Dirk Spöri

3.3K posts

Dirk Spöri

Dirk Spöri

@dirkspoeri

Aktivist, Softwareentwickler, Internationalist

Katılım Nisan 2010
400 Takip Edilen362 Takipçiler
Dirk Spöri retweetledi
Global Sumud Flotilla
Global Sumud Flotilla@gbsumudflotilla·
Our participants have been brutalized from head to toe by IOF soldiers in Greek waters—while the Greek coast guard and Foreign Ministry stood by. This is not complicity, this is collaboration. If they will allow israeli brutality here, it’s never been clearer that they will never impede it in Palestine, or anywhere. IT’S ALWAYS BEEN UP TO US. The people must continue to rise for our siblings in Palestine and against this unprecedented compromise of European sovereignty and democracy.
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Extraordinary footage. Bases within SRBM range of a great missile power are too vulnerable to rely on. Looking at you, Kadena.
Rosemary Kelanic@RKelanic

CNN investigation finds "unprecedented destruction" at 16 U.S. bases in the Middle East, leaving some "virtually unusable." And they have footage. Why keep these bases if the U.S. can't defend them? @defpriorities #details" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">msn.com/en-us/news/wor…

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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Yes, if we go back to war, we will still lose, just at a much higher cost. After a stagflationary shock of some amplitude, and the political destruction of MAGA and the GOP, among other predictable consequences of this catastrophe. People need to understand that the fundamental problem here is not specific to Iran at all. It is the incongruence between a unipolar mental model in elite American heads and the military reality of a multipolar world. This is a learning process. And a lot more humiliation may be required to close the gap bw discourse and reality (@70sBachchan). The job of hegemonic war or world war was to close this gap bw discourse and reality of the global balance of power. That process got arrested when the cost of world war went parabolic as we rode up the hockey stick together.
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Daniel Davis Deep Dive@DanielLDavis1

This is a little more than a hunt for targets to attack. Everything we’re doing here is devoid of a strategy. If you’re going to use military force against a country, it needs to be very carefully calibrated to obtain a specific political objective, and use militarily attainable tactical objectives that have a reasonable chance at accomplishing the political tasks. The things reported in this article are evidence of a mindset that says we’re going to find things to shoot at, and then just sit back and wait and see what happens. Any basic analysis would scream that all such attacks are going to accomplish is to make the Hornets mad, and ensure that they launch commence strikes against the US, and our allies in the region, increasing the pain on them/us. But it’s virtually impossible that these strikes would compel submission by the Iranians. Just think of how illogical this is: 40 days of full on bombing with over 14,000 targets attacked did not cause Iran to submit, and now a few relative pinprick strikes are? The only thing that continues to make any sense at all, is a diplomatic deal that is minimally acceptable to both sides, and an end to the war. That means that we would have to give something to Iran, some things we don’t want to give, and Iran would have to give some things they don’t want to, but both benefit from an end into the war. And it seems pretty likely that the Iranians will not agree to any terms unless they have some sort of even quasi security guarantees, in one form or another, and that’s gonna be a bitter pill for the US to swallow. But let me reinforce a critical fundamental here: if we don’t take the bitter pill by choice, we will be forced to eat an even worse deal later.

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Tribune Populaire🌐
Tribune Populaire🌐@TribunePop23·
Pour rappel Peter Thiel (l'autre co-fondateur de Palantir) a grandi dans la ville de néo-nazie de Swakopmund en actuelle Namibie, à l'époque Sud-Ouest africain sous contrôle sud-africain. La ville était une enclave coloniale allemande où, dans les années 1970, on célébrait encore l’anniversaire d’Hitler, on vendait des souvenirs nazis dans les boutiques, et certains habitants se saluaient par « Heil Hitler ! » (New York Times, 1976). Les conditions pour les travailleurs noirs y étaient proches de l’esclavage (salaire de survie, exposition à la radioactivité, logements insalubres). Rien n’est connu sur les opinions politiques de son père. Zéro interview, zéro citation, zéro archive publique. Julie Lythcott-Haims (une de ses camarade de dortoir à Stanford) rapporte qu'elle l'aurait confronté dans sa chambre à propos de son opinion sur l'apartheid. Thiel aurait répondu, sans aucune émotion sur le visage, que « l’apartheid était un système économique sain qui fonctionnait efficacement, et que les questions morales étaient sans importance ». (Medium, 2016) Un autre camarade aurait confirmé un récit similaire. Thiel a nié que cette conversation ait eu lieu. Pensez-vous qu'il est normal qu'une entreprise dirigée par ces 2 individus hautement déséquilibrés soit aussi puissante ? Sources : The Contrarian de Max Chafkin (2021) et dans des articles du Guardian (2025), NPR (2016)
Tribune Populaire🌐 tweet mediaTribune Populaire🌐 tweet media
Tribune Populaire🌐@TribunePop23

🤯 Palantir publie son manifeste... et appelle au REARMEMENT de l'Allemagne et du Japon ainsi qu'au dénigrement des "cultures dysfonctionnelles et NUISIBLES" !! Point 6 Le service national devrait être un devoir universel. Nous devrions, en tant que société, sérieusement envisager de nous éloigner d'une force composée uniquement de volontaires et ne mener la prochaine guerre que si tout le monde partage le risque et le coût. Point 12 L'ère atomique se termine. Une ère de dissuasion, l'ère atomique, se termine, et une nouvelle ère de dissuasion construite sur l'I.A. est sur le point de commencer. Point 15 La neutralisation de l'Allemagne et du Japon d'après-guerre doit être annulée (!!!!) L'affaiblissement de l'Allemagne était une correction excessive pour laquelle l'Europe paie aujourd'hui un prix fort. Un engagement similaire et hautement théâtral envers le pacifisme japonais menacera également, s'il est maintenu, de modifier l'équilibre des puissances en Asie. Point 21 Certaines cultures ont produit des avancées vitales ; d'autres restent dysfonctionnelles et régressives. Toutes les cultures sont désormais égales. La critique et les jugements de valeur sont interdits. Pourtant, ce nouveau dogme passe sous silence le fait que certaines cultures et, en effet, certaines sous-cultures... ont produit des merveilles. D'autres se sont avérées médiocres, et pire encore, régressives et nuisibles. Globalement, le manifeste semble inspiré des écrits de Curtis Yarvin (Mencius Moldbug) et de son idéologie du "Dark Enlightenment" (les Lumières Sombres). Cet auteur rejette la démocratie, promeut la création d'un État-entreprise qui devra remplacer le gouvernement, et imagine que le pays devrait être géré par des PDG-monarques responsables devant des actionnaires qui seraient les détenteurs du capital de l'État.

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Alex Callinicos @alexcallinicos.bsky.social
This from @gideonrachman seems right: ‘The coming weeks, and perhaps months, are likely to see periods of escalation, mixed with periods of talks — with the two processes sometimes running side by side — as Iran and the US test each other’s will. ‘
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Christopher Hale
Christopher Hale@ChristopherHale·
NEW: The families of more than 100 school children killed in the U.S. bombing of an Iranian school have written a letter of gratitude to Pope Leo XIV. In it, they thank him for being a champion of peace and a voice for their deceased children. The White House has yet to apologize for the incident.
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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
At a broad level, it’s important to acknowledge a hard truth: this war is a textbook case of the old saying - "Strategy must precede action" The underlying assumption in the US and Israel was that weakening Iran kineticly would eventually lead to the collapse of the regime and that a sustained U.S.-Israeli campaign, targeting Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, could trigger systemic change thay will change the Middle East. But this war overlooked a critical variable: the Islamic Republic of Iran is a different kind of actor. Traditional cost-benefit calculations don’t apply in the conventional sense. Moreover, the war has generated second-order effects that have made the strategic landscape more complex — not less. From Iran’s growing assertiveness around the Strait of Hormuz, to the hardening of its internal decision-making processes, to the rising influence of Mojtaba Khamenei and the expanding dominance of the IRGC, the Iranian system has, in many ways, become more rigid and more ideological. These dynamics are pushing the administration into a narrowing set of options, none of them good. The choice increasingly looks like this: accept a deal that is, in essence, a strengthened version of the previous nuclear agreement, or return to military escalation that carries significant regional risks without guaranteeing meaningful change in Iran’s behavior. In effect, this war has helped shape what could be called “Islamic Republic 3.0” — a system forged not only through pressure, but also through strategic miscalculation. While the regime may have been weakened militarily and economically, it has, paradoxically, been strengthened internally, particularly among its core base. This may well be the campaign’s most significant strategic miscalculation. The protests inside Iran had left the regime increasingly exposed, struggling to respond to public demands, led by an aging and ailing supreme leader. There was a moment of internal vulnerability. Yet the campaign, despite its tactical achievements, has given the regime a renewed sense of purpose at a time when it was fighting for its political future. Instead of weakening it from within, it has helped consolidate its base and rally its supporters. It remains unclear how this will end. But at this stage, one conclusion is difficult to avoid: alongside tactical gains, the war has produced a more challenging strategic environment for Iran’s neighbors, for Israel, and for the United States. And most importantly, Iran’s leadership has no intention of capitulating. Neither pressure nor escalation is likely to force a deeply ideological regime to abandon its foundational principles. There is no decisive blow. No silver bullet. Only two realistic paths remain: a deal that looks remarkably similar to what Iran was willing to consider before the war — or an expanded conflict with no clear endgame. This is the reality. #IranWar
Face The Nation@FaceTheNation

With negotiations between U.S. and Iranian officials set to take place in Pakistan, former senior Biden administration advisor Amos Hochstein says misunderstandings among negotiators put the U.S. “in a worse position.” “My concern is no matter how the war ends – the Iranians now have a card they never had before in practice,” he adds. “In theory, we knew they can close the straits, but they never did, and now, for the foreseeable future, they have this card against us and against their neighbors.”

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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
“Some advisers encouraged him to do a speech to the nation. White House chief of staff Susie Wiles thought it would reassure the country that Trump had a plan. Trump wasn’t initially interested. What would he say? He couldn’t declare victory. He didn’t know where it was going.” wsj.com/politics/natio…
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Omid Memarian
Omid Memarian@Omid_M·
In this damning piece, the @WSJ explains how Trump’s war with Iran has become deeply personal: public bravado, private anxiety; tactical strikes, strategic drift; dramatic threats, improvised diplomacy, using insults as a tactic to bring Iranians to the negotiating table and screaming at aids. Constant desire to change subjects. Being angry at allies. Even his threat to destroy Iranian “civilization” was made without prior coordination with his national security team. A series of miscalculations. This is a portrait of a commander driven less by strategy than impulse, optics, and fear of failure. This is very disturbing. wsj.com/politics/natio…
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DIE ZEIT
DIE ZEIT@zeitonline·
Javier Milei wollte die argentinische Wirtschaft entfesseln. Zwei Jahre später zeigen neue Daten: Seine Politik hat die industrielle Basis des Landes zerstört. trib.al/6VsEXzb
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Policy Tensor
Policy Tensor@policytensor·
There was a time when the West had the stronger grip on reality. That time is gone. The West is increasingly living in a world of make-believe. It’s right there on the front pages. The Americans insist on having won a great tactical victory, by which they mean that they have released a lot of weapons over Iranian territory. The British and the French say they will secure Hormuz, by which they mean they will secure it from the Barbary pirates after the Iranians stop firing. Meanwhile, we’re told that the Western forces that could not retake Hormuz will somehow repel Chinese forces from Taiwan, that one more set of sanctions will collapse the Russian economy, that preventing China from accessing advanced chips will close the defense-industrial gap, and that a god will soon appear in a data center that will pull the West’s chestnuts out of the fire.
⛵️@zzbar

@policytensor Bonnie’s pay check depends on not believing what you’re preaching.

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Linda Mamoun
Linda Mamoun@mamoun_linda·
There’s a famous story about a rabbi who survived the Holocaust, camps and all, while his entire family was killed. When he returned home, he said, “It could have been worse.” His students asked: “How could it possibly have been worse?” The rabbi replied: “It could have been us doing all the killing.”
Haaretz.com@haaretzcom

'I felt I was a monster': IDF soldiers talk about the 'moral injury' – and the silence haaretz.com/israel-news/is…

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Ron Filipkowski
Ron Filipkowski@RonFilipkowski·
So far, Vance’s foreign policy record is yelling at Zelensky for not thanking Trump enough, campaigning for AfD in Germany and Orban in Hungary, getting rejected by the Pope on his invite to the US, and failing in the Iran negotiations.
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Ali Vaez
Ali Vaez@AliVaez·
The net result of some unwise decisions is negotiating over a nuclear program that was previously contained and trying to reopen a Strait that wasn't closed.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Iran has formally submitted its four "red lines" for peace talks with the US today, per Iranian state TV: 1. Authority over the Strait of Hormuz 2. Payment of war reparations 3. Unfreezing of all blocked Iranian financial assets 4. Securing a comprehensive regional ceasefire In-person negotiations are ongoing as we speak.
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Arnaud Bertrand
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand·
Wow, that's extremely rare for a U.S. treaty ally. South Korea's president, addressing Israel: "It’s disappointing that you don’t even once reflect on the criticisms from people around the world who are suffering and struggling due to your relentless anti-human rights and anti-international law actions." He said this after posting this yesterday (x.com/Jaemyung_Lee/s…), a video of IDF soldiers throwing a young Palestinian off a rooftop and commenting that "there is no difference between this and the Japanese wartime sexual slavery issue we raise, the massacre of Jews, or wartime killings." Israel's Foreign Ministry responded that his post was "unacceptable" but President Lee obviously - and courageously - chose to double down 👇 Also probably says a lot about where U.S.-South Korea relations are at right now.
이재명@Jaemyung_Lee

<끊임없는 반인권적 반국제법적 행동으로 고통받고 힘들어하는 전 세계인들의 지적을 한번쯤은 되돌아볼 만도 한데 실망입니다. 내가 아프면 타인도 그만큼 아픕니다. 나의 필요 때문에 누군가 고통받으면 미안한 것이 인지상정입니다. 아닌 밤중에 홍두깨라고 아무 잘못없는 우리 국민들께서 뜬금없이 겪고 있는 이 엄청난 고통과 국가적 어려움을 지켜보는 마음이 매우 불편합니다. 보편적 인권과 대한민국의 국익을 위해 할 수 있는 일을 더 열심히 찾아봐야겠습니다.> 이스라엘, ‘전시 살해=유대인 학살’ 李대통령 발언에 “용납 못해” v.daum.net/v/202604110641…

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Trita Parsi
Trita Parsi@tparsi·
"And now, somewhere in Riyadh, the Crown Prince is staring at a charred THAAD radar, a half-empty interceptor magazine, and a $142 billion receipt, and he is doing the math Rubio did on television: 100 missiles a month versus six or seven interceptors. And he is realizing, perhaps for the first time, that the Abraham Accords were not a security guarantee. They were a customer acquisition strategy." themiccheck.substack.com/p/the-abraham-…
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