TIm

@RedwoodCap I’ve thoroughly enjoyed these and really appreciate the time and effort you’ve put into putting them together.

Six essays working through Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness" from an investor's standpoint: the compute arithmetic, the power bottleneck, the geopolitics and government-takeover question, and the alignment risk the framework cannot price. redwoodcapital.substack.com/s/the-ai-decade

@aleabitoreddit The $PENG thesis has nothing to do with photonics.

Very nuanced. People buying $PENG for $MRVL "photonic memory" are likely to be disappointed. They're on the $SMCI integrator level with potential software add. The high margin, foundational IP belongs to companies like Celestial or others like Lightmatter. What they do is build a 2U box, inside the rack, around Celestial/Marvell's the photonic memory IP. It's also in the development collaboration stage. Retail just misunderstand the different layers and conflate them all as this company building core photonic memory IP. Not commenting on the potential price, but it's a legitimate idea for its base business. And upside would be material if they go past sampling. Just annoying when I get comments about "PHOTONIC MEMORY". Then they're building the chassis that the actual photonic memory IP sits inside and not even in qualification stage.

Every smart guy i know is capitulating into the ai trade right here, after a historic rally. Crickets in march/april.

@MoneyMarkStocks A few picks like that and a few decades in the game, you have to be well over $100mm by now right?

🚨𝐀.𝐈. 𝐒𝐭𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬: 𝐁𝐮𝐛𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐎𝐫 𝐁𝐥𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐎𝐟𝐟?🚨 The 30-year Wall St Tech/A.I. vet is back... This week, at a 𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐏𝐑𝐈𝐒𝐄 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝟏:𝟑𝟎𝐏𝐌!! tinyurl.com/MoneyMarkLive We've picked $AEHR @ 3, $WATT @ 12, $NVDA @ 40, $MU @ 100, $ARM @ 100, $MRVL @ 70 (and numerous small cap A.I. multi-baggers)🚀 Get the latest A.I. update & ask YOUR QUESTIONS with our global audience of 1O,OOO investors... on Stock Talk Live! @MoneyMarkStocks" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">youtube.com/@MoneyMarkStoc… 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤: A.I. IoT stocks TAKE OFF!! Are semis overextended? Which A.I. candidates could take off next? Who's getting into the Russell 2000? What's wrong with quantum? $IONQ $QBTS $RGTI Earnings analysis $GOOG $MSFT $AAPL $MSFT $META $TWLO $GKPRF $INTC 🔥𝟏𝟓 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝟒𝟎% 𝐚𝐧𝐧𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬!!🔥 NO picks closed at a loss since MAY... of 2024 ! What do you expect from the guy who literally... * Sold picks to Wall St in the '99 bubble * Was paid by JIM CRAMER'S funds! * Called the rise/fall of MoviePass (& was in the movie!) * Lived one town from Roaring Kitty 😹 $AEHR, $CTLP, $CURI, $CXDO, $DELL, $DRSHF, $GEODF, $GKPRF, $GLD, $IDN, $INFU, $ITMSF, $IWM, $IZEA, $KRKNF, $MOB, $MU, $NVDA, $OPTX, $SMCI, $TPCS, $TRAK, $TSSI, $TWLO, $VTSI, $WATT

I haven’t said this about any AI related equity so far, but I’ve repeatedly seen SILC management play the same hype cycle.

@mascarosergi Good for you man but please be careful! Playing with fire.

An amazing day. I doubt I will be able to do better again. And an amazing month. Just a month ago I was crying hard. This is the market… Adapt and move fast or you are gonna be sentenced. Too lucky for now 🥹

@Monolith_Cap @BerkelKip No position but if your broker has an international desk like Schwab or Fidelity, they should be able to locate share for you!

1) AI beneficiary still trading at a value price. $6623.T Aichi Electric gets 45% of profits from printed circuit board (PCB) cores specifically designed for semiconductor packages; segment +35% sales & +45% OP YTD. Trades 1.0x BV, 6.5x EV/EBIT & 10.3x P/E

@Bkclaims I mean yea if you inflate your expenses to $400k a year but that’s not the reality. Mostly all of my friends pocket $250k+ a year and have a $1mm in the bank by 30. Only city in the world where this isn’t abnormal.

Not really once you run it like a tax return. $800k all ordinary income → ~45–50% fed + state/city = call it ~$400k net. Rent: $10–20k/mo = $120–240k+ Your 100k gym Normal life in NYC: (food etc.): $100–150k+ Great income, sure—but you’re also living in the most expensive places on earth. Don't lose your job!

yet you can live in many parts of the world on 100k a year and have an even better quality of life - sorry NYC :(

@ReneSellmann @InvestLikeBest Excuses excuses, this is exactly what people who underperform say. Why is it that I never hear PMs who actually generate alpha talk like this? Focusing on fundamentals is a disadvantage? Yeah, right. Your inability to properly value businesses is the real disadvantage.

In some way, in recent years, investing has become increasingly overwhelming, particularly when compared to the simpler approach it may have been just a few decades ago. Listening to the latest @InvestLikeBest episode featuring Paul Tudor Jones really highlighted this shift. Jones spoke candidly about how the sheer volume of data points he has to track is staggering, to the point where he feels almost compelled to monitor developments constantly – every day, every hour, almost every minute ... all the time. This level of information overload has become the norm for many, and it creates an environment where even seasoned investors feel they can't afford to fall behind. On top of this, there has been a noticeable shift in market structure, an issue that has been voiced most notably by David Einhorn. Investors like Einhorn suggest that traditional fundamentals now matter less and less in determining stock prices. For example, a stock might be dirt cheap, but without a clear catalyst or thoughtful capital allocation by management, it can remain undervalued for an extended period – even for a decade or longer, which was unthinkable a few decades ago. Many stocks today simply don’t trade based on fundamentals anymore. Adding to the complexity, Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman @hkuppy recently tweeted that focusing solely on fundamentals in the current market climate may actually be a disadvantage, a liability, rather than an edge, a source of alpha, as it once was. This new dynamic seems to suggest that, in some cases, understanding the perception of a stock – how the market views it – may be just as important, if not more so, than traditional financial analysis. As investors, we are now required to think beyond just earnings and revenue and consider how market sentiment might shift regardless of those factors. I’ve spent time developing a framework to better navigate these shifts, which I call my three-part perception change framework. It focuses on adaptability, a key trait of investors who remain successful over many cycles. However, adding this new dimension to investing – where perception and sentiment can drive prices more than fundamentals – feels like it dilutes the value of traditional analysis. It's a difficult reality to accept, especially for those of us who have relied on fundamental analysis as the backbone of our strategy for years. Just thinking a little out loud here. Now, while this added complexity can feel overwhelming, it also defines the new frontier of professional investing. The "edge" is no longer just finding a cheap stock; it is accurately predicting when and why the market will finally choose to care about it. How do you typically weigh the "perception" pillar against the "fundamental" pillar when you're first screening a new idea?

@UncleAlpha007 It’s genuinely impressive to see someone update their view so quickly when the facts change.

$poet is the most obvious short here imho, even down 50%. NFA DYOD Violating an NDA with $mrvl? You dont come back from that. I bet $poet used the $mrvl contract to do their huge $300m+ raise. They are gunna get sued. Investors will want money back while its still there. This can spiral FAST. $MRVL $AAOI $LITE $COHR $SIVE

@orrdavid Hey David, this is a bit off topic, but I remember a few years back you mentioned that investors might be better off studying Ken Griffin rather than traditional value investors. Do you have any reading or book recommendations on that?

Milken was a hero. He came up with a good idea that performed well for people investing with him. He provided significant liquidty for troubled companies, so that more might survive - which even helps *those* employees. And he paid his employees extremely well. He created a truly everyone wins operation. One of the most underapprecaited guys in this industry. More people should know about him. It's sick that he of all people got attacked for political reasons.

@siyul @everyonehatesp1 I would actually say the opposite. It's one of the few industires where you can earn a solid ROE for extended periods of time without having a competitve advantage relative to your competitors.

@everyonehatesp1 Microcap banks are tough biz, for one thing, stay away from pitching 2 microcap banks a week folks.

Who are the best bank microcap investors you guys know? Would love to better understand that space.

@marketplunger1 That's a solid agrument but a few of them have cash flow margins in the 20-30% range which makes 4-6x sales very reasonable. In aggregate I think most of them look fairly valued after this sell off.

I get that software and SaaS are getting murdered and they'll never recover and they're all zeroes. So why in the hell is my favorite (and prob only SaaS) name still trading at 5x NTM Sales? Where is this washout I'm hearing about.

@ToddWenning This happened to me right out of college. Multiple rounds of interviews at Lincoln financial. I accepted the job and even received a signing bonus.

@SebKrog It may be that you’re assigning medtech companies a valuation based on revenue multiples, even when there’s no clear catalyst for significant revenue growth, while applying more conservative, cashflow based multiples to everything else. I haven't read those pitches though.

Excerpt from my Q1 reflections:

@J_Pattyy @Wolfdog_Capital @overbrookcap @GeoInvesting For context, that came out after I sold. However just look at the adjustments to vision 2030, the ME end market is clearly going to slow down.

@corporalCocoPuf @Wolfdog_Capital @overbrookcap @GeoInvesting Company press release from 3/19...

If $PPIH wasn't already on our Focus Model Portfolio since Sept 2025, we'd still make that choice today, even being up 39% since then. Likely our fave stock at this time. They may have lumpy qtrs. here and there... but the combined infrastructure & data center themes are money.

@Wolfdog_Capital @overbrookcap @GeoInvesting Surprised this hasn’t been addressed yet. I exited my position over the past month because of it $PPIH

@overbrookcap @GeoInvesting Any concerns as to how the war impacts their biz in ME?

@atelicinvest That's likely someone making fun of the antiAI page. Seems like rage bait.

I mean, probably not the worst thing tho logic is obviously hilariously wrong. Unrestricted AI access probably pretty terrible thing for children.

Tried using Jacob’s method to think bigger, but honestly, nothing expands my perspective quite like reading the WSJ. Starting the day with stories about some of the most successful people in the world has a way of naturally pushing your thinking to a larger scale.