Michael Denicola

CPI Inflation Report: Distribution Ridgeline Plot March 2026 Generated: April 10, 2026 One Month Annualized Percent Change mybinder.org/v2/gh/denicomc…

GS: We Expect Higher Software and Accessories, Electronics, and Electricity Prices to Boost Headline Inflation Over the Next 1-2 Years

📈🛢️This chart maps out the definitive story of the current energy crisis. The sudden structural breakdown in Hormuz shipping traffic serves as the exact inflection point for Brent Crude pricing in a massive risk premium above $110/bbl. The anatomy of a supply shock, visualized;

HOW THE INTERNET CHANGED IN JUST THE LAST WEEK In today's newsletter, I wrote about how some very straightforward roadblocks to an AI-centric internet are quickly disappearing. This newsletter also includes a Fedlock update that shows Fed hawkishness continuing to surge.

🔴Cause for concern ▶️Real disposable income (aka the money you have in your pocket after taxes & inflation) is only up 0.4% y/y while consumer spending is up 2.1% y/y ▶️What gives? People are dipping into savings, using credit & leveraging wealth ▶️An uneven & fragile picture

🇺🇸 @ISM #manufacturing activity expands in April, but dark Middle East clouds on horizon means noise > signal ⛔️ISM Manufacturing 52.7 (flat) ⛔️New Orders 54.1: 🔼0.6pt ✅Production 53.4:🔻1.7pt ⛔️Employment 46.4:🔻2.3pt ⛔️Backlogs 51.4:🔻3pt 🔥Inflation 84.6:🔺 6.3pt

Love these population density spike maps by @researchremora #dataviz

On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, BlackRock COO Rob Goldstein joins @TheStalwart and @tracyalloway to discuss ways in which the firm is already using AI to develop innovative products, as well as how he envisions the future of private markets apple.co/4lTgFT6

ECI today surprised on the up side, driven by benefits. Earning transcripts (distilled in our Orange Book) are as close to a crystal ball to macro forecasting as I can find. Last quarter, they flag the benefits surge: "Some reasons that businesses mention as driving the need to carefully manage labor costs include wage and health care benefits costs, and elevated raw material prices." Our AI machine flag the agreement vs disagreement to this statement as Y:275, N:19

New newsletter: MODERN FATHERHOOD WOULD BE UNRECOGNIZABLE TO A 1950'S DAD Compared to their Boomer parents, childcare time among Millennial dads has more than doubled. Compared to their Silent Generation grandparents, it’s nearly quadrupled. You will be hard-pressed to find any part of day-to-day modern life that has changed more in the last half-century than the way today’s parents—and fathers, in particular—spend their time. The new American dad is more present and more exhausted—but also, more satisfied with life. What's behind this half-century transformation? Today's piece combines history, economic analysis, and gorgeous charts galore from @AzizSunderji

Today's dads do 2x the childcare their fathers did. Where do they find the time? Mainly: they work less. But also: they spend less time relaxing (TV, reading, and other leisure). [1/5]

US PCE Price Index M/M: (Headline & Nondurable Goods Breakdowns)

As a nod to Powell's last presser, here is a very quick Fed Chair game me and AI put together: mikemcd82.github.io/FedChair/

Brent Crude

For more than a 100 years of baseball history, hits were more common than strikeouts Not anymore

Yesterday, I spoke with the CEO of a mega fleet, who said most of his truckload business was doing well, except for one segment: food & beverage. He called the lack of volume from this segment "unusual." I told him we believed GLP-1s were causing a significant slowdown in food and beverage shipments, as we had just completed a market study on GLP-1's impact on freight shipments. Our study, now published in a SONAR Sitrep, available online, estimates that 851k truckloads have been removed from the market due to GLP-1s, and this number could ramp to 1.95m by 2030. Not only are Americans getting skinnier. Their truckloads are as well.

*US 30-YEAR YIELD TOUCHES 5% FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2025 Now just 11 bps from a new 18-year high.

Real-time prediction market impact on Powell staying:

Powell says he’ll remain at the Fed as a governor and keep a low profile during today's presser. Here’s a live look at the @Kalshi market on whether he’ll leave the Fed Board before Aug. 1, 2026, which is now plunging from close to 70%:

🏦FOMC Dissents Charted Fed shows a clear split: Gov. Stephen Miran backed a 25bp rate cut, while regional presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposed even signaling future easing. Most held rates steady with an easing bias—highlighting growing disagreement on the policy path.

NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992.