Brian Bartock

Stuck at ORD on a 3+ hour @AmericanAir delay with no end in sight. Airlines should give affected passengers an ‘open tab’ at the airport—meals, drinks, whatever—until we finally take off or get canceled. Suddenly those $200 Brooks Brothers shirts and overpriced bars make sense.

@ExcelHumor No Weighted Average feature in Pivot Tables. Probably the only thing I will give a nod to Google Sheets.

what’s your biggest frustration with excel?

@iBladesi @sweinand Something a REIT would buy: 275k max 6.5s, <6 wala.

@brianbartock @sweinand just curious.. what spec pool attributes?

Bright idea. an mREIT where it's just one guy that levers up agency mbs and does absolutely nothing but reinvest paydowns and occasionally tweak leverage by share repurchases or offerings (depending on prem/disc). So many widgets are victims of goofy port churn.

@sweinand @iBladesi Based on your math, what sort of levered ROE do you see on a newer wala spec pool?

@iBladesi I don’t disagree. Funding is just too expensive to apply leverage. Levering up, gets you back to the same yield with more risk.

@jimdelisle What’s your take on the sector as a whole in terms of leverage, valuations, hedging, short term prospects?

$ARR April report has it carrying 12.1B in MBS atop 1.0B in CE (common equity) for leverage of >11:1. That is very risky in normal times; with a MOVE of 125, it is batsh*t crazy.

@rcwhalen This is a calculation of the moving average looking backwards. Current 1/3/6m SOFR is 4.58/4.69/4.83

Inverted short end. And #SOFR dysfunction grows....

@elonmusk Can I recommend multiple verification types: $-Series 7,63,66, RIA Firm, CFAs, CFP, etc ⚕️ - Licensed Medical pros, RNs, PAs ⚖️ - JDs or people who have passed bar Most are easily verifiable and having ability to filter responses by accreditation would cut down on noise

Punting relaunch of Blue Verified to November 29th to make sure that it is rock solid

@iamjakestream Not sure about the flags for Occupancy Type but... Fannie: fanniemae.com/portal/funding… Freddie: freddiemac.com/news/finance/s…

Are there datasets to get some sense for how mortgage loans on vacation homes vs primary residences perform?

@The_Real_Fly I think the IVR calculated is wrong due to a recent 1 for 10 stock split that isn't getting picked up. #TrustButVerify

NOTABLE COMPANIES WITH DEBT/MKT CAP RATIOS ON VERGE OF BREAKING OUT

"I predict future happiness for Americans if they can prevent the government from wasting the labors of the people under the pretense of taking care of them." – Thomas Jefferson

@kent_willard I like the idea as a new platform where credentialing would happen at registration. twitter should add more than the blue check, a medical symbol for true MD's, a $ sign for people in investment industry, etc.

@shaig How about NC? Not the usual Charlotte or Raleigh, try Winston Salem. Great weather, good schools, surprising amount of Arts due to the old tobacco/banking money, growing startup scene due to the 2 hospital systems, a medical school and Wake Forest Univ

What is the highest unemployment rate (12 Month Avg) you think the US will experience in the next 25yrs? Feel free to share with friends Also, any commentary on your answer is greatly appreciated.

@wildyields Great Chart, kind of amazed there wasn't even more migration lower.

Good way to visualize the change in the mtg market & how -cvx materializes. Tons of low rate mtg origination last yr... w/ mtg rates now increasing (~3% currently), all this new low coupon MBS is rapidly extending as borrowers no longer have incentive to refi

@GlenWPeterson Authors are stats not markets people but the article had good intentions, i see your interp now. 2 items of note, arbing pools required selling TBA and bids were tuf to come by.The short settle idea was not the Fed's idea, the market told them do it or very bad things will happen

@brianbartock I posted something similiar and here's a link to where I received the info....libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/07/mbs-ma…

#ORC another thing that explains big BV jump with Spec pool RMBS relates to the mortgage melt down and the feds response. Spec Pool relationship to TBA changed dramatically during C-19. This is because Spec. pool RMBS trades and settles more quickly, while TBA requires a month

@GlenWPeterson For anyone reading,he is 98% wrong (2% for spelling TBA correct). Fed buying T+3 was key as levered $ raised cash via short settle to meet margin calls on repo & hedges. Firms w/ liquidity who weren’t forced to sell benefited as spec liquidity slowly rebounded through the qtr.

this innovative approach restored the premium paid to Spec. Pool RMBS over TBA (higher quality for the former). JMHO.

@ARawanbakhsh If you ever want to deep dive in REITs let me know

Mortgage REITs are down nearly 68% YTD, while mortgage-backed securities are actually positive for the year by 2.5%. Know what you own! #Hedgefunds #Markets #US #Investment

@ARawanbakhsh Comp is apples & oranges.MBB tracks one asset REITs invest and the one FED is buying aggressively.MORT has cos with vastly different strategies. I agree with “know what you own,” and when the dust settles there will be value in individual names of MORT but not the ETF itself.

@GlenWPeterson This a REIT Ownership Limitation Issue...the article below does a good job of explaining why it is disclosed bit.ly/2Uq8sN2

@GinSecurities You may have some numbers crossed, AGNC alone owns $13b+ of 4.5. I can send you some commentary from post Jan factors. I agree that if you own generics you are getting smoked. The pools you are referencing are mostly likely owned by convexity hedgers(MSR) and/or indexers