E J Servan-Schreiber

654 posts

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E J Servan-Schreiber

E J Servan-Schreiber

@emiless2012

Founder @hypermind_com - Prof @TheSchoolofCI Collective intelligence and prediction markets

Katılım Nisan 2012
112 Takip Edilen771 Takipçiler
E J Servan-Schreiber retweetledi
Hypermind
Hypermind@Hypermind_com·
Lend your brain to Ukraine! Glimt is a joint project of the Swedish and Ukrainian governments, powered by Hypermind, open to everyone. Perhaps the first use case of crowd forecasting as a weapon of war against evil. Join us here: glimt.nu/glimt/en/welco… @kikollan @NunoSempere @jorgebmontanes @PTetlock @robinhanson @JamesSurowiecki @JustinWolfers @IgnatiusPost @pennockd @DavMicRot @Scott_E_Page @page_eco @GlimtCommunity @FOIresearch
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Eddie
Eddie@Leucoium_vernum·
@robinhanson Sure but the reason to trust pollsters match up much better than the reasons to believe a random Frenchman has unique insights about the race. This is not to diss on random Frenchmen, I am a random Frenchman myself, but facts are facts.
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Robin Hanson
Robin Hanson@robinhanson·
"Betting platforms … have seen a spike in Mr. Trump’s favor over the past month — one that does not track with the overall state of the race as captured by reputable polling firms. That surge appears to have been pushed almost entirely by a very small number of high-value bets from just four accounts linked to a French national. … Mr. Trump and his allies, … have nonetheless promoted the betting markets — although they are opaque, largely unregulated and not a scientific way to gauge public polls." Uh, polls are ALSO opaque, unregulated, and not especially scientific. And ALSO greatly influenced by a few key players. nytimes.com/2024/10/31/us/…
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E J Servan-Schreiber
E J Servan-Schreiber@emiless2012·
Herding behavior or crowd wisdom? There is cognitive diversity in the sense that all these platforms operate quite differently (geography, demographics, rewards, etc.). Yet, they may not think really independently of each other (except 538).
Hypermind@Hypermind_com

It is remarkable that our prediction market is now (Oct 26) the only crowd-forecasting or statistical model that still gives Kamala Harris slightly more chances of winning (54%) than losing. All others are now favoring Trump more or less boldly.

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E J Servan-Schreiber
E J Servan-Schreiber@emiless2012·
In today's Wapo, @IgnatiusPost mentions an intelligence estimate that looks very much like an OVERestimate compared to the prediction market's at the time. Just one data point, of course, but it's so rare to be able to compare these things...
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E J Servan-Schreiber
E J Servan-Schreiber@emiless2012·
Voting for president in NY state isn’t super impactful, but it feels good anyway.
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E J Servan-Schreiber retweetledi
Hypermind
Hypermind@Hypermind_com·
The 2nd assassination attempt on #Trump has had no impact on his chances to win the election as estimated by our prediction market. This is in stark contrast to the uplift he got from the first attempt. #newnormal ?
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Pavel Atanasov
Pavel Atanasov@PavelDAtanasov·
What do you think is most likely about prediction markets' reactions to who "wins" the Debate?
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E J Servan-Schreiber
E J Servan-Schreiber@emiless2012·
@fadouce Les marchés prédictifs ont basculés en faveur de Harris depuis bien longtemps. @Hypermind_com depuis le 23 juillet, suivi de tous les autres une semaine plus tard. :)
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E J Servan-Schreiber
E J Servan-Schreiber@emiless2012·
I wish X would offer an "unserious" or "weird" feedback button in addition to "like".
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Dan Hendrycks
Dan Hendrycks@hendrycks·
We've created a demo of an AI that can predict the future at a superhuman level (on par with groups of human forecasters working together). Consequently I think AI forecasters will soon automate most prediction markets. demo: forecast.safe.ai blog: safe.ai/blog/forecasti…
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Keşfet

@Hypermind_com @gernelle @mathieulaine @sebastienlefol @guillaumeerner @kikollan @NunoSempere @jorgebmontanes