DMA retweetledi
Bears on X: "This market makes no sense why it is hitting all-time highs with the dollar crashing, oil surging, and the end of the world upon us."
Market: "Profits."
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DMA
215 posts
DMA retweetledi
#BKG Berkeley Group Holdings ACE scores this a neutral though arguably it is a veiled profit warning -tho so oversold with an RSI of 27 it's due a technical bounce ..but will that last on the fundas?
In a strategic update, Berkeley Group has re-phased its long-term value creation strategy in response to a prolonged challenging market, geopolitical volatility, and a deteriorating economic outlook, now targeting over £1.4 billion in pre-tax profit over the next four years. This new medium-term guidance, which annualises to approximately £350m per year, represents the primary delta for investors, signalling a significant reduction from the current FY26 forecast of £450m. The decision to reduce work-in-progress investment to match current subdued sales levels, halt new land investment, and focus on balance sheet strength underscores a deeply cautious operational stance. This negative forward-looking outlook is the key takeaway, overshadowing the fact that the company remains on track to meet its previously stated FY26 profit and net cash guidance. The stock entered this announcement in a structural downtrend and is technically oversold, but the negative guidance provides fundamental validation for the bearish trend. While the company's reiterated FY26 guidance of £450m is in line, this implies a significant YoY decline that appears weaker than the average performance trend observed across its peer group, adding to the negative context. The market is likely to interpret this as a defensive but necessary move that sacrifices short-term profit ambitions for long-term stability, with the reduced future profit profile likely to weigh on the valuation.
research published pre market on runprofits.com link if you want an invite runprofits.com/ace-sign-up/
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$MSFT is on track to close below its 200-Week Moving Average for the first time in 10+ Years 🚩
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@stamatoudism Interesting approach Marios, there is some added tells that can be got from further Ai work, at least it doesn’t cost much to test theories out. It can win or save % over the year. I wonder how much beats experience and good old fashioned risk reward.
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Hey Matt ,not really. My main goal with this was to go much deeper on the dimensions, tailwinds, and forces that my intuition and past deep dives kept telling me mattered, but that manual research could never fully uncover due to time limitations and info overload.
Many of these factors are behavioral as well. AI helps chart the uncharted nowadays.
Also it was about developing new models that capture the progressive reality of what makes a stock outperform in the market the past years and be a bit more forward looking into new mechanics in play.
Essentially the whole aspect is to save all the time of research, look at things in more dimensions, map more forces of influence that I know create powerful moves, and essentially increase that “outlier” chance.
The output of this info-intelligence I will still handle manually, but it’s more directed than before.
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Is it just me, or is Twitter/X filled with posts like: “(Company Y) one shotted this”?
For the past 7 months I’ve been immersed in AI ,having a team that works almost full time, sometimes overtime, using the latest developments the moment they emerge… and I haven’t one shotted a single thing.
AI is a human pleaser. Many don’t realize the true magnitude of what this means. It can make things convincing and beautiful even if they are empty inside, not scalable, and faulty.
7+ months, almost working full time on this project , building workflows, building intelligence, creating new models, recognizing and filling industry gaps that have been wide open. Going into rabbit holes that no one I know has ever gone this deep into around trading , physics and mechanisms of the markets… and I haven’t even bothered with the UI still…
There are so many learning curves, best practices, protocols, and discoveries that only happen when you truly mess with AI for a long time, with extreme trial and error.
Of course all that when you want to use AI it for complex purposes like the market ,the most complex game in the world. I am not talking about a quick tool to make an approach easier.
The “one-shotted approach” that all these companies are pushing is incredibly distracting. The ripple effects of this will become evident soon, both in life and in the markets.
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@Johnm7fr @maxkarpis Likely your work colleague is a server based in Romanian.
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@maxkarpis A work colleague of mine was buying a car and Revolut wanted to see the conversation he had with the guy he was buying the car from, the registration, a photo of him next to the care. All sorts. Revolut will never be taken serious by 99% of the world
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I am going to say it, some may not like it.
Andrew and Tristan Tate brothers, are playing as victims for attention farming.
That's how they grow their following.
I see many people fall in to the trap.
Revolut doesn't restrict customer accounts without a reason.
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I probably haven't seen so many news articles about Revolut as I see today.
Everywhere I look, it's just the Revolut UK bank licence story. This will continue around the world for about 2 weeks.
Revolut is getting massive exposure.
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@maxkarpis Nice thought Max! What great news, I can’t wait to see the new products roll out. Hope you can cover your ideas of all the potential new opportunities to come.?
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FT drops the bomb → Revolut's UK banking licence is coming THIS WEEK.
But wait—Revolut didn't wait.
An hour later: teaser tweet. Minutes after: full confirmation.
Have Revolut forced the regulators to accelerate?
Classic "move fast break things" move?
Here is my breakdown:
Yesterday, the Financial Times (FT) reported that the Bank of England’s Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) is expected to grant Revolut a UK banking licence as soon as this week, according to people familiar with the matter.
Also, FT reported that Revolut and the PRA declined to comment on the matter. Approximately an hour after FT’s report was published, Revolut posted on X, suggesting that a UK bank licence had been granted. A few minutes later, Revolut posted a full release confirming authorisation of a full UK bank license.
It was clear from the initial version of FT’s report that neither PRA nor Revolut was prepared to announce anything that day and declined to comment. But as the news got out, presumably Revolut tried to manage the situation and rather than postponing the official announcement, decided to confirm the fact. So it's very likely Revolut contacted PRA and told them that FT had leaked internal information, that they don't want speculation to develop in the public, and they requested PRA's permission to make an official announcement sooner than planned.
Looking at the sequence of events, it seems to be the case from my perspective.
Later, FT updated its original report, saying that PRA “has lifted restrictions on the authorisation it granted two years ago, Revolut said on Wednesday”.
This may not be a significant detail, but did Revolut intentionally leak that information to the FT? It's possible, given the company's eagerness to move forward with plans in the UK, which are also holding up progress in other countries.
Just as news came out, Nik Storonsky, Revolut CEO, announced that Revolut plans to begin onboarding new customers to the UK bank as soon as next week. That again suggests that Revolut was ready to proceed.
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@xzxczdscsdc @TheShortBear It’s the same thing. Not cutting or staying the same, is a fiscal drag on profits. The longer oil stays high the longer that becomes the main cause. But the combination of all 3 is what kills stocks. Look at mortgage rates.
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@dmamarkets @TheShortBear Rates have risen plenty since 2021, stock are also up plenty...
It's rate cuts that you don't want.
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This starts as an Oil issue but it turns into a investment flows crisis if drags on.
The damage of Oil itself is secondary.
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@maxkarpis @Meta The EU and UK is awash with hard to get, hidden out of sight data but actually is available for the public. Claude will break down all walls. It will make Banks and government v accountable.
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Revolut just released the Consumer Security and Financial Crime Report FY25.
The report shows that unauthorised fraud at Revolut is declining, but authorised fraud is increasing. @Meta platforms are the largest source of fraud for Revolut customers.
The most common types of scams are purchase and job scams; younger demographics are most likely to fall for purchase scams.
There much more details in the report: assets.revolut.com/pdf/Revolut_Co…
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@TheShortBear NVDA Is the biggest beneficiary in the physical component that servers an API.
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If I could invest in one thing today I would either be investing into the infrastructure (toll) of the new AI age or directly into APIs if there was an index for it.
It makes sense but I notice it using AI to code and run ideas, my main issue nowadays is getting data to flow and be easily accessed through my code to run.
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DMA retweetledi
INSANITY!
South Korea Bull 3x Shares +1,000% past year
$KORU
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Is this a genuine thought.? What strikes me is that ALL of the accounts with 20-50k followers have immediately jumped into the debate. And of course I understand why, because they can engage and maintain their 1-2 k payouts from X advertisers a month. It must be so tempting to make comment on everything everyday.
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I think Burry got what he wanted - Attention
Didnt run ad campaigns, no promo code, no President’s day sale… he let the $PLTR-ards + PLTR haters handle the marketing & distribution for free
Zero Sales & Marketing. Zero CAC
Outrage-as-a-Service that AI can’t disrupt
Genius!
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@niuxiongtrader @michaeljburry Do you know what he intends to do with that money ? When you know they don’t need the money in the first place, then it’s a question of deployment.
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@michaeljburry If you can make money on stock market, you won’t even consider selling a service. Thats what weak pussies do. It’s because you can’t guarantee make menu from the market, you need a back up plan.
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@michaeljburry Amits reply is probably the best short signal there is in the business. When you cannot be objective or discuss the other side of the trade, it is at that point the ego is in control. This is actually worse than I thought.
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@amitisinvesting This is probably the best short signal I have ever seen.
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$PLTR
Had a few days to read through everything Burry has put out on Palantir.
First, I agree with everything Arny laid out below and it is a must-read around the worst takes of his 10,000 word article. I'd like to add the following thoughts:
1. This feels like a complete and utter grift. Why? There is a paywall attached to the article and he knows Palantir is a hot topic so he can sell more subscriptions if he were to go after the company. Everything around this just seems like someone who is going after clicks and trying to find his next big thing to be upset about (so many people missed the Palantir story or generally hate the company) so he knows he has an audience that would be willing to click and pay for this.
2. The entire premise of these 10,000 words is quite frankly rooted in nonsense. Anyone can complain about the valuation for a company. Palantir has always been expensive (there are many reasons to explain why) and arguing about the stock is fine. The problem with the article is Burry tries to argue the company itself, it's technology, and it's results are all fake. To be honest, this is a bit laughable. For those that have actually studied the company in depth over the past few years, there are many layers to understanding why Palantir is mission critical in every layer of the US govt, why their software is part of every important geopolitical event, why they are able to compound revenues at 70% as the only really SaaS company showing the benefits from AI, why Maven is becoming the backbone of the Department of War...I can go on and on but to dismiss all of these quantitative and qualitative results as "its a consulting company with a fancy backend" is LAUGHABLE and using arguments from years ago that are simply not relevant today.
3. I don't think Burry is actually looking into how AI becomes valuable in the enterprise. His entire premise for Palantir not being an AI company is that they haven't developed an LLM...newsflash: that's the point. Karp has been clear from the beginning that LLMs would become a commodity and being able to orchestrate the LLMs within the enterprise was going to be where all the value came from. The ENTIRE reason AIP was successful was because it took 20 years to build the foundations to actually implement LLMs and once the LLM revolution began, Palantir was ready to help companies harness the power of those models. This was the worst part of the report to me, it's almost as if he did ZERO research into what the company actually does...which if you are going to write a 10,000 word article...it would probably make sense to do research and understand the usecases of the product. If you were trying to sell subscriptions, the goal would be to simplify the entire business to a talking point so that headlines would catch fire and you could get more people to pay for the subscription.
4. The majority of the report seemed to be focused on the past with Palantir's DPO. The business is not the same business as it is today. Every company evolves and goes through hard times but the ones that actually survive are the ones that create value, show real growth, are able to sustain it, innovate, and do it in a way that actually brings global brand awareness at scale. Palantir has done that and they have done it with less than 4000 people working at the company which just goes to show how incredible the culture is for them to put up those results. Complaining about financials from years ago is irrelevant when we look at the financials today, which those financials have been given a premium, and how investors continue to believe in the growth of the business now as one of the most important companies on the planet.
Finally, the largest issue I have with this is when you look to what Burry is actually bullish on this year...which is...Gamestop. Please think of this carefully...one of the most important software companies on the planet with 50% margins and 70% growth is a scam, fake, not real AI, unsophisticated technology...but a company that sells videogames and buys bitcoin with the money they dilute shareholders with is what Burry thinks real value lies? Again, you could be bullish on GME, I quite frankly don't care, but the problem is the disparity between a videogame company and the software that is on the frontlines of every single major important geopolitical event is too large to take any of this seriously. I mean, it genuinely feels like a full grift to tell your followers to "go meme it up" when writing about GME but then at the same time try to advertise that Palantir is fake. It makes no sense. It is all rooted in personal self interest to promote the stock he is long and play down the stock he is short when any rational person would look at the 7B of revenue Palantir is going to do in 2026 (sticky revenue that compounds at amazing margins in mission critical situations) and then compare that to Burry's horrific analysis of the company.
This is embarrassing in my opinion and showcasing an unbelievably disgusting form of grifting from someone who has too much influence to do so, but I guess this is the route he has chosen to go on.
Arny Trezzi@arny_trezzi
$PLTR I just read @michaeljburry's new short report. This is BURRYSH1T. +10,000 words. Here are the 10 worst takes: 1. "Palantir’s margins are not even SaaS-level, but when Palantir’s functionality succumbs to the commoditization of AI coding tools, they will fall further." 2. "The result is a Net Dollar Retention surge from 107% to 139%. 139 is extraordinary. It is also suspect. Such heights are rarely sustained and almost always associated with base effects. 3. "Not enough bandwidth? That sounds exactly like a consultancy. Not enough integration engineers, not enough Palantir people to customize the installations." 4. "So, after the company lost $4bn in almost 20 years as a private company, it has continued to give tons of stock to employees while losing money on bubble SPACs and growing to a remarkably petite $4.5bn revenue for 2025 – petite for being the U.S. government’s pet data enforcer AND an AI FOMO/Lucky Strike poster child." 5. "[Selling Gotham] was not too hard. Government software was terrible, and hence, low-hanging fruit. It took 3y, but after that, low hanging fruit." 6. "Foundry was produced in 8 weeks, AIP in a few weeks. Foundry is an integration layer for thin apps that require extensive customization. AIP is simply a wrapper. Putting the cost of its fleet of FDEs in R&D pumps up R&D artificially." 7. "Palantir moved to 'bootcamps' – short demos in lieu of full FDE deployments – as a way to onboard Foundry AIP customers faster and improve margins. As these boot camps are rehearsed scenarios built on curated data, for ease of use, they can fail in real life scenarios that vary from the curated ones." 8. "Palantir creates architectural overhead in a system, and now that LLMs are integrated into this overhead, the coming commoditization of LLMs should render Palantir a user interface provider of little value. 9. "Let’s spend some time on those money-losing years onas it was a very long time for a company full of supposed geniuses to not make any money." 10. "Calling his engineering consultants 'forward deployed' fit right into his desired noble, militaristic vibe. A righteous and right company." ------------------------------ I lost 10 QI points while reading the entire report, so you don't have to. Here are a few personal thoughts: 1. The report seems entirely written by GPT. 2. ~20% of the report is focused on how the company was at DPO in 2020. We are in 2026 😉 3. Doubts on the validity of the software are dismantled by customers themselves: • Airbus, client since 2015, just got a ~$1bn 10y expansion • Hyundai HD, client since 2021, just got a "hundreds of millions" expansion • $200mn Lumen expansion • $440mn deal with the US Navy to provide Ship OS; Are these clients nuts? 😆 4. Burry wildly misunderstand the Palantir's AI thesis. Burry just sees AI = LLM , but there is much more than that. Palantir doesn't build an AI model. Palantir bets that as LLMs converge toward commoditization, value will increasingly shift to the model-orchestration layer to deliver outcomes: call it AIP. The 20 years of building software in the most critical use cases put Palantir in a prime position to capitalize on this. 5. Burry wildly misunderstands Palantir's financials, as he believes growth and margins will decrease. Operating leverage + network effects = sustained growth with expanding margins 6. Trying to prove US Commercial is a scam by showing International Commerce does't grow is dumb. Palantir voluntarily pivoted the entire company on the success of US Commercial, the most important market, while it saw the Int market was not ready to capture the AI wave. US Commercial: +137% YoY Revenue Growth +145% YoY Remaining Deal Value +49 % clients 7. Seeing the low number of clients as a minus is dumb. The fact that Palantir has been able to generate ~$4bn with ~1,000 clients shows an abnormal earnings potential vs its similar size "competitors": • Databricks (17,000 clients), • Snowflake (12,000 clients), 8. Many concerns have dismantled infinite times: • "consultancy" • "SPACs" • "SBC" They are not concerns now. 9. Dilution is simply not an issue any longer. The truth is in the Earnings Per Share: • 8x YoY • 43% GAAP Margin. PLTR is diluting by 2% while growing revenue by ~70% at 57% EBIT adj margin. As an investor, I am only happy if we get only 2% dilution to get these results. 10. His $46 valuation uses dumb inputs: • 16% WACC is crazy. PLTR is no longer a money-burning startup. • 4% dilution vs 2% actual dilution • 50% growth for 5 years and 25% after: this is not that negative, but inferior to what the strength of the company can achieve. 11. Burrito is proving himself to be a bad influencer more than an investor. If he had properly analysed the situation (he could subscribe to @PalantirBullets for free), he could have focused on discussing valid points. Essentially, he wanted to short and asked GPT to help him draft the thesis, leveraging his "influencer status." If he wanted to provide a reasonable short report, he would have provided evidence like: • big customers churning; • product failing to deliver; • serious evidence of corporate misconduct. Why hasn't he done this? There is simply no ground. There was once an investor. Now there is only a substack grifter. Yours, @arny_trezzi
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Edit: I could not edit this, so I deleted it and re-posted, I made a mistake on my totals, should have been for the year not month.
I've got good news and I've got bad news.
The Bad News:
Today I lost Negative One Hundred Seventy-Four Thousand Two Hundred Fifty-Eight dollars between my swing account and my main account.
Basically way too large of size on my positions, too much confidence and all margin call sells. I tried many trades to make some back, nothing really worked and dug a deeper hole.
It can always get worse.
I was holding $AMZN and just went another -$20k red on me and counting.
The Good News:
For the year, I am still up +$67,394. I am off to Apex Mtn. and then the lake house this weekend for a week.
I am not posting again until I learn how to trade properly and stop out of losers when I should.
Hope you are fairing well and have a great weekend and next week!
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@andrewdc208 $ZSL trade any size you want...short $SLV, $Gold and long $DUST
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#Silver - Having largely avoided $SLV options for weeks, even I got FOMO today n had a go, this intraday volatility is awesome!
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