David Owens

Having Trout National open is a true full circle moment. What started as a hometown vision is now a reality, built alongside an incredible group of family, friends, and partners who believed in it from the start. Grateful for all of you. Thank you!

"so you staked your ETH on the Ethereum blockchain to earn yield?" "yes, Dave" "except you didn't want your capital to be locked up so you actually staked it with a liquid staking protocol called Lido?" "that's correct, Dave" "and Lido gave you a liquid staking receipt token called stETH in return?" "yes, Dave" "and then you didn't think that was enough, so you juiced the yield even further by depositing your stETH receipt tokens into a restaking protocol called Eigenlayer?" "you are correct, Dave" "and now you didn't want to lock up your capital, so you actually restaked with a liquid restaking protocol called KelpDAO who provided you with a liquid restaking receipt token called rsETH?" "you got it, Dave" "and then that was surely not enough juice, so you then deposited your rsETH tokens into a lending protocol called AAVE so that you could open a leveraged looping position that borrows ETH against the rsETH collateral and restakes the ETH into rsETH which is then deposited as collateral, except it turns out rsETH used a cross-chain bridge called LayerZero whose security is held together by a 1/1 toothpick, which was obviously hacked by north koreans causing rsETH to become undercollateralized and now these looping positions are stuck and unprofitable, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and also DeFi is a very serious industry" "you are 100% correct, dave" jfc.

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Well, we smashed through the first major area of support on the $SPX so at this stage I would say this pullback is actually quite significant. Zooming out as a reminder that we are likely in the final innings of what has been a secular bull market since 2008 (if we haven't already topped). We can see that the wave structure is pretty clean/clear leading into this final 5th wave. Which means, we are overdue for a major, massive market correction "of a higher degree", similar in time/magnitude to what we saw during the 2000-2008 period. The big question is, has that correction already begun and have we just seen the top in trad markets for the coming 5+ years, OR are we still working on that final, parabolic, blow off top that has clearly been in the making for years? It's important to note that as we see a final, cycle ending parabolic advance- it's common to see very aggressive/fast/deep pullbacks on the way up as we approach the top of the parabola. We go up quicker than ever before, with sharp shakeouts in between, until finally, something breaks. For perspective, the last two major corrections on the SPX were 35% in 2020 and 28% in 2022. These were both followed by new ATH. Our current correction is about 17% off the top, so at current depth it's similar in magnitude to our last couple intra-cycle corrections. However, if we are still working on this parabolic advance and the top isn't in, major areas of HTF demand/support should be respected. Our next main area of HTF demand/support is at 4100-4600- about 10-15% lower from current levels. This would be, imo, the last acceptable bounce zone if we are to continue our parabolic ascent. Lose it, and I would have to lean towards our cycle top on the SPX already being in. $ES