Cautious Investor

@dMacro_dBS Dont know. Could be a good entry point too.

5y approaching 3.75%. It’s time to start getting out of this… thx for playing

@AnnaEconomist Not a hard concept to understand. Oil relates to goods inflation. Long yields mostly track services.

@Coffee__Capital Higher oil prices lead to goods inflation. Yields mostly track services. Goods inflation is very volatile.

We will see what happens on Monday, but you could make an argument for yields to come down further (safe haven) or spike (Strait of Hormuz closure > higher oil prices > inflation).

@PauloMacro How's your long bond theory going?

How are everybody’s CLO equity and non-IG tranches doing? Your fin CDS and bank load ok? Sweet

@PharmD_KS You trade mortgage rates? Why not just trade long bonds?

Potential breakdown in U.S. mortgage rates but also could find support here in this obvious LVN and trigger a reversal. Volume profile analysis without a volume profile on an instrument that doesn’t have volume. Now watch it work 😂

@dMacro_dBS He will short it into oblivion

This guy been wrong on the last 100bps rally in US 10y and he still has the audacity to ask to read his macro note coming out on the weekend 😂 😂 😂

@spaghettilisbon Sell yield or bond?

US 10s is a sell

@AndrewHiesinger Yeah but you are forgetting the catastrophic drop in between.

For those who lived through the late 90s dot-com bubble: Were people saying the Internet would replace most jobs? Does today’s AI fear cycle feel similar? I’m seeing a wave of “end of white-collar work” reports. AI will reshape things. But historically, tech disrupts, society adapts, and markets move higher. How similar does this feel?

@Fullcarry Who is trading with AI? For me it barely writes a coherent email.

Feels like AI agents have taken over all trading. Markets seem dull and less emotional. Even Silver has been in a tight range all day

@yieldsearcher It has always been. From day 1. What did people expect AI to do? Just keep writing fancy poems forever? And the reality should have started hitting from 2024 to be honest.

What if… the ultimate pro-AI trade is TLT.

@WhidbeyWXGuy Do you know the time? Taking an evening flight from Seatac on Tuesday.

The hi-res models for Tuesday night into Wednesday are not looking good at all. The latest HRRR shows widespread 45-55mph gusts with localized areas up to 55-70mph across pretty much ALL of the PNW as a strong storm moves inland and intensifies while doing so. #wawx #orwx #idwx There are still fluctuations happening between model runs, but we are pretty much locked in to some sort of windstorm. Just how severe it gets is still in question. I will have further updates later today and through tomorrow, and I will try to have a full in-depth forecast discussion done by later this evening.

@RentonFireL864 @nannerl_nanner @MrChaos6 @KingCountyWA @CityofRenton Is that portion of 405 expected to be flooded too? Going to airport tomorrow from Bellevue.

@nannerl_nanner @MrChaos6 What we can tell you is there are numerous creeks that run through that area in question, however it was not made clear to us whether the threat in the specific area in question was for flooding or slide potential. We recommend following @KingCountyWA or @CityofRenton for updates

🚨URGENT🚨Reports of Levee failure in Tukwila have prompted Flash Flood warnings for parts of Renton. Below is a map of potential area to be affected.

@Nethariabywater @NWSSeattle Thanks. I was thinking more about roads. If 405 is affected I was planning to take I5 tomorrow but maps is showing floods in vicinity of both exits

@cautious3302 @NWSSeattle Link from Lynnwood is nowhere near the area in question and should be completely unaffected. Bellevue can take transit across Lake Washington to reach Link stations.

In coordination with King County, we have issued a FLASH FLOOD WARNING for a levee breach in Tukwila WA near Todd, Blvd. Water is likely moving north towards I-405.  In addition, an evacuation notice is now in effect from King County.

@riostoriches That would have been true for a brand new car. At 7-8 years old with near 100k miles on it, might as well buy it for 5k and sell it in 5 years for 4k.

It now costs $127/m to drive a Tesla That is cheaper than any utility bill. The cost breakdown: $127 x 24 months = $3,048 + $1,833 due at delivery = $4,881 It will cost less than $5,000 to drive a Tesla for 2 years Tesla is changing the game.

@TESLA_winston Good deal is actually whoever buys that returned car at 50% off sticker

This is a seriously a no-brainer. $140/mo x 24 + $1,844 = $5204 $5k and you can drive a Tesla for TWO years!

@GabGrowth Lol depends on the buy price innit. At reasonable price I am bull anything including $UNH. And i am deep green. Deeper than any tech this year.

$UNH Bulls now going from -50% YTD to -45% YTD Congrats! 🫡

@DividendDude_X It'll close below 300. I am long but thats the reality.

HOLLLYYYYYY $305 OVERNIGHT FOR UNITEDHEALTH $UNH!!! WHERE DOES THIS OPEN TOMORROW?!??!

@StockMarketNerd Not a bad thing if you are long. I am long from 260 ish

Prepare for you entire feed to be about Berkshire buying $UNH for the next 24ish hours 😂

@VladTheInflator The timing is very interesting. Why now? Does seem like dumping on the retail