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长期参与预测市场发现的客观规律，好好阅读可以帮助你从整体调整自己的策略 首先说结论：99% 的主观交易者都在送钱，市场长期低估了NO的价值 我大部分主观交易赚到钱的都是来自于买NO 不知道大家还自己Vitalik说的自己赚了7万美金 Zhou和V神的对话 Joe Zhou：你现在还用 Polymarket 吗？我记得去年的时候，你用的还挺频繁的。 Vitalik：对，我去年在 Polymarket 上赚了 7 万美元。 Joe Zhou：本金多少？ Vitalik：44 万美元。 Joe Zhou： 很多人都亏钱，你是怎么赚的？ Vitalik：我的方法很简单：我寻找那些陷入“疯狂模式”的市场，然后押注“疯狂的事情不会发生”。 比如有一个市场赌“特朗普会不会拿诺贝尔和平奖”。或者有些市场在极度恐慌时预测美元明年归零。当市场情绪进入这种非理性的“疯狂模式”时，我就去押注反面，这通常能赚钱。 我结合自己的经验，发现两点重要的地方 第一，当市场疯狂的时候，你押注反方向往往能赚钱 第二，这一点大家都没发现，那就是NO选项被散户低估，特别是热门赛事 （一般2选一，或者有几个夺冠大热门的体育赛事，这种情况体现的更明显） 可能大家不太会相信,我举个多选一的例子吧 其他的案例都是大同小异，基本99%都符合我的说法 Super Bowl Champion 2026 （超级碗比赛，Opinion为例，其他有相同赛事的市场，同时买多个NO选项甚至有无风险收益） Seattle夺冠YES的卖一单是68.3% New England夺冠YES的卖一单是32.2% Seattle夺冠NO的卖一单是32.2% New England夺冠NO的卖一单是67.9% 同时买入1share的Seattle和New England夺冠的YES成本是100.5% 同时买入1share 的Seattle和New England夺冠的NO的成本是100.1% （这里的差额是0.04%，但是很多平台在这个事件的差额能到2%左右） 而这两种选项的预期收益都是100%，不要小看这0.04%-2%的差距。 如果你交易1万刀，你的成本差距是4-200刀 如果是交易10万刀，你的成本差距是40-2000刀的差距 其他的例子如:LPL 2026 Season Winner 市价买入TOP7 NO的成本是585，预期收入是600-700 年华收益约为2.5%-19.6% 完全可以实现0成本交易，而且是同平台配合挂单策略，可以将年华收益提升到10%以上，而且实现了零成本撸积分。 类似的例子很多，我用AI分析了一下背后的心理学逻辑： 散户不会买 NO 他们要的是： 我看好谁 我站哪边 我预测成功 没有人会第一时间去买入我不看好选手的NO 你赚的不是信息差，而是： “大多数人不愿意做的那一边” 总结：NO选项在大热门的情况下，普遍被低估，主观交易，计算好赔率，疯狂买NO就好 @opinionlabsxyz #预测市场教程 #预测市场策略

It’s with a heavy heart that we announce we won’t be launching Terminal. Why we made this decision Terminal was originally designed to be @convergeonchain liquidity hub. We completed the full codebase and were ready for a Q1 2025 launch. However, the Converge chain never went live as expected, and a launch doesn’t appear to be planned for the near future. This left us with deposits and a fully built protocol, but without the ecosystem it was designed for. We explored multiple pivots but none were compelling enough. Each option came with material blockers: limited support, low asset-onboarding potential, weak long-term perspective among others. Ultimately, we were not convinced that any of these paths would lead to a successful long-term project. Launching a project just to launch a project goes against our principles. Preserving integrity is paramount. To Roots holders All principal is preserved, and all user deposits remain backed 1:1. Participants are able to withdraw their deposits 1:1. Each current Pendle position is entitled to the Ethena Sats earned, the sUSDe yield associated with it, as well as etherfi points. A tough call To our supporters, LPs, ambassadors— we’re sorry. This is a difficult decision, and we know it’s painful for everyone. We are all losing something today. But we believe this is the most honest and responsible path forward. We will open-source the fully audited protocol codebase. Terminal was designed as a MetaDEX with a novel mechanism to address yield-derived impermanent-loss and reinject yield to bribe markets, improving the model economics by default. Thank you for being with us on this journey.

The second Legion Prime sale launches Dec 16th: @sportfun ($FUN) The first Prime sale was @yieldbasis (78x oversubscribed). You'll need USD1 on Ethereum Mainnet to participate. Guide below 👇 Token Sale Not for U.K. Persons