danielbenaim

نظم مركز الدراسات الأمريكية بالمعهد حلقة نقاش بعنوان: "تداعيات الحرب الأمريكية الإسرائيلية الإيرانية على الأمن الإقليمي والعالمي" افتتحها معالي مدير عام المعهد د.مشبب القحطاني، وتحدث فيها السيد دانيال بنيام من معهد الشرق الأوسط بواشنطن، وأدارها مدير المركز د.منصور المرزوقي.

The war in Iran “is unlikely to be the conflict that decisively pushes the Gulf states to give up on Washington,” argue Daniel Benaim and Elisa Ewers. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

When the war in Iran comes to a close, the United States “will have an opportunity—however undeserved—to shore up its Gulf relationships,” write Daniel Benaim and Elisa Ewers. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

What will U.S. engagement with the Gulf states look like after the current war with Iran? I take stock w/ @elisaewers44 in @ForeignAffairs. We explore the paradox that, for all the frustration & soul-searching & damage caused, the U.S. remains in position to sustain its Gulf partnerships afterwards. We look at what that would entail -- starting with the full opening of the Strait of Hormuz (no small task), multilateral engagement on maritime security, a joint accelerated effort vs drones & missiles, investments in hardened, resilient, redundant infrastructure, & a return to the business-led diplomacy of last May. linkedin.com/posts/daniel-p…

This could work

Policy proposal: send Game 6 Knicks to enforce the blockade and re-open the Strait of Hormuz.

Talked tech & the Gulf with @jonnydgannon - a former government colleague and impressive practitioner of intelligence diplomacy who has a wide-ranging new substack that I enjoy reading. @argonaut71?r=bsxe&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=stories&shareImageVariant=blur" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@argonaut71?r=…

Great interview between @jonnydgannon & @danielbenaim on tech diplomacy -

Enjoyed this conversation with @DanielBShapiro, Ken Pollack & David Rothkopf @thedsrnetwork on the Iran War - including vital lessons from The Princess Bride on land wars in Asia & what Inigo Montoya tells us about Iranian leadership’s approach to negotiations. lnkd.in/e4JiTxsG

Incredible. More of this.

@jonnydgannon @nimsdaiFNDN Terrific! Eager to hear more.

Headed back to Nepal this May. Honored to support the Nimsdai Foundation in dedicating a new porter house — built for the men, women, and families who carry the mountains on their backs. Small structure. Real impact. More to come. @nimsdaiFNDN

“There’s just this culture clash, where I think Trump’s idea of negotiation is, we hit you with a two-by-four, and then …we sign some piece of paper and then we’re done,” @danielbenaim open.substack.com/pub/diplomatic…

ft.com/content/5ed071… Great points from @danielbenaim

Great piece by our diplomatic fellow @danielbenaim : "Many Americans would be surprised to realise that in several of the Arab states that have been bombarded by Iran — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait and Iraq — there is no US ambassador present. Not one of these posts even has a nominee awaiting Senate confirmation." "Trump may not be wedded to conventional habits of foreign policy. Fair enough. But there’s a reason countries since ancient times have appointed ambassadors abroad. It works."ft.com/content/5ed071…

Spoke about the Iran war with @smitaprakash @ANI

@ChrisRMcGuire Could also be debris.

Reuters reports that an object struck an AWS data center in the UAE, causing a fire and shutting it down. Assuming this was an Iranian drone strike, it is the first time a commercial data center was physically targeted in a conflict. It won’t be the last. reuters.com/world/middle-e…

A below-the-fold observation on above-the-fold news. On days like this I wish we had Ambassadors confirmed in posts across MENA. I know firsthand how it can help (or hurt) in a crisis to have the right people on the ground. Acting officials fill in heroically & calls from DC leaders set the tone. But Ambassadors have unique reach into local leadership & DC to convey messages, anticipate issues, and solve problems while DC is stretched thin. In GCC only Bahrain and Oman have confirmed U.S. Ambassadors.

A few quick thoughts - with a heavy dose of humility given how much we just donʼt know. This does not seem like previous military operations during Trumpʼs first or second term. This appears to be a war with undefined duration and unclear endgame. It appears to be a gamble that by using military force, more favorable dynamics will emerge - or at least that the Iranian regime can be badly weakened at acceptable cost. President Trump raised worthy objectives: eliminating an awful regimeʼs ability to threaten the region or develop a nuclear weapon. The latter was probably achievable by diplomacy. The former seems to be intentionally vague. Perhaps it means degrading Iranʼs missiles and military (achievable from the sky), but perhaps it means eliminating the regime itself (likely not). This does not seem to be a narrowly targeted bombing campaign from the U.S. or Israel. Within its first hours, the war jumped the firebreaks that mostly held until the very final hours of last Juneʼs war. Reports of U.S. strikes on Iraqi Iran-aligned militias and Iranian strikes on Israel, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan. Years of Iran cultivating detente with the Gulf could be over. Watch energy infrastructure on both sides. This is what Gulf states feared might happen (and also feared in hosting U.S. forces). Keep an eye also on the Houthis and Iraqi militias -- two regional forces that retain the capacity to harm Americans inside Iraq and fire beyond their borders alongside Iran. It is an unenviable job mediating for the Trump Administration with Iran. Trump called for protestors to rise up and "take" their country after the bombing. His earlier call for an uprising that the regime then crushed seems to be part of what led us to this point. The Iranian people are clearly beyond fed up with their regime. My worry is that absent external forces on the ground or an armed organized opposition inside, that could be a recipe for more heartbreak. Regime change from the sky is a questionable proposition. Another unknown, alongside the formidable military arsenal arrayed outside, is what the United States and Israel have planned inside Iran, as we saw last June. No real, sustained argument made to the American people to date. My thoughts are with the U.S. service members & families in harmʼs way, with partners under air raid sirens, & many others in danger, whether their governments are friends or foes. My hope always is for the success of the United States and for peace. I also hope there is wisdom at work here beyond what is evident to me this morning.