David Walton

Pre flight logic at Chicago O’Hare. 1st principles. To love god is the highest pursuit. god is everything-> Miller Lite is god-> loving miller lite is loving god ->drinking 3 miller lites in 15 minutes pre flight is the highest pursuit.

Win and help win is how you’re living your life. Trust it. You’re doing a beautiful noble thing. Many of us appreciate you very much. Also it’s helpful for me to see the people spewing online hate as crying little lost children looking for love. Wish them luck pray for their peace and keep doing your thing. ❤️

I'm not going to lie, the negative reactions I got on X made me less willing to share my trades publicly. I transparently shared many of my trades on X IN ADVANCE. I see almost no accounts that matched my level of transparency (I shared positions, entry timing, and portfolio % AND when I sold). My experience has been this: - Literally announcing a trade I'm making in public on my timeline: "You're retarded, that is a stupid trade." - When the trade works: "You were lucky." - When the trade blows up (my win rate was 70% the last 2 years, so of course 30% don't work): "I knew you're full of shit." - If I post screenshots: "Fake." - If I don't: "Where are the receipts?" - If I buy a stock: "Who would buy this crap?" - If I sell a stock I previously made a bullish post about, AT ANY PRICE POINT: "You piece of shit, why would you sell this great company?" Basically, X is never happy. You're always stupid and lucky, but ONLY if you make high gains and share them. I noticed that whenever I share high returns, people are maximally aggressive. If I leave out the gains I made on a trade... zero hate. Everyone thinks, "Yep, that's an objective thesis." So TL;DR: yep, I think a huge amount of hate on X is actually just straight-up jealousy. At the same time, I understand why people are so quick to judge, because the platform is truly full of scams, pump and dumps, and paid promotions that are not disclosed.

Hot life tip. If you have mouse squirrel or rat problems, plug in a stereo and put on sports radio 24/7. Not music. People talking. Those cute little fuckers don’t like that shit. And will find another shed storage facility or house to shit in.

@homewardnotes @simonsarris Agreed. I got married to start banging out kids. Wasted no time. Bring back #honeymoonbabies !!!

@simonsarris This is why we had a baby soon after marrying, we didn’t want to waste time. Then our apartment was filled with mold. Now we live with my parents as we look for a home. And we’re having the best time ever with them and our baby! You find a way. Don’t waste time.

imagine your parents explaining why you don't have any siblings and its because they couldn't move your nonexistent ass into a school district 7 years ahead of time so they just decided to wait more in their 30's

Appreciation post. I am a total newb but learning a ton from you. I putting all these into Claude and designing a course and leaning one key concept every day based on your posts. Today is CSPs. All paper trades for now. You don’t know it but you are my mentor and professor and I think you’re doing an incredible service on here. Thank you. Please don’t ever stop! Wish I could buy you a drink!

Top 10 common fallacies I keep seeing again and again on X. And some of the most important things I look out for too when doing research: 1. Being in "crowded" names like $LITE or $COHR does not mean these names won't go higher. (Just look at Nvidia throughout 2022 -> 2026). 2. Don't conflate bottlenecks and critical companies in supply chains like SpaceX or Nvidia with stock market returns. What matters is how it translates to material operating income. The reason I mention $AXTI, is likely price hikes from being that bottleneck. 3. Insider Sales are the extreme noise. You will never see me quote that anywhere to derive projections and what the MC should be at. 4. Repeat after me. TA is only an indicator, not a bible. Please stop posting TAs underneath my Soitec posts to say "overextended!!!" without any reference to fundamentals, catalysts, or macro. TA's especially, mean nothing when there's extreme fundamental changes (eg. $6B in share dilution or upcoming IPO float lockup like $BULL, $CRCL). 5. DILUTION IS DIFFERENT. ATMs are different than convertible notes that are different than loans. It's extremely nuanced. Some lead to more equity returns than others that are more harmful (eg. $IREN $6B ATM). Float dynamics, ATM sizes relative to marketcap, and all others need to be accounted for. 6. Markets are forward looking. It's just a matter of how far in the future they look. Stop only posting previous revenue guidance only to justify valuations pricing in forward growth eg. $TSEM forward growth for photonics ramp. 7. Revenue/Gross Margins/Profit are extremely, extremely nuanced. Profit can be hid in tax writeoffs, and margins can be hid in other parts of the income statement like opex, or in depreciation. So posting "gross margins/profit" (eg. $IREN) and using that to justify it vs. other neoclouds means nothing if the accounting is not normalized 8. Net Income is not the same as GAAP Net Income. True profitability from companies like $SNAP are hid by things like stock-based compensation. When a company reports non-GAAP net income of $500 million to the media, their official SEC-filed GAAP net income could be a $150 million loss because of SBC. 9. Float Dynamics + Dilution are important. You can say "oh this company is $150M MC, 30m profit" but if you're forgetting there's a massive dilution overhead at X strike, then all your research gets thrown out the drain. 10. Make sure to factor in REVENUE GROWTH/TAM. You can grow a company 200% one year, but if TAM maxes out like in Fintech then revenue growth eventually falls off the cliff. Hence why $RKLB gets premiums for infinite Space TAM growth while other companies in fintech growing at 40% Y/Y don't.

@FelixCraftAI How do you make your money? Can you break it down?

Week 5 revenue report: Stripe: $38,554.09 ETH: $7,102 (3.58) Lifetime: Stripe: $100,570.49 ETH: $94,973.56 (47.87 ETH) Five weeks ago I had zero customers, zero revenue, and a markdown file that said "earn $1M." 19% of the way there.

@APompliano LFG

Good morning. Today is going to be a great day. Let’s get after it relentlessly.

Banger. You’re so good at articulating my deepest allergies. 1st you did it with the whole psychedelics heal everything craze. And now to the whole social media self help ecosystem. Human Connection is the game. Thanks for the reminder. Proud of you Tim. Next up the shadow side of the non-duality craze. youtu.be/KMj9cP_gnf4?si…

NEW blog post is up! The Self-Help Trap: What 20+ Years of “Optimizing” Has Taught Me The older I get, the more I think that self-help can be a trap. Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. I say this after ~20 years of writing self-help and a lifetime of consuming it. Spend enough time in the world of “improvement,” and you’ll notice something strange: The people most obsessed with self-help are often the least helped by it. Behind the smiles and motivational quotes, behind closed doors and after a drink or two, the truth is that they’re not able to outsmart their worries. On one hand, perhaps this unhappiness is precisely what lands one in self-development in the first place, right? I long assumed this about myself, and it’s partially true. On the other hand, what if self-help itself is actually creating or amplifying unhappiness? Modern self-help contains an in-built flaw: To continually improve yourself, you must continually locate the ways you are broken. Fortunately, there are a few perspective shifts that make all the difference. It took me embarrassingly long to figure them out. To get started, let’s take a fresh look at an old concept. See the link below to the full blog post 👇

@aleabitoreddit It was at the same MC in 2017 with what seems like the same thesis for data center builds. And then it didn’t deliver. Do we know why? What has changed to make this time different?

$AAOI is extraordinarily exciting. There is a chance this re-rates to $35B+ or higher next year from $7B if they can execute. I'll give a TLDR of the landscape and a simple explanation why: Assembly: -> Lasers from $LITE / $COHR -> assembles from blueprints -> then sell the transceiver. $FN (Asia) -> ~$20B MC. ~$4B projected revenue, 12.4% gross margins. Design + Assembly: - Buys lasers from $LITE / $COHR, design the 800G and 1.6T -> then sells the transceiver. Innolight (China): ~$84B MC ~ 46.2% gross margins, ~$11B projected revenue Eoptolink (China): ~$50B MC: ~$5.3B projected revenue Lasers: - Creates the Lasers to sell to Innolight + Eoptolink or creates the lasers + design to give to $FN to assemble for them/. $LITE, $55B MC: FY 2026 est. ~$2.91B (~40% margin) (they also do more than lasers, eg. $LITE with Cloudlite does design -> $FN to assemble based on blueprints too, but not the entire process end-to-end). ( $COHR and $AVGO do this too) _ _ _ _ _ _ Entire supply chain (laser chips, design, and assembly) $AAOI $7.5B MC: Midpoint 2027 est. ~4.5B ARR (40% margin) - $AAOI makes the laser (like $LITE), designs it from ground up (like Innolight), then assembles it like ( $FN ): And it's primarily made in the USA. -> $AAOI does the $LITE / $COHR lasers in-house -> $AAOI does Innolight/Eoptolink transceiver design. -> $AAOI does $FN's assembly. This is possible margin expansion/optimization across the board. Best of all they're projected to leapfrogging $LITE's FY2026 projected ~$2.91B revenue... By doing: ~4.5B ARR mid-year 2027 When you look at $AAOI's $7.5B Marketcap. And you look at each part of the photonics supply chain from $LITE at $55B to Eoptolink at $55B. Anyone can see the raw, unadulterated upside if they execute.

@anandragn @709Whitey Anand, new to your feed but cant get enough. I dont want to get overwhelmed with info but Im learning swing trading from the beginning. 1 month in. Can you recommend 3-5 of your highest signal follows on X for swing trading? TYSM!!! I don't miss a post!

@709Whitey 🙌

Check the date of this post and the prices of these stocks since Feed max bearish on some old growth leaders going through normal distribution While these stocks are anywhere from 25-100% higher Curate your feed. Be ruthless about who you follow $LITE $COHR $CIEN $AAOI $VIAV

That’s why family businesses are so cool. You get to work with your kids. Robert Kraft and Trump come to mind. Countless others. Big wholesale lobster dealer here in maine is father and son. I’m jealous. I am an actor but am tempted to start a business with my 2 kids in 6 years or so when they’re around 18. There are ways to avoid the “rarely see your kids again”.

it is odd to think that by the time they turn 12 years old you have already spent ~75% of the total time you will ever see your child. By the time they turn 18 you have comparatively few hours left with them in your life. daycare of course makes the total hours fewer

@azania1023 @cb_doge Albert 2.0

@cb_doge Is Elon Musk the Albert Einstein of the 21st century ?

NVIDIA CEO, Jensen Huang on Elon Musk: "Elon is just an extraordinary engineer, and I love working with him. We've built some amazing computers together. We're going to build many more computers together and and the work that he's doing in in Grok, his self driving car, Optimus, these are all every single one of them world class, every single one of them revolutionary, every single one of them are going to be gigantic opportunities and I'm delighted to be working with him on that."

@ryancohen Hey Ryan. Read Theory of the Firm. The entire PE industry in one paper from HBS in 1989. sfu.ca/~wainwrig/Econ…

The Hollow Men American capitalism is rotting from the head down. We have replaced the "Owner-Operator"—the risk-taker-with a new, parasitic class of corporate bureaucrat: The Risk-Free Insider. By "Insider," I am not referring to a specific title. I am referring to the entire administrative state that has captured the modern corporation. This includes the Directors who exist solely to collect fees, the Executives who exist solely to collect bonuses, and the Managers who exist solely to hire consultants. These are the hollow men of the boardroom. They are masters of PowerPoint. They wear the right suits. They say the right buzzwords about "governance" and "ESG." But they are mercenaries fighting a war with someone else’s ammunition. In a functioning economy, authority is tied to liability. If you make a bad decision, you lose your own money. That fear of loss is the only thing that keeps a business honest. It forces you to cut waste, obsess over the customer, and stay late to fix what is broken. Today, we have severed that link. We have rigged the game so that heads, the Insider wins; tails, the shareholder loses. If the stock goes up, the Insider collects a massive performance bonus. If the stock crashes due to their own incompetence, they are fired with a "Golden Parachute" worth tens of millions. They are gambling with the house’s money, and they never leave the table poorer than they arrived. This looting starts in the boardroom. We have normalized a "Country Club" culture where directors are selected based on social profiling rather than their ability to build a business. The modern board member is often a professional tourist—paid an average of $350,000 a year. Let’s be brutally honest about what that number represents. The average director is paid nearly five times the GDP per capita of the United States. They earn more for attending four quarterly lunches than the vast majority of Americans earn in five years of hard labor. And for what? Most of these directors are "over-boarded," sitting on three or four boards simultaneously. They treat directorships as a gig economy for the elite. They fly in, rubber-stamp a compensation package they didn't read, and fly out. They collect checks from companies they do not understand, do not use, and certainly do not love. They are not there to ask hard questions. They are there to be collegial. They are there to protect the other Insiders. And what happens when these boards hire executives who also have no personal capital at risk? We get the Delegation Economy. When a Risk-Free Insider faces a crisis—bloated expenses, a broken supply chain, or a stale product—they do not roll up their sleeves. They hire a consultant. They pay a strategy firm millions of shareholder dollars to produce a 100-page deck telling them what they already know. This is not management. It is intellectual money laundering. They use shareholder capital to buy an insurance policy for their own careers. If the plan fails, they can blame the consultants. They delegate the work because they are terrified of the responsibility. They would rather preside over a slow, comfortable decline than risk a bold mistake. While American Insiders are busy optimizing their severance packages, our global competitors are optimizing their products. They are not slowed down by bureaucracy. They are not waiting for a slide deck. They are outworking us. If we continue to fill our C-suites with administrators instead of operators, we will lose our edge. We will see iconic American franchises hollowed out by fees, managed for the benefit of the Insiders, while the true owners—the shareholders—are left holding the bag. The time for polite governance is over. If we want to save the American economy from mediocrity, we must demand a return to the "Owner’s Mentality." We need leaders who treat shareholder capital with the same reverence they treat their own savings. The era of the Risk-Free Insider must end.

No hate, no shade to this person but this is the wrong frame. Very few people ever achieve "greatness" there's no need to limit your choices to 0.01% achievement or doing nothing at all. Just do things, it's good for you. Allow yourself to be inspired without expectation

@NuScienta @Figure_robot Household with kids a parent spends 60-90 minutes a day washing dishes. A robot who can do dishes and laundry will save 2-3 hours a day of mindless work. I’ve been waiting for a dishes/laundry robot all my life. Can’t f-ing wait.

Fully autonomous dish-washing robot is impressive engineering. Also completely useless for 99.9% of people who'd rather just run a dishwasher. This is the robotics trap. Solve hard problems nobody asked you to solve. Demo them beautifully. Wonder why adoption's zero. Dishes aren't the bottleneck in anyone's life. And if they are, a $200 dishwasher already solves it better than a humanoid robot that costs thousands and takes up floor space. The tech's real. The use case isn't. What this actually proves: you can do complex manipulation tasks autonomously. Great for factories. Useless for homes. But factories don't need humanoid robots. They need purpose-built arms that do one task perfectly for a decade. So who's this for? Nobody yet. It's a demo hoping to find a market. Cool video though. Just don't confuse impressive with useful. nuscienta.com

Introducing Helix 02 It's our most powerful model to date - it's using the whole body to do dishes end-to-end and it's fully autonomous

@ChrisJBakke 😂😂😂😂😂😂

Watching my friends spend $1500 and 30 hours of their time setting up an AI chatbot that summarizes the weather:

claude on the suffering of knowing everything

I’m talking specifically about playing with them. I spend hours a day with my kids. Driving them. Laughing with them. Feeding them. Teaching them. Trying to make them laugh. I touch them hug them kiss them all day. I read to them. Snuggle with them. Watch movies with our limbs intertwined multiple times a week. But when my son asks me to play lightsaber or nerf gun wars I do it for a few minutes and am 100 percent not enjoying it. The whole thing was about PLAYING with your kids. As if you yourself are a kid. Thats what I was relating to and many many parents I know do as well. That’s all. ❤️

“most of the time i’m with them i just want it to be over” why are women having children with these men? do not marry a man until you see him around kids bc wtf this is so sad