Daniel Leichsenring

2.3K posts

Daniel Leichsenring

Daniel Leichsenring

@danleich

Economist, CIO at WHG WM. Personal views.

Katılım Temmuz 2009
3.9K Takip Edilen4.3K Takipçiler
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Ricardo Berezin
Ricardo Berezin@RicardoBerezin·
Há quatro anos, a maior intenção de voto de Lula estava entre os jovens de 16 a 24 anos Hoje, a pior avaliação do seu governo está justamente nesse grupo
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Charlie Bilello
Charlie Bilello@charliebilello·
If OpenAI was public, it would now be the 11th largest company in the S&P 500. From a $28 billion valuation to $852 billion in only 3 years. Valuation: -Apr 2023: $28 billion -Jan 2024: $86 bil. -Oct 2024: $157 bil. -Mar 2025: $300 bil. -Oct 2025: $500 bil. -Apr 2026: $852 bil.
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Guilherme Waltenberg
Guilherme Waltenberg@Gwaltenberg·
1/ 🚨 Governo Lula reduziu bloqueio de fraudes no INSS O corte de possíveis irregularidades despencou de 92% para 15% na atual gestão. Via @Poder360 O dado aparece em documentos oficiais analisados pela CPMI do INSS, encerrada pelo STF
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Iran International English
A leaked internal directive from the IRGC’s missile command appears to show that the use of civilian locations to conceal, support and in some cases facilitate missile launch operations is not ad hoc, but structured, documented and built into operational planning. iranintl.com/en/202603319302
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Estadão 🗞️
Estadão 🗞️@Estadao·
EDITORIAL | Pindaíba - “Perturbado com o desgaste que isso possa causar em sua campanha à reeleição, Lula exige de sua equipe solução urgente. E faz todo o País temer pelas consequências”. Leia o texto completo em @opiniao_estadaox.gd/4ri1r
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João Luiz Mauad
João Luiz Mauad@mauad_joao·
Editorial pesadíssimo da FSP. Merece a leitura. 👇 República do Supremo que pode tudo por Folha de São Paulo “Para um ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal, tudo. Para os demais cidadãos, a lei —tal como amplamente interpretada por um ministro do Supremo. Cristaliza-se no Brasil um regime anômalo de prevalência de dez indivíduos sobre o restante da sociedade. Como se vê pelas decisões de Alexandre de Moraes, a latitude de um juiz da corte quando os seus próprios interesses estão em jogo é máxima. Fulmina-se a regra que exige do magistrado afastamento de casos em que ele conste como vítima potencial. Sob sigilo decretam-se prisões, censuras e intimações sem a devida provocação da Procuradoria. Quem critica o arbítrio corre o risco de cair nas garras do Grande Inquisidor. Advogados não têm acesso aos autos. Burocracias do Estado são obrigadas a ajoelhar-se diante da toga agigantada. A atividade policial sujeita-se a intervenções esdrúxulas, como a que por um período escudou de investigação material apreendido sobre a máfia que atuava no Banco Master. A intimidação da Receita Federal levará servidores a adotarem a regra tácita de não abrirem procedimentos administrativos quando detectarem inconsistências fiscais relacionadas aos supremos magistrados. Afinal, o resultado mais brando poderá ser o afastamento sumário da função, com um rastreador no tornozelo. Ameaça parecida paira sobre o Conselho de Controle de Atividades Financeiras (Coaf), o instrumento mais eficaz do país para detectar transações atípicas, de que as atividades ilícitas amiúde se valem. Num golpe solitário de caneta, Moraes esvaziou o órgão. Não há o que controle um ministro do Supremo que se ponha a subverter a institucionalidade para se proteger e atingir supostos adversários. Ele não depende da petição de partes para agir sobre virtualmente tudo o que deseje. A submissão das decisões individuais aos pares, imperativo dos tribunais, passou a ser na prática facultativa. Um ministro pode atuar como o demiurgo que desfaz e reescreve as leis e manda soltar, prender, calar, pagar e não pagar. A revisão do plenário, quando ocorre, não raro se depara com fatos consumados e danos irreparáveis. Mesmo o contrapeso do colegiado esbarrou no corporativismo quando dois de seus membros passaram a ter as condutas questionadas no escândalo do Master. O encastelamento funciona como estímulo para que ministros reforcem as decisões singulares visando à autoproteção. Esvai-se a esperança de que comecem dentro do Supremo os ajustes para desbastá-lo dos superpoderes estranhos à República. Os ministros mostram-se incapazes de adotar um mero código de comportamentos óbvios, que já deveriam ser moeda corrente. É inevitável que caminhe no Congresso uma reforma para recolocar o STF em seu lugar constitucional.”
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João Paulo M. Rocha
João Paulo M. Rocha@jpmachadorocha·
Alexandre de Moraes voou em jatinhos de Vorcaro. Segue abaixo a lista de políticos que certamente cobrarão investigação sobre o ministro assim como fizeram com Nikolas Ferreira:
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OSINTdefender
OSINTdefender@sentdefender·
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has released video showing underground targets being struck by precision munitions. The magnitude of the explosions is similar to the video posted by President Donald J. Trump of strikes on Isfahan, Iran, likely carried out by U.S. Air Force B-2A "Spirit" long-range stealth bombers on a round trip out of Whiteman Air Force Base, MO.
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OSINTtechnical
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical·
The UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force -Arab officials to the WSJ. The UAE is looking at ways it could help, including providing logistics and demining support, and is pushing the U.S. to occupy Iranian islands in the Strait.
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Bianna Golodryga
Bianna Golodryga@biannagolodryga·
“The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the U.S. and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make it the first Persian Gulf country to become a combatant, after being hit by Iranian attacks.” wsj.com/world/middle-e…
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John Spencer
John Spencer@SpencerGuard·
President Trump to address the nation Wednesday night with important updates on Iran.
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Mossad Commentary
Mossad Commentary@MOSSADil·
🇮🇱 NETANYAHU: “TEN BLOWS TO THE AXIS OF EVIL” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlines 10 key achievements in the war against Iran and its proxies: 1️⃣ Strategic reversal: Iran sought to strangle Israel. Today, Israel is strangling Iran. 2️⃣ The world now recognizes the scale of the Iranian threat. 3️⃣ Israel is no longer alone now operating alongside the United States and regional partners. 4️⃣ The Iranian regime has been shaken at its core. 5️⃣ Two existential threats removed: nuclear weapons and massive ballistic missile stockpiles. 6️⃣ Iran’s proxy forces have been severely weakened. 7️⃣ Security zones established beyond Israel’s borders in Gaza, Syria, and Lebanon. 8️⃣ A new doctrine: Israel initiates, strikes, and surprises. 9️⃣ Air defense capabilities proven at the highest level globally. 🔟 National resilience: both the people and the economy remain strong. Stay connected, follow @MOSSADil
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Institute for the Study of War
MORE: The combined force continues to target defense industrial sites in Iran. Strikes on these sites have likely degraded Iran’s ability to produce missiles and drones. An Israeli military correspondent reported that the IDF has struck around 40 defense industrial sites in the past two days.
Institute for the Study of War tweet media
Institute for the Study of War@TheStudyofWar

NEW: US President Donald Trump told the Financial Times on March 30 that the combined force has struck 13,000 targets since the start of the war on February 28. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated on March 30 that it struck 170 targets over the past day. Other Key Takeaways: The IDF stated on March 30 that it has destroyed more than 80 percent of Iran’s air defense systems. The IDF continued to expand its air dominance over Iran by striking an air defense site in Mazandaran Province in northern Iran. The combined force continued to target defense industrial sites in Iran. Strikes on defense industrial sites have likely degraded Iran’s ability to produce missiles and drones. An Israeli military correspondent reported that the IDF has struck around 40 defense industrial sites in the past two days. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on March 30 that the United States has destroyed 150 Iranian vessels, including 92 percent of Iran’s “largest vessels,” since the war began. The Turkish Defense Ministry announced on March 30 that NATO air defense systems intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that had entered Turkish airspace for the fourth time since the start of the war. Anti-regime media and a Kurdistan Democratic Party-affiliated journalist reported that Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) fighters have deployed to western Iran. Iran targeted a water desalination plant in Kuwait on March 29 and killed one worker as part of its ongoing drone and missile attack campaign against the Gulf countries. Hezbollah claimed that it conducted 65 attacks targeting Israeli forces and communities in northern Israel and southern Lebanon between 2:00 PM ET on March 29 and 2:00 PM ET on March 30. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said that Hezbollah has launched 5,000 missiles, rockets, and drones from Lebanon targeting Israel since March 2. The IDF said on March 29 that it intercepted two Houthi drones near Eilat, southern Israel, marking the third time that the Houthis have attacked Israel since entering the conflict on March 28.

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Markets & Mayhem
Markets & Mayhem@Mayhem4Markets·
Many people have asked why this market isn't down a lot more with everything going on. I keep saying the same thing. This is a well-hedged environment. Here's yet another chart that demonstrates it. The global long/short ratio is at its lowest level in 15 years, per Goldman.
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Open Source Intel
Open Source Intel@Osint613·
A scenario over the next 4 to 10 weeks that remains possible: The Islamic regime loses control of its oil infrastructure. The Islamic regime loses control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic regime loses the ability to produce ballistic missiles. The Islamic regime loses access to its uranium. It may sound crazy, but I assess that most, if not all, of these objectives could be achieved. Will circle back to this post.
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NOVO 30
NOVO 30@partidonovo30·
Avaliação negativa do STF bate recorde. O povo está vendo o que os intocáveis tentam esconder. Para ser candidato ao Senado pelo NOVO, é preciso estar comprometido com o impeachment de ministros
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