Costa

Why is it ‘cancelled’ in the U.K. but ‘canceled’ in the U.S.? Because we gave them that L in 1776.

As bad as a closed Hormuz will be for the world, I'm starting to think that the world will be a better place if oil briefly goes to $250 and a very select subset of the financial market participants that have learned all the wrong lessons over the last 15 years blow up overnight. Yes, it will be incredibly painful. Maybe great depression level stuff. We can repair and rebuild if markets are allowed to function freely and properly. But if this nihilistic, opposite of good capital allocation regime continues to get rewarded, we end up in a very dark place. We are quickly sliding toward an Animal Farm/Brave New World version of Idiocracy. All of the capital is sliding toward the people controlling whatever narrative they choose ("Brandow is what the plants crave") while the plants wither and die because farmers cant afford fertilizer at suppressed crop prices. The true believers in Brandow get rich while the lower 80% of the K metaphorically starve. I'm a free markets capitalism guy but THIS aint it. What we have today is something akin to the USSR, where the oligarchs own the government, media and financial markets. Price signals dont function with massive underproduction of real goods and enormous overproduction of the nonsense that enriches tech billionaires. And when the $2+ Trillion of compute that is not needed gets built, the billionaires that control the government will have the taxpayer buy it because this is the new command economy. Every day the AI bubble gets bigger the more the top of the K diverges from the bottom and the more painful the unwind eventually is. The sooner we rip this bandaid off the better.

It's actually mind-boggling that @JDVance would say Watergate would be a "10 hour story" today. Just to review, Nixon's aides authorized a break-in of the DNC HQ to install bugging equipment--in a caper foiled by a night watchman, who called police. They then enlisted the CIA to mislead the FBI that the break-in was related to a probe of malign foreign actors. The entire operation was paid for by a slush fund controlled by the WH. The WH also enlisted the IRS to probe hundreds of Nixon's political enemies. The AG, the WH COS and several other top aides all were convicted and served time for their involvement in the crimes and coverup. Nixon was caught on his own secret tape system conspiring with them but was pardoned a month after he resigned by his successor, Gerald Ford. That Vance thinks this would be a "10 hour story" today speaks volumes about the moral and ethical degradation of the Trump era.

Imagine Trump ever being invited to join a photo like this — not in a million years. Four presidents. Zero drama. Just smiles, respect, and a shared love of country. 🇺🇸

Moscow's instantly-iconic exploding fuel storage tank is resulting in a flood of memes. I'll add a selection below...

Our country will not survive with the boomers sucking dry the absolute blood marrow out of our economy from the generations that proceed them. This right here is why there is a populist revolution in both parties raging like brush fire.

OK, there were two potentially rational strategies (with proponents of both in violent disagreement) 1) Don’t start a war at all 2) Start and continue a war until you clearly win I’m not arguing for either here. But starting a war, reducing a cancer but not killing it always being the worst idea possible, and then stopping by doing your best Obama-deal imitation, seems to be the worst possible strategy. If Dr. Strange went through millions of scenarios he’d say “this is the only one we lose in.” Oh, and while the agreement is to stop fighting, there is nothing close to an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program which, uh, WAS THE WHOLE FREAKING POINT. Trump actually says something like “they don’t even want a nuclear weapon anymore.” If anyone believes that they aren’t merely dumb they are “call the Guinness people (the world record ones not the brown ale ones though they might be useful too) we have found the dumbest person” dumb. Trump doesn’t believe that. Yes the Iranian terrorists wouldn’t take a nuke if we built it for them now. Right. Why is this happening? Hard to be precise. Doing this to appease the woke right whose ire you underestimated is just disgusting cowardice. Doing it to drive oil prices down before the midterms is grossly incompetent as you really didn’t know oil prices would soar? Really? Nobody in war planning knew that? That’s new information to you? And if you care about the midterms so much why’d you endorse the disgusting “disqualified in any rational world” (yes, along with Platner) Paxton in Texas putting it play? None of this makes any sense at all. Horrible. Just horrible.

What timeline are we on man. There’s a $60 million UFC cage on the White House lawn for the president’s 80th birthday. 125,000 guests. 494 port-a-potties. He compared it to the Eiffel Tower and said maybe they’ll never take it down. The world’s first trillionaire was minted yesterday. SpaceX IPO. One person now holds more wealth than the GDP of most countries. The government is negotiating to own a piece of OpenAI. The CEO walked into the White House and pitched it himself. They’re calling it a Public Wealth Fund. That same government killed OpenAI’s biggest competitor’s models on a Friday night. The reason? A verbal jailbreak claim from an unnamed company. The same jailbreak works on OpenAI’s models. Nobody touched them. The competitor got blacklisted by the Pentagon four months ago. Their crime? Refusing to let the military use their AI for mass surveillance of American citizens. A judge called it retaliation. The Pentagon did it anyway. Both AI companies filed to go public in the same two-week window. Both targeting trillion-dollar valuations. One has a government equity deal in progress. The other can’t keep its products online. The engineers who built the banned models can’t use them anymore. Because of their passports. And an AI company that spent thousands of hours cooperating with government safety testing got punished harder than any company that didn’t bother. UFC on the White House lawn. A trillionaire. Government-owned AI. Export controls based on phone calls. Cage fights and trillion-dollar IPOs in the same news cycle. Watch the film titled Idiocracy. That’s the timeline we’re on.

Claude Fable 5 has been out for a couple of days. Some projects people have already built with it:

SBA ISN'T JUST ASKING QUESTIONS IT'S SOURCING NEAR-TERM INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY The U.S. Small Business Administration just dropped an RFI targeting critical supply chain choke points. • What they want: Domestic suppliers with proven capability that are one constraint away from scaling • The key filter: Can you hit a measurable production milestone in 1-3 months? • What's blocking them: Equipment, working capital, certification, workforce, or input shortages • What SBA is considering: Milestone-based funding tied to output, not promises Prize competitions under the America COMPETES Act Blended capital stacks that crowd in private investment • Not just funding: They're also looking at demand signals, procurement alignment, and technical validation to reduce execution risk • Who should respond: Manufacturers, suppliers, investors, and operators with direct visibility into constrained segments • Deadline: May 18, 2026 investinnovate@sba.gov If this becomes a program, it could be a fast-moving capital channel for domestic industrial scaling - worth watching.

News flash to the Donald: Fertilizer prices are not set by monopolists, but on the free market by supply and demand. And you have just slashed the global supply by your illegal and idiotic War on Iran. So listen up MAGA: The GOP once stood for free markets, balanced budgets, sound money and rigorous observance of the Bill of Rights and Constitution. If you can't see that Trump is the sworn enemy of all four of those principles, then you are blind as a bat.

💢📰 REPORT | New reporting from NYT reveals how Trump decided to go to war with Iran — after a closed-door Israeli pitch and despite deep internal divisions inside his own team. At a secret Feb. 11 Situation Room meeting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu presented a four-part pitch for regime change, including a video montage of potential replacement leaders such as Reza Pahlavi. JD Vance was absent, stuck in Azerbaijan. Appearing alongside Mossad chief David Barnea and military officials, Netanyahu argued: Iran’s ballistic missile program could be destroyed in weeks. The regime would be too weak to close the Strait of Hormuz. Street protests — fomented with Mossad help — could trigger an uprising. Kurdish fighters from Iraq could open a ground front in the northwest. Trump’s response: “Sounds good to me.” Trump’s response: “Sounds good to me.” The next day, U.S. intelligence pushed back sharply. CIA Director John Ratcliffe called the regime-change scenario “farcical,” with Secretary of State Marco Rubio adding: “In other words, it’s bullshit.” Gen. Dan Caine told the president: “This is, in my experience, standard operating procedure for the Israelis. They oversell, and their plans are not always well-developed.” Trump dismissed regime change as “their problem” — but remained focused on targeting Iran’s leadership and military. By Feb. 26, in a final Situation Room meeting, opposition inside the room was clear but fractured. Vice President JD Vance warned the war could spiral and drain U.S. resources, but ultimately said: “You know I think this is a bad idea… but I’ll support you.” Rubio said regime change was unrealistic, but destroying Iran’s missile program was achievable. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was the biggest proponent of war and backed immediate action. Military leadership outlined risks, including depleted munitions and the threat to Hormuz, but all stopped short of opposing the plan. Key officials responsible for managing the fallout, like the Treasury Secretary, and DNI Gabbard were notably absent. Trump went around the table asking advisors their view, then made the call: “I think we need to do it.” The strikes began two days later.

Lmaoooooo I’m crying

@MitcheIl Agent

Trump declares almost 50% of Americans to be public enemy number one – right after Iran. This is no longer politics; this is open civil war from the mouth of a president. Anyone who brands half of their own people – millions of ordinary Americans who simply vote differently – as the "greatest enemy" hasn't understood America; Trump hates it. This rhetoric isn't "tough," it's treacherous. It destroys precisely what makes America strong: the idea that Americans, despite all their differences, are one nation. Trump has just proven that he doesn't want to be president of all Americans – but merely the leader of a faction that considers the rest the enemy. Insane. And extremely dangerous.

Dear @BrendanCarrFCC: If you implement your flagrantly anti First Amendment actions, you will be sued and you will lose. And legal discovery will be awesome. Because the American people can then find out what the Administration keeps hiding. Take your fascist shit and shove it.

I was in a 2 hour briefing today on the Iran War. All the briefings are closed, because Trump can't defend this war in public. I obviously can't disclose classified info, but you deserve to know how incoherent and incomplete these war plans are. 1/ Here's what I can share:

Nothing to see here, just the Trump officials who'd oversee an Insurrection Act invocation and then martial law declarations moving onto military bases. Miller, Bondi, Rubio, Hegseth, Noem, the secretaries of the Army and Navy... Pay no attention to this. nytimes.com/2026/03/10/us/…

This is potentially the biggest Iran story nobody is talking about: the global insurance market may be heading toward a systemic crisis. Here’s why… Most people don’t realize London isn’t just a financial center it’s THE center of global insurance. Lloyd’s underwrites ~40% of the world’s marine cargo. Ship sinks, port gets bombed, canal gets blocked the bill lands in London. This is why the UK punches above its weight. Not the Royal Navy. Not diplomacy. Insurance. Control insurance, control trade. And London doesn’t just control the 90% of global trade that moves by sea. Lloyd’s and the London market are major insurers of almost everything skyscrapers, factories, ports, satellites, entire supply chains. You can’t participate in public markets or raise large amounts of capital without insurance. Now, the normal playbook for war risk is repricing, not cancellation. Canceling coverage entirely is a massive escalation in underwriting posture. It signals something beyond risk, it signals uncertainty so deep the underwriter can’t even price it. The question everyone should be asking: why? Why not just jack up premiums and make a fortune off the crisis like they did in the Black Sea off Ukraine? To answer that, you have to understand WHY London has maintained a stranglehold on global insurance while losing nearly submarket related to ships. The answer: better intelligence. It is no coincidence that MI6 headquarters sits directly across the Thames from the @IMOHQ, the world’s maritime regulator & a short distance from Lloyd’s itself. I have no proof of a direct pipeline, but it has long been speculated in the industry that intelligence flows from MI6 to Lloyd’s. Having the best intel in the world would be the single greatest competitive advantage any insurer could possess: the ability to price risk that competitors can only guess at. Here’s the problem: the majority of MI6’s intel doesn’t come from its own agents. It comes from Five Eyes the alliance comprising the US, UK, Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. And within 5Eyes, the dominant partner is obvious. The CIA, NSA, NRO, etc generate the lion’s share of intel. So if Lloyd’s pricing advantage flows from MI6, and MI6’s best intelligence flows from the US… what happens when that data pipeline gets throttled? All indications are that @Keir_Starmer was blindsided by the size and scope of the US/Israel strikes on Iran this weekend. That alone tells you something about the current state of transatlantic intelligence sharing. And we know there has been serious anger in Washington over the UK’s decision to sell Diego Garcia, home to America’s most strategically important base in the Indian Ocean, to Mauritius. It is not a huge leap to conclude that the submarine cables linking Langley to London have gone dark, or at minimum have been significantly throttled. What this means for UK national security is a question for the Brits. But what it means for EVERY company globally that’s insured through the London market has massive implications for the entire financial system. Because most large insurers worldwide don’t do independent intelligence work. They index off Lloyd’s rates. If you’re insuring a skyscraper in Tokyo, a semiconductor fab in Taiwan, or a port in Argentina you get a Lloyd’s quote, then shop that price around. Other insurers see Lloyd’s number and assume the diligence was done. They price accordingly. This means if London is suddenly flying blind it’s not just Lloyd’s policyholders at risk. It’s the entire global reinsurance chain. The cancellation of war risk coverage on ships isn’t the crisis. It’s the canary. If this hypothesis is correct, we could be looking at a systemic repricing event across global insurance markets…. the kind of cascading uncertainty that defined 2008 and COVID. Watch Lloyd’s. Watch reinsurance spreads. What Five Eyes. That’s where this story, and possibly Wall Street, breaks. CC @BillAckman

To anyone still gullible enough to fall for scummy media hoaxes: Trump said warmongering neocons love sending your kids to die for wars they would never fight themselves. Liz Cheney is Kamala’s top advisor. Liz wants to invade the whole Middle East. Kamala = WWIII. Trump = Peace.