durackpl

983 posts

durackpl

durackpl

@durackpl

!!!

Australia Katılım Mart 2014
27 Takip Edilen4 Takipçiler
durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
The Liberal Party’s main policy is the indexation of income tax brackets, which directly appeals to wage earners, isn’t it?
Kos Samaras@KosSamaras

Labor’s and One Nation’s base get a payslip, not a profit share. Guess who is left representing the rump? I’ve been watching, running and commentating on political campaigns for longer than most Gen Z have been alive. The biggest lesson? The Coalition are terrible at demographics. They’ve never grasped how small the class they’ve always represented actually is, or how large the class they ignored (that stuck loyal to them for decades) has become. That ignored class (former Liberal voters) has now walked across to One Nation. And beyond age and TAFE education, their defining feature is this: they’re salaried. The flip side? Labor’s base is also mainly salaried. Which is exactly why their budget is built around that group. The Coalition are like Haig’s generals, fighting the last war from a château miles behind the line, certain one more push will break through. 3 graphs illustrate this basis point - graphs by Greg Jericho from the Guardian.

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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@HarryFromSyd @ryu_tay I exaggerated a bit — the exact statement was that, on average, share investors would have paid roughly the same amount of tax under both the inflation indexation model and the 50% CGT discount model over the past low-inflation period.
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Harry Snape
Harry Snape@HarryFromSyd·
@durackpl @ryu_tay Were they using pre1999 CGT indexation, or this budget’s version, because they aren’t the same. Averages are used to hide the inequities, many have converted to ETFs which have outdone inflation
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@HarryFromSyd @ryu_tay It’s not hope — it’s what is alleged in the budget papers: that the average share investor couldn’t outperform inflation, and that was during a period of low inflation, I might add, from 1999 onward.
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@GeoffWilsonWAM @JEChalmers @AlboMP On average, shareholders would’ve paid less capital gains tax under indexation over the time since 1999. It’s in the budget papers, allegedly backed by statistical analysis.
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Geoff Wilson
Geoff Wilson@GeoffWilsonWAM·
Gaslighting by @JEChalmers. The master gaslighter. Not answering the question. He thinks all Australians particularly the young are idiots. Have a listen. Make the government @AlboMP not to change the tax on Australian companies, shares, LICs and ETFs
Arrow Investor@ArrowInvestor

How dumb is this tool. Chalmers asked why are they changing the tax on shares not just property? He says because shares have been under compensated for the past 2 decades. So he will now compensate them by increasing tax on them?

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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@TheKouk New Zealand’s GDP per capita (in constant dollars) increased from approximately $34,000 in 2004 to $42,000 in 2024 — an increase of about 24%. Over the same period, Australia’s GDP per capita rose from around $51,000 to $61,000 — an increase of about 20%.
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@TheKouk You should compare the trends rather than the absolute values — specifically, how GDP per capita changed over two decades in New Zealand versus how it changed over two decades in Australia — instead of directly comparing the absolute GDP per capita figures.
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Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·
Zero capital gains tax in New Zealand for decades: Per capita GDP is US$52,000 Australia per capita GDP is US$75,600
Michael Arbon@arbsmichael

Australians should familiarise themselves with the term capital flight. Capital flight is what happens when investors and businesses leave for countries with lower taxes, greater stability and less hostility toward success. Labor has dressed their big taxing budget up as “intergenerational fairness,” but in reality it is a regressive and punitive tax regime that will undermine investment and aspiration. These changes don’t just hit property investors. They punish small family businesses, entrepreneurs, and investors in assets like equities, ETFs, crypto and precious metals. Jim Chalmers' policies will drive investment offshore and make Australia poorer.

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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@TheKouk Higher rates push consumers to save instead of spend, helping kill the inflation. The alternative: 4.5% inflation gives government a huge revenue windfall, which it spends. The RBA hikes rates aggressively, but rate hikes barely affect government spending, so inflation persists.
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Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·
If the indexation of income tax scales was in place now, given inflation is 4.6% there would be huge income tax cuts coming. This would stimulate household spending & add significantly to inflation. Crazy ah? RBA would be forced to hike interest rates aggressively ICYMI
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk

Opposition leader Angus Taylor is promising, if elected, to index income tax scales to the inflation rate. This is not a good idea. For example, if inflation was 2.5%, the level at which a worker moves from a tax rate of 30% to 37% is lifted from $135,001 to $138,376. They are automatic income tax cuts in line with inflation. If inflation is 5%, as it is not, that tax scale would rise from $135,001 to $141,751. A huge rise and a huge tax cut at a time when inflation is ripping along. The problem with such a scheme is clearly that it is pro-cyclical. In an era of high inflation and an overheating economy, the rise in the tax scales will be big which gives large income tax cuts to the workforce. This would see the policy working against the RBA's anti-inflationary stance in this example. Interest rates would be even higher as a result. The proposal would make it much harder for the RBA to meets its inflation target and / or will require much greater volatility in interest rates as the RBA fights to offset the pro-cyclical nature of the the indexation of tax scales. And it costs a fortune - a chunky $23 billion in 4 years. youtube.com/watch?v=PaSZG2…

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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@TheKouk According to this “analysis,” letting people keep more of their own money during an inflation spike is supposedly harmful, but letting the government keep and spend that money is somehow beneficial.
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Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·
Opposition leader Angus Taylor is promising, if elected, to index income tax scales to the inflation rate. This is not a good idea. For example, if inflation was 2.5%, the level at which a worker moves from a tax rate of 30% to 37% is lifted from $135,001 to $138,376. They are automatic income tax cuts in line with inflation. If inflation is 5%, as it is not, that tax scale would rise from $135,001 to $141,751. A huge rise and a huge tax cut at a time when inflation is ripping along. The problem with such a scheme is clearly that it is pro-cyclical. In an era of high inflation and an overheating economy, the rise in the tax scales will be big which gives large income tax cuts to the workforce. This would see the policy working against the RBA's anti-inflationary stance in this example. Interest rates would be even higher as a result. The proposal would make it much harder for the RBA to meets its inflation target and / or will require much greater volatility in interest rates as the RBA fights to offset the pro-cyclical nature of the the indexation of tax scales. And it costs a fortune - a chunky $23 billion in 4 years. youtube.com/watch?v=PaSZG2…
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@ash948311 @bowtiedstocks Two wrongs don’t make a right. If the budget is running a deficit, the government should reduce spending rather than raise taxes.
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BowTiedStocks
BowTiedStocks@bowtiedstocks·
The negative gearing change is a minor issue in reality - it is a timing difference rather than a permanent difference and just for existing resi propadee The real worry is the massive increase in CGT in assets totally unrelated to residential housing
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@scrypto_ I thought negative gearing in SMSFs is really just carried-forward losses, and not the same as negative gearing for individuals, where rental losses can be deducted against wage income in the same financial year.
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scrypto
scrypto@scrypto_·
In all seriousness, the path to wealth in Australia now lies in managed investment funds. We’re disincentivized from private investment, but not from investing with funds. Good luck to anyone who doesn’t have sophisticated investor status.
scrypto tweet media
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@TheKouk That sounds suspiciously similar to Bowen's “If you don’t like our policies, don’t vote Labor.”
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Stephen Koukoulas
Stephen Koukoulas@TheKouk·
If tax policy is the fundamental issue for you when you are starting a business, perhaps stick to knitting ...
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@ash948311 @bowtiedstocks It’s a fair point, but there’s a better way to balance the taxation of capital and income: lower taxes on labour income to match the tax rate on capital.
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Nelpris33
Nelpris33@ash948311·
@bowtiedstocks Taxing income from capital gains at a similar rate to wages is 100% the fair thing to do. I would like to hear the arguments how it isnt fair to do so?
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@lukewinchester9 If I have $100k in capital gains and have to pay $30k in tax on it, that’s still better than having a $100k gain on one stock and a $100k loss on another, isn’t it?
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Luke Winchester
Luke Winchester@lukewinchester9·
This budget reform is huge for ASX microcaps as investors will desperately pile into assets which generate capital losses to offset gains.
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@bowtiedstocks Yes, rents are driven by incomes & vacancy rates. Abolishing tax breaks for investors would likely push vacancies lower. Inflation is also lifting incomes. Under the current trajectory, the direction is clear. If migration is cut or a recession hits, that’s a different scenario.
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BowTiedStocks
BowTiedStocks@bowtiedstocks·
Most propadee types look at things backwards They think rents are going to rise just like magic due to tax changes At least this is what they kick and scream about Here’s a hint - rents are driven by incomes and vacancy rates It at no point enters their pea sized brains that prices will instead correct materially
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@bowtiedstocks The other side (in Victoria) will happily give away cash as well. The problem is not the politicians, but those who elect them. The public has been force-fed the idea that government knows best for a decade. It may take another decade before this fallacy disappears.
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@bowtiedstocks Interesting stock. Looks like it may be entering a down cycle after the 2023 exuberance. It also held up better than expected in the 2022 downturn. Today’s sell-off may be partly tied to the ASIC investigation? If FY26 EPS lands ~6c, that’s below trend but implies ~10x P/E.
durackpl tweet media
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BowTiedStocks
BowTiedStocks@bowtiedstocks·
$AX1.AX Accent Group - sold off ~ 13% today on release of trading update Now down at 54c, hard to believe this was a $2+ stock just last year - same store sales down 1% on pcp - GM% 54.2% vs 55% pcp - H2 FY26 EBIT estimate now down to $22m - $28m - $2m in restructuring costs to be incurred as part of a ‘cost out’ program (aka job cuts are coming) As I’ve said already, these trading updates particularly from discretionary retail will soon be the norm Aussie consumer is tapped out A lot of companies will also use a war in the Middle East as their excuse for not delivering results
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Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺
Tarric Brooker aka Avid Commentator 🇦🇺@AvidCommentator·
Amidst Chalmers push to place a minimum floor tax rate on trusts, I'm curious to see what reaction this prompts. Pretty much every self employed tradie I know runs their business through a trust, most of whom vote Labor. The LNP may gain some traction on this if pursued.
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@KantInEastt A more accurate estimate would be approximately 0.3% of the global economy.
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durackpl
durackpl@durackpl·
@JuliOnTwtr Isn’t it a bit early to panic? According to the EIA, total stocks (incl. SPR) were 1,707mb on Jan 2 vs 1,669mb in April — only ~2.2% lower over 3+ months. For context, they were even lower (~1,623mb) in Dec 2024.
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Julianne Geiger
Julianne Geiger@JuliOnTwtr·
API inventory Moves 04/28/2026 Crude -1.79 million (exp. +300,000) Gasoline -8.47 million Distillates -2.6 million Cushing -820,000 SPR -7.1 million #oott #crudeoil #api #gasoline
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Keşfet

@HarryFromSyd @ryu_tay @GeoffWilsonWAM @JEChalmers @AlboMP @TheKouk @ash948311 @bowtiedstocks