Bryan Conklin

@alphaticaio @longshotism @JaimeVelo Same, I never got anything. Should at least send a confirmation showing we were added.

@longshotism @JaimeVelo We sent a DM to you on April 21. No response. We are sending out our second email early next week

The most dangerous trades in markets aren't the ones everyone is watching. They're the ones hiding inside the plumbing. Japan's carry trade has quietly funded trillions in US assets for decades. Borrow yen at near-zero rates. Convert to dollars. Park in Treasuries, tech, anything with yield. Collect the spread. Repeat. That spread is now at 1.91%. The lowest it has been since the COVID crash. We built a carry trade stress model from scratch, 5,333 trading days, 2003 to 2026, to test what this compression actually means for US equities. Here is what we found. Four inputs. One signal. US 10Y minus JGB 10Y rate differential. USD/JPY 20-day direction. JGB 40Y yield level. Three thresholds. Four signal tiers: GREEN, YELLOW, ORANGE, RED. We then ran Newey-West autocorrelation-corrected t-tests on every tier. Standard significance tests overstate confidence when stress periods cluster in time. We corrected for that. WHAT THE DATA SAYS GREEN (69.5% of days): +0.70% average 20d SPY return. 65% win rate. p=0.0008 after correction. YELLOW (17.1% of days): looked significant at p=0.0014. After Newey-West correction, p=0.33. Not significant. YELLOW is statistically indistinguishable from GREEN. ORANGE (13.3% of days): +1.48% average 20d return. 70% win rate. p=0.0105 after correction. The only stress tier that survives rigorous testing. The uncomfortable truth: carry stress has historically been bullish for equities, not bearish. Most ORANGE periods coincided with Fed cutting cycles, where lower US rates compressed the differential but also lifted asset prices. THE PART EVERYONE MISSES Carry stress alone does not cause crashes. But look at the 7 major SPY drawdowns since 2007. The 4 drawdowns where yen strengthening was present averaged -29.9%. The 3 drawdowns without carry involvement averaged -20.0%. The GFC: -56.5% in 517 days, had yen strengthening on 61% of trading days during the episode. Carry stress doesn't ignite the fire. It pours gasoline on it. And there is one more signal worth watching. During ORANGE periods, TLT averages -0.82% over 20 days at only 37% win rate. Highly significant. Bonds sell off alongside equities. The traditional flight-to-quality hedge disappears exactly when you need it most. WHY THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT Every prior ORANGE period in our data was driven by the Fed cutting rates; yen weakness was the byproduct of US monetary easing. The equity market rose because cheap money was flowing. This ORANGE period is driven by the BOJ hiking. The compression is coming from Japan, not from Washington. The JGB 40Y is at 3.633%, a level reached on fewer than 225 trading days in our entire dataset. The mechanism is structurally different. The closest historical analog in our data is February 2020. ORANGE signal. Rate differential averaging 1.11%. Yen strengthening on 73% of days during the episode. That drawdown was -34.1% in 33 days. THE SIGNAL RIGHT NOW Signal: ORANGE Rate differential: 1.911%, inside the danger zone JGB 40Y: 3.633%, above the 3.0% RED threshold Pseudo-RED Loose: ACTIVE Cushion to RED: 0.411% One BOJ hike or one Fed cut closes that gap. THE TRADE Carry stress alone is not a reason to go short US equities. The data does not support that. But the cross-asset picture is the actionable piece. If you are long equities in an ORANGE regime, your bond hedge is broken. TLT has historically sold off during ORANGE. The 60/40 portfolio does not protect you the way it usually does. The position: stay long equities, short duration. Reduce TLT, IEF, and long-dated bond exposure. If you want a carry stress hedge, FXY, the yen ETF averages -0.68% during ORANGE periods, meaning yen strength is NOT the dominant dynamic yet. A small long FXY position is cheap optionality on a genuine unwind. The trigger to watch: USD/JPY breaking below 150. That is when yen strengthening becomes disorderly. That is when ORANGE becomes RED. That is when the gasoline ignites. 150 is the line. We are at 158. Keep watching. $SPY $SPX $QQQ $JPY #Japan #BOJ

Correct.

@SecWar @DavidSacks You’re unfit for this role and should resign immediately. Take your authoritarianism to China where it belongs.

This week, Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon. Our position has never wavered and will never waver: the Department of War must have full, unrestricted access to Anthropic’s models for every LAWFUL purpose in defense of the Republic. Instead, @AnthropicAI and its CEO @DarioAmodei, have chosen duplicity. Cloaked in the sanctimonious rhetoric of “effective altruism,” they have attempted to strong-arm the United States military into submission - a cowardly act of corporate virtue-signaling that places Silicon Valley ideology above American lives. The Terms of Service of Anthropic’s defective altruism will never outweigh the safety, the readiness, or the lives of American troops on the battlefield. Their true objective is unmistakable: to seize veto power over the operational decisions of the United States military. That is unacceptable. As President Trump stated on Truth Social, the Commander-in-Chief and the American people alone will determine the destiny of our armed forces, not unelected tech executives. Anthropic’s stance is fundamentally incompatible with American principles. Their relationship with the United States Armed Forces and the Federal Government has therefore been permanently altered. In conjunction with the President's directive for the Federal Government to cease all use of Anthropic's technology, I am directing the Department of War to designate Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk to National Security. Effective immediately, no contractor, supplier, or partner that does business with the United States military may conduct any commercial activity with Anthropic. Anthropic will continue to provide the Department of War its services for a period of no more than six months to allow for a seamless transition to a better and more patriotic service. America’s warfighters will never be held hostage by the ideological whims of Big Tech. This decision is final.

Preach Dario.

@akoratana I’d been thinking about personal knowledge graphs for context for several months now. Was nice to see this take. Hadn’t considered traces but it makes a lot of sense. Only thing to keep in mind is they’re limited by the tools and data provided to the agent.

@a1zhang @lateinteraction thank you, super interesting approach! from a terminology standpoint, it seems closer to a scaffold / agent policy / inference-time harness around a base LM than a new model architecture, since the LM itself is unchanged. curious how you’re thinking about ‘model’ here.

Much like the switch in 2025 from language models to reasoning models, we think 2026 will be all about the switch to Recursive Language Models (RLMs). It turns out that models can be far more powerful if you allow them to treat *their own prompts* as an object in an external environment, which they understand and manipulate by writing code that invokes LLMs! Our full paper on RLMs is now available—with much more expansive experiments compared to our initial blogpost from October 2025! arxiv.org/pdf/2512.24601

@chameleon_jeff You’re both acting in good faith. Collaborate with him and have Gauntlet help experiment with a new mechanism on Testnet.

Those who can, do Those who can't, fud Before writing a paper maybe learn the definition of what you are studying? ADL does not "transfer pnl to HLP." It treats HLP entirely symmetrically with users. **ADL has nothing to do with HLP or backstop liquidations** ADL did not "destroy $653 million of pnl" either. If you don't understand what you're talking about, you are not qualified to spread lies masked by fancy ML terms to sound smart. It's a shame that these are the "academics" that the industry looks up to.

@phtevenstrong is it over? i only see 12-14% APY for locking now

I <3 J-Curve

@IlyaAbyzov Would love to try

Working on Torch 🔥 Unified health record + LLM in one iOS app. Syncs records from hospitals, labs, Function, One Med, PDFs etc. Makes it simple & fast to get all your health data in one place + get LLM help making sense of it. Reply/RT for TestFlight invite. More below ⬇️

@matchametaxyz all this does is simulate quotes. i see no place to actually execute any of these trades?

But @matchametaxyz does more than that: 🥇 Advanced quote simulations for transparent pricing and better trade execution 🔐 One-Time Approval to trade across aggregators with a single token approval

As of yesterday, @matchametaxyz is the first and only meta DEX aggregator on @HyperliquidX.

@matchametaxyz @HyperliquidX i don't understand are you just simulating quotes with no way to execute?

Feels good to be the first and only meta DEX aggregator on HyperEVM @HyperliquidX

@elonmusk @xai What are you calling R&D then? Or are you not interested in improving AI? Curious about whether you find value in the term scientist. Perhaps this is less a stance on the terms themselves and more about how you’ve chosen to structure your company.

This false nomenclature of “researcher” and “engineer”, which is a thinly-masked way of describing a two-tier engineering system, is being deleted from @xAI today. There are only engineers. Researcher is a relic term from academia.

@ShardiB2 Hyperliquid

$AAVE Alts are mostly sht...except for this... which we are STILL riding from $135 You like $ETH? Then you will like this better IMO

@phtevenstrong @protocol_fx Should clarify there is a fee to open the position and another to close it. Otherwise this post makes it seem free. And it’s not cheap. Can be considered akin to premium cost on an option I though.

Typically a day like today would annoy me, since I often hold low-leveraged positions for exposure and cost-efficiency. When we're down, I'm much more bothered by the funding fees I've amassed that have eaten into my PnL. @protocol_fx fixed this. 0 Funding Fees 0 Borrow Costs

@MattRob333 @mattbergland @DavidKHardwick @windsurf_ai Def, I’m way beyond on LinkedIn. Will catch up in the next few days. Curious to hear more about the structure you use

@bryanconklin @mattbergland @DavidKHardwick @windsurf_ai I messaged you on LinkedIn. I wanted to chat but had to run. Ive been using meta prompts like this for a while. We should chat.

Many thanks to those that came out to Atlanta's first @windsurf_ai Community Event. I appreciated all the great participation and enthusiasm.

@mattbergland @MattRob333 @DavidKHardwick @windsurf_ai Hey thanks for the call out! Had a lot of fun at the event. Will be posting the deck soon 🙌

@MattRob333 @DavidKHardwick @windsurf_ai Here he is! @bryanconklin 🤝

@D2_Finance @hyperbeat @HyperliquidX @Hyperliquid_Hub @hypurr_co @chameleon_jeff @JamesWynnReal @hypurr thx, just important to point out. the % return is a target and is in USD terms. maybe good to add a disclaimer stating user may end up with less whype but increased USD value. appreciate you working on options strats ❤️

@bryanconklin @hyperbeat @HyperliquidX @Hyperliquid_Hub @hypurr_co @chameleon_jeff @JamesWynnReal @hypurr at last pricingw as bit higher teh starike of 27% OTM, you will receive less whype back, but will be my definition still higher with USD denomination.

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