@WeatherAubs @ChrisJacksonSC Yeah it's comical at this point. Local media certainly the winners here with a more conservative forecast. Feels like NWS gets too committed to NBM and pulled back too late.
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Cody Yeary
10.3K posts
@codyyeary @ChrisJacksonSC Oh you're in the dry slot 😬
Raleigh has been the forecasters nightmare zone for days with the dreaded dry slot
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Blown away at how easy this stuff is clean off the vehicle. I’m used to dendrites that feel like wet sponges and stick to everything.
Snow is really picking up in Cayce. #scwx
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@WeatherAubs @ChrisJacksonSC As a Minnesotan living in Raleigh I'm trying to remember what real snow is but it's not working out too well.
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@ChrisJacksonSC Enjoy real snow 🤣
Not slop
All you need is a broom for the driveway
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@ColdCoreCowboy Previous runs were more sleet because of a small warm nose around 750mb. But if the 18z Euro is right it's gonna be a more phased system with a deeper warm layer.
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One of the better weather discussions you'll ever see on this app, Tomer is top-tier.
Historically, the synoptics favor a major icing event, especially where cold-air-damming will be most pronounced in (southern) Appalachia.
Meanwhile I'll be "chilling" in -30F air in MN 🙃.
Tomer Burg@burgwx
[Monday, January 19 Analysis] A major cross-country snow and ice storm is increasingly likely this weekend. Confidence is growing in a widespread swath of over 12" of snow & a significant ice storm. I'll cover the big picture & forecast uncertainties in this thread:
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@ColdCoreCowboy Gonna be in the teens. Gonna be snow sleet or fzra.
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@codyyeary Well, let's hope for more cold rain then, although I fear a lot will be caught off-guard if your perception is correct.
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@ColdCoreCowboy Most people are ignoring it. Last weekends nothing burger got over hyped and was mostly a cold rain.
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@codyyeary I've yet to experience a true icing event given MSPs climo. I can't imagine how hectic operations/preparedness are like down there this week.
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@ColdCoreCowboy Especially with potential single digit temps on Tuesday.
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@codyyeary Enjoy this one sir, especially if you're into winter armageddon - hope all is well & great to hear from you!!
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@ColdCoreCowboy Im worried about ice. Power grid in NC fucking sucks.
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@bam_weather I do not want the ice in the Triangle. Would much rather have the snow.
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New ECMWF is in.
NW again.
Last 3 runs shown here for your viewing pleasure friends.
GIF
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@JoshGriffithWX @Mtnbiker15 Very likely not happening. Not sure we can say definitely. Every ingredient is a 10/10 coming together (cold air, moisture flux, lift, longevity).
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@Mtnbiker15 It gave you 2 feet 😂
Definitely not happening, but the ceiling for this event is unfathomably high.
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Everyone in TN and NC just collectively lost their minds at the 18z GFS.
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@EFisherWX @Mtnbiker15 The ceiling for this is insane. I agree that the sleet changeover is there but totals in the 20s across parts of NC seem very much in play.
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@Mtnbiker15 Of course, the GFS spits out the craziest winter forecast I’ve ever seen moments after I share this. It’s a good reminder that there is a very high ceiling with this event *if* we can keep the ice at bay.
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@EFisherWX wondering your thoughts on these wild snowfall totals for this weekend. Some saying between 12-20 inches for wnc. Call me lazy but asked chatgpt and Gemini to interpret all of the major models with avg totals 2-6 was one and the 4-7 another with it stating euro.
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@ExtremeStorms Looks like the turbulence caused excessive forces on the plane.
x.com/53rdWRS/status…
Hurricane Hunters@53rdWRS
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@ExtremeStorms Could have been for safety too. Air Force plane had extreme turbulence so they left per their social media posts.
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@weatherdak How much of a weather nerd does it make me that I checked the most recent NHC Discussions to see what James Franklin said?
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@MESXTF @RosalieVermeire @MatthewCappucci @MyRadarWX Hopefully they take advantage of Florida and find a shelter after being stuck over the ocean for days.
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BIRDS 🕊️ in the eye of Milton. Those blue signatures represent spikey/jagged/irregular shapes not representative of rain. Likely the birds that have been pulled into the eye, where they can’t fly out due to powerful inward winds. (Imagine being caught in a whirlpool.)@MyRadarWX
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@RosalieVermeire @MatthewCappucci @MyRadarWX It's common for birds to take refuge in the eye of a strong hurricane.
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@MatthewCappucci @MyRadarWX Does this happen with all hurricanes?
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Never thought we’d have another eye too small for satellite to see with the advent of GOES-16. Will that be tested?
Do not remember ever seeing 4nm from a VDM
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4 nautical mile (4.6 statute miles) *wide* eye. Milton meeting the very definition of a pinhole eye.
Michael Lowry@MichaelRLowry
Milton has one of the smallest eyes I've seen on an Atlantic hurricane. Radius of maximum winds right now maybe 3 miles? Definitely reminiscent of Wilma at its peak. Wondering if it carves out a similarly big eye as Wilma did on approach to Florida...
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