180K/year for analysis. He makes $180K/month buying math errors. Managing Director messaged via LinkedIn: Come back. We'll match. He didn't reply. Wallet still active. Goldman still trying to reach him.
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Jarrod Watts
Jarrod Watts@jarrodwatts·
> be demis hassabis > spawn in london > age 4, become child chess prodigy > win chess tournaments > reach ~2300 elo > face danish chess champion > game lasts hours > position is a forced draw > too exhausted to see it > resign > danish guy laughs and shows the draw > feel sick to my stomach > realise something is wrong > chess is too narrow a problem > brilliant minds wasting decades on it > decide not to become a chess pro > buy a computer with chess winnings > teach self to program from books > start hacking on games with friends > decide to finish school early > apply to cambridge age 16 > cambridge says you're too young > forced to take a gap year > enter a video game coding competition > win > get invited to join bullfrog game studio > too young to be legally employed > work there anyway > build ai system inside theme park game > game becomes a global hit > turn 17 > offered £1,000,000 to stay and build games > turn it down > go to cambridge anyway > decide games aren't enough > study computer science > interested in agi since 2007 > most people laugh at this idea > realise brain is only form of agi we have > want to learn more about human brain > go back to school > study neuroscience > realise academia moves too slow > decide to build a company instead > start deepmind > pitch “solve intelligence” > investors don’t know what that means > get to meet peter thiel for one minute > wonder how to convince him > spend one minute playing chess with him > pitch "solve intelligence" again > he invests > go into total stealth mode for two years > no website > secret office > candidates think it’s a scam > start to train ai in simulated environments > train ai with reinforcement learning > train ai on pong first > it sucks > can't win a single point > keep trying > wait it won a a point > wait it's winning every single point > it actually works > expand to train on any two-player game > chess first, then move on to go > beats world champion at go > beats pros at starcraft > games is not enough > want to push into science > realise compute is the bottleneck > know this will take decades > google offers ~$400m > not the highest price > but they offer unlimited compute > accept > refuse to become a product team > stay in research mode > determined to use ai for good > need to figure out what's next > land on protein folding > 50-year-old unsolved science problem > many great minds have tried and failed > "good luck" > start up alphafold > try to solve protein folding > humans take years to find 1 protein structure > alphafold can find ~5 per day > submit results, win competition > not good enough > hire more scientists > rebuild it > go from solving one per day to millions per day > create invaluable system > pharma would pay anything > have to decide what to do with this > could sell access for usage > maybe make it a paid service > remember childhood chess tournament > remember why we built this > decide to give it away all away for free > publish all known protein structures publicly > win nobel peace prize > just the beginning towards agi
Jarrod Watts tweet media
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spoop@bragos81·
@huncho1v9 guy playing on playtest server: DOES RIOT PLAYTEST?? XXDDDDDDD
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spoop@bragos81·
@RaechelEP man napped on a public couch and lost his boarding pass while getting made fun of online
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