Eli Draluk

@Ross__Hendricks Just pointing out the context for the initial tweet.

@edraluk Net gains in the last year approaching zero

RIP to anyone celebrating the initially reported jobs numbers.. revisions continue a year-long theme of what can only be described as a bloodbath in the US labor market

@Merridew__ The same axios reporters that have been persistently wrong since October 7?

@Merridew__ Same logic as a momo trade.

@buccocapital @JaredSleeper Anthropic makes no progress saas down 5% too

@JaredSleeper You seem to be trying to use logic here. Let me explain what is going on Anthropic makes AI progress -> SaaS goes down 5% You're welcome

Wait, cybersecurity stocks are falling because of reports that Anthropic's new model is going to be so excellent on the attack side that Anthropic is briefing enterprises + giving them time to prepare? That's a cybersecurity tailwind, no?

AI has become the justification for every layoff. It's the perfect excuse card, but there is a lot of spin involved. Every layoff is some combo of the following five very different AI stories. 1. Nothing changed, we just realized we have too many people. We are going to blame AI, but we are bullshitting. This is the AI as an excuse; it was really sloppy hiring, and we are just blaming AI. (See Block) 2. Growth has gone away so now we have too many people. This may be because of AI if you are a SaaS company. All the customer love is now going to AI. But it's less AI as a productivity lift, and more about you just building a less ambitious growth company. (See Salesforce and most every SaaS company) 3. We spent our money on capex to build AI so now we can’t afford as many people. Management may say it’s about AI making us productive (4 below) but my gut is a lot of it is about Nvidia getting our money so now there is none for you. (See Meta and Oracle) 4 We are really using AI the way god intended us to. We don't need as many people. This is the ONLY version of the story that is actually about a productivity increase. It's real, it's happening, but I wonder if it is even the majority of the layoffs. (See some software engineering departments right now) @jasonlk raised a fifth reason that doesn't get talked about enough: we just have the wrong people. Maybe we don't need 20 engineers who all know C++, but rather eight who have strong AI skills. This I think should be happening everywhere. Every time a layoff announcement comes out, I try and mentally categorize per the above.

@HighyieldHarry I mean to be fair they actually net grew in size. They could have used more of that new money on old investors.

The world is ending because of private credit firms are enforcing their quarterly limits instead of mass selling unitranche debt below par. I think one of the takeaways out of this "credit cycle" is a decent amount of folks shouldn't hold private credit thru cycles.

@Altimor This is often used to denigrate high quality data to the advantage of shittier but volumetric data.

People are often surprised when they learn that the overall size of a population is immaterial to how many data points one needs to draw conclusions.

@Merridew__ Fuck

@mattyglesias @jasonfurman Prices are 150-170 in actual shortage areas. I would suspect that over time they converge higher if this doesn’t end fast.

Remember when oil topped $150/barrel in the wake of the 2011 Libya strikes? And stayed above that price for most of the next 2 yrs? OK, you may not remember because you probably weren't thinking about oil in 2026 prices back then. But if you were that's what you would have seen.

@boneysoups Apparently, much of the internet also struggles with the concept of characters not only saying or behaving in ways that the creator 100% agrees with.

a couple current discourses are making me think we just hate characters who aren’t obvious heroes/heroines. who make mistakes or fail to meet a moment. anyone who doesn’t behave with grace, conviction, and total consistency, we fuckin hate their guts

@conorsen @TheStalwart They as disrupters fail to learn the lessons of the past in finance. They’re also going up against extremely sharp highly paid sharks.

@TheStalwart The inability of tech/fintech/crypto to make inroads into finance is the most surprising thing to me, when on paper it seems like a natural industry to impact.

This is a compelling argument from Tim. @pmarca ended up being wrong about software eating the world. I’ve previously said on the podcast that Andreesen was vindicated, and this made me change my mind.

@Merridew__ As someone who is 6’3” I fully took advantage of this when I met my wife… but think it’s really fucked up (my dad also shorter than my mom).

@Merridew__ You’re not gonna like the fastest route here (right wing grifter).

@agranato42 @asymmetricinfo I think you can look to places like Korea to see what happens. (The extracurricular is all cram school)

An under-told story: the returns to the insane high school extracurricular arms race would diminish significantly if the SAT and ACT would make the test harder so that there wasn’t a giant blob of people with ~2400 or ~36 scores.

So Sally can wait?

@TexasOncologist Poll mix is pretty different now

Kind of shocked by this:

@Merridew__ I was in Bangalore last April… so I feel you

a company dies once the funny people leave

@growing_daniel A third of their revenue is bitcoin mining tho

What's remarkable is actually Block was highly efficient for its vertical. Somebody needs to acquire Paypal and fire 2/3 of it.