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#ShogunFX fans, enjoy this music suite I composed a few years ago inspired by #JamesClavell's epic novel, #Shogun
@LongmirePosse
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David Shephard
15K posts
David Shephard
@dshephard
Composer for Film and Television
Los Angeles Katılım Ekim 2008
1.3K Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
both outfits are boring. but the fat guy looks better.
Reece Schnell@schnellreece007
If you want to dress well, be lean. (Same outfit btw)
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@TXMCtrades Bro, we are dying here under this avalanche of unedited content.
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@SamanthaLaDuc And there's this, which only adds to suspicion...
x.com/adamscochran/s…
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran
5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!
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Trump is a market manipulator extraordinaire. We hit KEY bond & market support & he enters with a 5-day “policy intervention” - except that it won’t be accepted by Iran & it’s all a farce! So sadly, it will trap gullible bulls.
Korobochka (コロボ) 🇦🇺✝️@cirnosad
Iran FM confirms that there are no direct communications with Trump and that he made up the entire thing, Iran's position remains unchanged. Hormuz remains closed to Iran's enemies.
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David Shephard retweetledi
You need to watch Kenneth Clark’s 1969 docuseries, Civilisation. He covers the fall of Rome up to the mid 20th century. It’s 13 parts and 11 hours long, but it’s incredible.
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Sometimes I worry that Trump and the people around him have no clue what they are actually doing and our whole world is at the mercy of the whims of a narcissistic personality disorder.
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@cycle_strategy No, the one to which I replied, from March 12, above.
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@dshephard Thanks! Which one do you mean, from the 22nd of February?
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We are witnessing an absolutely historic disruption of energy markets that clearly overshadows previous disruptions. A complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would affect roughly 15% of global production, as around 6 million barrels per day could likely be rerouted via pipelines and the Red Sea. Based on our rough estimate that about 7–8% of global supply can already no longer be produced, we are effectively already in the scenario of the 1970s. However, that is already the base case at present. Further escalations or a truly sustained closure of Hormuz would lead us into completely historic chaos.
Cycle Investment Strategy@cycle_strategy
This will be the biggest supply chain crisis the modern world has seen post WWII. The disruption is 2-3x larger than in the worst 70s oil crisis but supply chains are way more global and complex. Hyper complex systems react exponentially (butterfly effect). Take measures now.
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@aeberman12 Precisely the best time to use that power as leverage in a negotiated settlement.
Furthermore, Iran's incentive is to forestall an economic, human and societal collapse all while proving to the world they withstood the might of 2 of the most powerful militaries in the world.
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The problem is that Iran will never be more powerful than it is today @dshephard
What’s the incentive to take anything less (especially since it doesn’t care about the Iranian people) ?
David Shephard@dshephard
@aeberman12 It's a fair question. Both sides have obvious incentive to talk regardless of deep mutual distrust. They each are calculating how to spin their exit as a win. I think Trump's threat is his pre-exit spin of a win. The alternative is suicidal madness.
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@LucifersTweetz Whatever it is, the bar has been lowering dramatically lately
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@aeberman12 It's a fair question.
Both sides have obvious incentive to talk regardless of deep mutual distrust. They each are calculating how to spin their exit as a win.
I think Trump's threat is his pre-exit spin of a win.
The alternative is suicidal madness.
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You're right about the flatulence of Trump's public statements @dshephard
But what would be the point of private talks with Iran?
Previous talks led to war & Iran's hand is now far stronger
David Shephard@dshephard
@aeberman12 @ctindale Tbh, I think it's a ruse. For all we know they're already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, he says this threat to make his bravado & intimidation look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation
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@ggreenwald Tbh, I think it's a ruse b/c the reality of it is suicidal madness.
For all we know he's already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, says this to make his tough talk look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation.
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Liberating the Iranian people by bombing their oil refineries, poisoning their air, destroying their fresh water supplies, exploding their elementary schools, and now "obliterating" their power plants. Who wouldn't be grateful for this?
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
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@TXMCtrades Tbh, I think it's a ruse b/c the reality of it is suicidal madness.
For all we know he's already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, says this to make his tough talk look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation.
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@NickKristof Tbh, I think it's a ruse b/c the reality of it is suicidal madness.
For all we know they're already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, he says this to make his bravado look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation
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1.) President Trump appears to be threatening a war crime; 2.) This will go over badly with other Gulf countries, for Iran will then attack their power plants and perhaps desalination; 3.) Iran won't reopen the Strait, because closure is what gives it leverage.
The White House@WhiteHouse
🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP
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N.A. farmers are in good shape for spring fertilizer.
Potash - everything should be in place
Phosphate - everything should be in place
NH3 - most demand is met by domestic production
UAN - most demand is met by domestic production
Urea - of the 5 - 5.5M import needed, 3.5M already lined up thru March
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@ShaleTier7 Which is why I think it's a ruse.
For all we know they're already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, he says this to make his bravado & intimidation look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation
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I am just a guy that likes making my maps but I do feel somewhat compelled to say that Iran has a particularly good power grid, and gas distribution network. Like nearly impossible to destroy.
I mean, I think Iran has a better gas transmission footprint than Canada. I know know who this tweet is for, but maybe these maps are helpful.
In 2017, Iran exported 7,871 GWh and imported ~4 kWh, mainly exporting to Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Iran's 4.3MWh per capita of annual electricity consumption is actually in-line with the UK at 4.6MWh per capita, and ~25% ahead of countries like Brazil and South Africa.
Attacking a very hardened system like this, and opening the Gulf up to attacks on far more single-failure-point assets -- seems wildly, WILDLY stupid.
The White House@WhiteHouse
🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP
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@ChrisMurphyCT Tbh, I think it's a ruse b/c the reality of it is suicidal madness.
For all we know they're already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, he says this to make his bravado look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation
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He’s lost control of the war and he is panicking.
Barak Ravid@BarakRavid
🚨🚨Trump on Truth Social: "If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST! Thank you for your attention to this matter"
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@aeberman12 @ctindale Tbh, I think it's a ruse.
For all we know they're already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, he says this threat to make his bravado & intimidation look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation
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Taking down Iran’s power grid would not be a clean military move, writes @ctindale
t would hit water, refineries, hospitals, telecoms, transit, and industry all at once.
That may weaken the state.
It would also risk humanitarian collapse and damage that lasts for decades.
#Iran #IranWar #Infrastructure #PowerGrid #EnergyCrisis #Geopolitics #HumanitarianCrisis #MiddleEast
🇦🇺Craig Tindale@ctindale
Decoding Trump on Iran electrical infrastructure threats The strategical & tactical consequences and the motivation/s ———-expressed in neutral moral terms explicitly so the facts can land . The neutralization of Iran’s electrical infrastructure focuses on twelve nodes that support the nation's political, military, and industrial operations. The Damavand Combined Cycle Power Plant near Tehran stands as the primary target for the central region. It provides the base load for the capital’s ten million residents and the administrative heart of the government. Its removal triggers a total failure of high-altitude water pumping stations and urban transit systems. The Shahid Rajaee Power Plant in Qazvin acts as the secondary anchor for the northwest industrial corridor. It supplies the heavy manufacturing zones that produce automotive parts and defense components. In the northern Caspian region, the Neka (Shahid Salimi) Power Plant maintains grid frequency for the agricultural and logistical hubs bordering Russia. Its destruction isolates the northern provinces and halts the operation of strategic port facilities. To the southwest, the Ramin Power Plant in Ahvaz and the Abadan Power Plant provide the high-voltage energy required for oil extraction and refinery operations in Khuzestan. Disabling these plants shuts down domestic fuel production. Electric pumps and cooling systems are necessary for crude processing. The southern coastal theater relies on the Bushehr Nuclear and Conventional complex and the Bandar Abbas Thermal Plant. These facilities are the sole energy providers for the desalination plants that supply potable water to the IRGC naval bases and the millions of civilians in the arid southern provinces. The neutralization of these coastal nodes creates an immediate humanitarian crisis. Water storage in these regions is limited to a 48-hour window. The Asaluyeh Power Plants, integrated into the South Pars gas complex, are already degraded. Their destruction halts the production of petrochemicals and fertilizers. These are essential for domestic food security and foreign exchange. Civilian defense capabilities collapse as the national grid fails. Modern Passive Defense (Sazman-e Padafand-e Gheyr-e Amel) protocols require active power for the subterranean bunkers and civil defense centers that coordinate emergency responses. Hospital systems face immediate failure as backup diesel generators exhaust localized fuel supplies within 72 hours. This is particularly certain given the disruption of the domestic refinery network. Telecommunications and internet connectivity vanish entirely. This prevents the state from managing the movement of the 3.2 million internally displaced persons fleeing urban centers for the rural north. Manufacturing for the defense sector experiences total paralysis. The assembly of solid-fuel missiles and drone components requires precise temperature control and high-energy industrial mixers. A grid collapse halts these production lines and prevents the testing of guidance systems. Heavy industries, including aluminum smelters and steel mills in the Persian Gulf Special Zone, suffer permanent equipment damage from sudden power loss. Molten materials solidify within the furnaces. It’s that thing I keep referring to if you’re a regular reader the idea that our infrastructure can be immediately bought back online in any country is one of our naive beliefs. This creates a multi-decade timeline for industrial reconstruction. The result is a transition from a centralized industrial state to a fragmented, localized survival economy. There is a humanitarian catastrophe lurking here that is hard to contemplate .
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@ianbremmer Ppl always make the mistake of taking him literally.
For all we know they're already in private talks w/ Iran to deescalate and, knowing that, he says this to make his bravado & intimidation look effective once the deal becomes public. In his mind, this restores his reputation
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i worry that tehran interprets this level of incoherence/inconsistency as panic.
The White House@WhiteHouse
🚨 “If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST…” - President DONALD J. TRUMP
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@Amy_Siskind For all we know they already have a private agreement w/ Iran in the works to deescalate and, knowing that, he threw this out there to make it look like his bravado and intimidation is effective once the deal becomes public.
TBH, I bet it's that.
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What happens in 48 hours when they don’t reopen the strait?
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@AmyMcGrathKY Congress is just a phone call away.
"Where are you?" is the question. Reach out to them and let them know what you support and don't support.
They will not act until they fear the voters more than they fear Trump!
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Where is Congress? It’s absolutely insane that one reckless man can escalate this affecting all of us and other nations in the region without Congress doing anything at all.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
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@MarioNawfal @josephwang Yeah, because all of his other threats worked so well. 🤦🏻♂️
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: Trump gives Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or the U.S. will obliterate their power plants, "starting with the biggest one first."
Three weeks of "winding down" talk just ended with the most aggressive threat of the entire war.
Destroying Iran's power grid would plunge 90 million people into darkness and trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.
The next two days will define everything.
Source: Truth Social
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 Iran just dropped its official demands to end the war. Tehran wants: 1. Ironclad guarantees the war never happens again 2. Every single U.S. military base in the Middle East shut down 3. Full compensation paid by the U.S. and Israel for all damage 4. Complete end to all wars across the region, including against pro-Iran groups 5. A brand-new legal regime giving Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz 6. “Hostile media” figures handed over to Iran That’s their price for peace. To that, Trump had already released a "preemptive strike" by saying: "They want to make a deal. I don’t!" I don't see it happening, guys. Source: RN Intel
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