Jay Ciullo
493 posts
@bobspaysubstack But do you trust those growth expectations? I don’t. Theyre not making a big bet on diy filers because Turbo tax is of no value anymore. Sure you’ll get some people who will never switch but that’s it.
English
$INTU trades at <15x FY27 (July) EPS fully burdened for SBC. I will take that for a business expected to grow revenue at high-end of low DD and EPS >15%. $INTU is making big bets on assisted tax, its money portfolio, and mid-market, all growing >30%. It is not making a big bet on the low-end DIY filer, which is a very small portion of its business. Hence why it was able to raise the overall full-year guide despite weakness there.
English
@travisakers I’ll take anyone’s tickets that don’t want them. They’re expensive
English
FIFA officials are becoming increasingly worried about World Cup attendance due to hotel cancellations, as international fans are deciding against traveling to the U.S. for the tournament, citing Donald Trump, high costs, visa bonds, and security concerns as their deterrents.
English
@TidefallCapital Feeling the same about $MELI But hey they both have a good story right? Ha
English
Classic:
"Opportunity cost is real on this one - every pound sitting in $MA was a pound not compounding in $NVDA , $AVGO or $CAT
This is probably the hardest lesson in investing."
Cashflow King@cashflow_king94
Fully exited $MA today. Sad to see it go honestly... Mastercard is still a world-class business. 60% operating margins. 175 billion transactions a year. A toll booth on the global economy. But look at this chart. $MA over the last year: -14%. S&P 500 over the last year: +25%. That's a 39% gap on a stock I was holding while the rest of my portfolio was ripping... I don't care how good a business is. If it's underperforming the index by nearly 40% over a year, that capital needs to be somewhere else. Opportunity cost is real on this one - every pound sitting in $MA was a pound not compounding in $NVDA , $AVGO or $CAT This is probably the hardest lesson in investing. Letting go of a stock you love because the numbers aren't working - Your feelings don't make you money. The data does. Never sell unless the thesis breaks? Sometimes the thesis is fine and the stock just isn't performing at all, even on a longer timeframe - That's enough. Good company, wrong timing so my capital is redeployed elsewhere. What's a stock you've held onto for too long?
English
@Stone1776Tom And electing republicans is the same thing as electing Democrats
English
Listen stupid fucks,
Saying you will not vote Republican again is the same as voting Democrat.
Liberals aren’t fractured, they unite and vote together.
English
@TelsaTim_All_In I didn’t buy. But for some reason I won’t sell even though joe is awful. Lottery ticket I guess.
English
Bought an additional 3000 shares of $EOSE at $7.67. Not really sure why, I no longer trust management, and the AI power boom "seems" to be passing them by. Might be early stages of dementia.
Black Wolf, WI 🇺🇸 English
@samswey That’s because those under $50k pay no taxes. Any increase of tax rates on anyone who pays takes would accomplish the same.
English
A 1% wealth tax on America’s 900 billionaires would raise more tax revenue than all the income taxes paid by people making less than $50,000 combined.
English
@RealSpitfire Nope. I’ve fallen for this line my entire voting life (all republicans l). I’m tired of voting for the lesser of two evils. Maybe if it all burns to the ground by dems, the republicans will actually change
English
@ianmSC I think that’s the wrong way to look at it. If you’re a person who can save $5k/yr by cutting back on lunch I’d bet you could save a ton more by being disciplined.
English
I like Kevin O’Leary, but assuming he’s right about coffee and sandwiches, which he isn’t, saving $5 on coffee and $14 per day on sandwiches over 260 work days is $4,940
Which means it’ll take a 30 year old 20 years to save up a 20% down payment on a median home in Nashville
dank@cptdankkk
Kevin O'Leary says most people waste $15,000 a year on stupid stuff like $5 coffees "Stop buying coffee for five dollars and fifty cents" "You go to work and you spend $15 bucks on a sandwich, what are you an idiot. It costs you 99 cents to make a sandwich at home and bring it with you" "Bring your own water, your own drink or your own coffee mug. You start to add that up every day it's a ton of money" "Most people starting on their job making their first $60,000 piss away about $15,000 a year"
English
Credit scores were created in 1989.
We don’t need them. We can create better systems.
English
@macro_guru Higher interest rates would change the entire outlook. That probably is increasing
English
The Reddit community is pounding the table on $UPST saying it can't go wrong.
When you look at the 35% expected revenue growth CAGR through 2028 and heavy insider buying, it's hard to disagree.
Bears are about to get cooked.
English
@NYCMayor Then the teachers would be wrong. The government is inefficient at best corrupt at worst. Either way the little bit of incremental tax dollars you can squeeze out of billions isn’t going to make an impact.
English
I know a few teachers in Queens who would beg to differ.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar
Bezos on CNBC: "You could double the taxes I pay, and it's not gonna help that teacher in Queens. I promise you."
English
@_bass_head_ It is amazing and discouraging how many lemmings thoughtlessly line up behind their chosen political party and then stop critical thinking and blindly accept the party position no matter what.
English
Massie’s loss is a reminder that a majority of people are quite literally incapable of independent thought and salivating for someone to tell them what to think.
There’s no other explanation for him going from like the highest ever approval rating to losing a primary in a year.
English
@patriotgirl776 I’m with you expect for the libertarian party. Did you see the wacko they put up for president?
English
@DavidWeinetayg History. And Warren Buffett who always said if your a long term holder you always want the price to go down so you can buy more.
English
@ciullo100 What makes you think earnings will catch up to fundamentals? This is a different market than ever been seen before
English
I believe in $app ability to execute the business in the future more than I’ve ever believed before. I don’t fully believe the stock price will follow its earnings anymore under new market dynamics. This is what scares me long term
English
@catturd2 I see this argument all the time and it makes no sense. The only thing the dems love more then seeing R’s infighting is for trump to lose. They get both and win either way. But their feelings are irrelevant to the conservative movement.
English
@Spybef0rey0ubuy How? Before tomorrow’s earnings are even accounted for the forward pe is in the mid 20’s. Their pe at 180 would be in the teens, mid teens after tomorrow’s beat. Not happening.
English
If you're buying $NVDA over $220 right before tomorrow's earnings drop, you're officially exit liquidity.
A massive beat is already priced in.
Get ready for the flush back to $180. Change my mind.
English
@grahamformaine Not sure the exact numbers but I can name several billionaires high value donors on each side. Wouldn’t they cancel each other out?
English
300 billionaires spent $3 billion to buy the 2024 elections.
One year later Congress passed yet another billionaire tax break.
Ban billionaires buying elections.
English