Austin

3.8K posts

Austin

Austin

@energy_tech_inv

Energy Infrastructure Entrepreneur | $LMND bull Measuring success in sunny days well spent.

Katılım Mayıs 2021
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
In a few years we’ll look back reminiscently at these “boring” times for $LMND and think how simple it was to just DCA while reading one encouraging report after another - all while approaching FCF+, lower loss ratios, higher IFP, stabilizing OPEX, and new geographies/products
Paper Bag Investor@PaperBagInvest

Remember when $LMND 🍋 was trading at $16 after 5x’ing its IFP since their IPO and being on a clear path to profitability? Yeah, I remember that. I bought more today ✅

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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
Another great $LMND quarter! I’m a happy longer term shareholder. At $56/Share and a $4.35B market cap, I believe I can purchase shares at less than half their 2026 fair value. After the Q4 2026 report, I got a conservative number of around $115 Haven’t done the math yet but after another 32% YoY growth (7.76% QoQ)…. with EBITDA losses narrowing and profitability about to inflect…. I’d have NPV/share a bit higher Customer Life Time Value (LTV) to Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) is still 3:1 despite a ramp in OpEx.
Austin@energy_tech_inv

At the November 2024 $LMND Investor Day, CFO Tim Bixby conceptualized an NPV per share of $90+ Using Tim's same mental model, based on 2026 estimates, we get an NPV of $115+ Buying shares in the $60s today is significantly less than the 2024 fair value per share and dramatically less than the 2026 fair value per share ✅ Napkin Math: FY25 GEP guidance is around $1.047B, and @PaperBagInvest estimates FY26 GEP to be around $1.380B (subscribe to his Patreon for full access to the model) So, take $1.38B grown at 31% and apply a 12% ratio of Ajd. EBITDA and we get...... GEP year 7 ≈ 1.38B×(1.31)^7 ≈ $9.2B Apply 12% Adj. EBITDA Margin, 9.18B×12% ≈ $1.10B Tim’s original $90+ implied something around a 15x multiple on EBITDA, please correct me if you think otherwise. Market cap 7 years out = 1.10B×15 = $16.5B Discount 7 years at 10% (might be too low of a rate) NPV ≈ $8.5B or $115–120/share Reminders: EBITDA is expected to flip positive this year. CAGR has been accelerating and management hints at growth in the low 30s not up to and stopping at 30%. This could mean anywhere between 31-33% IMO. At investor day, management said that if total earned premium doubles from $1B to $2B, cash flow - adjusted FCF - will 20x from $15M to $285M. That is EXTREME operating leverage. In fall 2022 LMND’s loss ratios were 94%. In fall 2024 they were 62%, while the trailing twelve months (“TTM”) loss ratio was 67%. Cash flow break even was originally guided for 2025. LMND achieved it a year ahead of schedule in 2024. FY 2024 was cashflow positive as a whole. IRR with synthetic agent funding is 112% Over the past few years, $LMND kept up with their guidance and even out performed their guidance despite a generational inflation bout that rocked the insurance industry.

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Gali
Gali@Gfilche·
For all the $LMND investors 🍋📊 My take on Q1: great numbers, long-term story evolving perfectly, Pet insurance now the #1 business Why the stock doesn't care? These results were baked in. @Lemonade_Inc chugs along at ~30% growth in it's core biz every quarter Lowkey boring. A great all-time business in the making, but insurance is not like AI coding, it's a slow and steady book of business build. Exponential growth won't happen I've been using Lemonade car insurance for 2 months now and loving it. That could be a huge business long-term I think 2027 is going to be a breakout year for profits and cashflow. Proving the durability and operating leverage of the business. Until then we build, brick by brick 🧱
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
Been enjoying the @ForwardGuidance podcast these last few months! The guys do a great job discussing their macro outlooks and the banter is always entertaining. @Tyler_Neville_ I’m so bearish I’m bullish.. Would for sure rep the “So bearish it’s bullish” shirt. Leaving a 5-star review. @fejau_inc @qthomp
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
This is so true… can totally relate Admittedly all I know are V-shaped recoveries.. Started investing during college in late 2019. Have been apart of some face-melting volatility in that time. Covid was a crazy one. But too quick to do any damage. 2022 felt like forever and I saw many investments languish and a few drop down 90-95% But I’ve never seen anything close to the GFC
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Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium@TravisHoium·
Random observation: Investors with the most strident belief the market is wrong about their favorite stock and they're right tend to be under 30. In completely unrelated news, this is what the stock market has done since today's 30 year old was 13.
Travis Hoium tweet media
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@longinvest32 Definitely glad to be a HIMS shareholder. Just as HIMS will be the telehealth juggernaut, Lemonade $LMND will be the insurtech juggernaut of the next 10-15 years IMHO
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matt
matt@longinvest32·
Will you buy $hims before the masses realize we are telehealth juggernaut
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@307Fool Beautiful! Looks like y’all are having a great time. Cheer’s from the opera tonight with my Mrs 🤗, Beethoven’s Fidelio
Austin tweet media
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matt
matt@longinvest32·
$HIMS everyone is bullish again
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
Feel you on this. Been enjoying a lot of analog world this month and haven’t really been on the app to much. but noticed that my largest position $LMND is up 32% just this week Crazily enough, my second largest stock position $HIMS is up 48% this week alone The only thing I added to in April was a touch of $HIMS a couple weeks ago. The Mrs and I have been directing most new cash towards a down payment savings.
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$307Fool (AKA Matt Hard)
$307Fool (AKA Matt Hard)@307Fool·
When your top holding is up 18% the last 10 days, it makes a big difference!! $NVDA
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@TravisHoium Awesome! I’ll have to check it out
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Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium@TravisHoium·
Timely episode today! $HIMS
Chit Chat Stocks@chitchatstocks

NEW PODCAST EPISODE! @TravisHoium returns to talk the opportunity in peptides and why $HIMS may be a massive winner (00:00) Introduction (01:56) Understanding Peptides (09:02) The Economic Impact of Peptides (11:19) Pharmaceutical Companies and Peptide Development (13:40) The Future of Personalized Medicine (16:59) Regulatory Landscape and Government Influence (22:16) Industries Affected by the Peptide Boom (26:59) The Incentive Structure of Healthcare (30:22) Disruption in the Healthcare Industry (32:19) The Hims and Hers Saga (38:24) Management and Future Opportunities (50:47) Asymmetric Investing Follow the Chit Chat Stocks Podcast on YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts

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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@qthomp Really enjoy you guys on the forward guidance podcast! Keep up the great work
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Quinn Thompson
Quinn Thompson@qthomp·
My portfolio is the simplest it has been in many weeks. I am long "the Strait is still not open" and short "weakening consumer and small businesses". I do not wish for policymakers to put us in this situation, but it is the situation I see. Come join us in the chat.
Quinn Thompson tweet media
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@longinvest32 Oooof, sorry brotha. My only advice is to side with your wife United for eternity🙏🏽
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matt
matt@longinvest32·
Guys any advice my wife and sister fighting really don’t get along Damn $spy $nbis
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@StonkChris It is not to late to go back to the ‘all-in’ LMND move
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Chris
Chris@StonkChris·
Bruh…is this guy actually serious right now?! 😭
Chris tweet media
Jake Browatzke 🚀@jakebrowatzke

The Better Portfolio Update 🚀 For six months, I've told you $PATH is the best opportunity I can find. I still believe that thesis — nothing about UiPath has changed, and I still expect it to 10x within five years. What changed is I found something better. $BETR — Better.com — is going to compound topline revenue at 50%+ per year for the next several years, and it's priced like a company growing at a fraction of that. If rate cuts accelerate, we could see 100%+ annualized growth. I expect $BETR to 20x within five years. I highly recommend reading my recent post about the company and watching our latest video. So why not own both heavily? I would if I could. Here's the problem: despite running a leveraged strategy for seven years — $20k to $1.6M in $TSLA at 300% leverage, riding $5M to $10M and back in $PATH without a phone call — Interactive Brokers effectively allows 0% margin on $BETR. It's a $700M company with limited daily volume, and IBKR's risk engine won't extend leverage on it. My solution: I moved ~89% of my net liquidity into $BETR and spread my margin across a broad basket of 30+ other names. IBKR's portfolio margin system requires that no single position outside of BETR exceeds ~10% of net liquidity when Better dominates ~90% the portfolio like this. If I could leverage $BETR freely, I'd still be 100% net liquidity in $PATH and 150% in $BETR, with the rest split among my top favorites. But I can't, so the broad basket is how I keep my margin working instead of sitting idle. That breadth comes with a tradeoff I want to be upfront about. When you hold your top three or five ideas, it's possible every one of them works. When you hold 30+, some of them will be duds — that's just math. Even Peter Lynch said four out of ten won't go as planned. But I believe deploying margin this way will add far more to my returns than leaving it unused. My portfolio as of 4/7/26: Core position (89% of net liquidity) $BETR — $1.8M @ $33.85 avg Top conviction (each ~9% of net liquidity) — $1.3M total across all $PATH $HIMS $ZETA $DOUL $FOUR $KLAR $LMND Remaining broad basket — $2.7M total across all $IBKR $NKE $UPST $MELI $MU $SMCI $CAKE $AMZN $COIN $SKM $CELH $DLO $TSLA $HOOD $GLBE $GT $ELF $AMD $WHR $ROOT $FLY $CRM $NVDA $MNDY $FUBO $BMNR $MSTR $META $MIAX $WEN $TEAM $FVRR To be clear about what happened here: I didn't lose conviction in UiPath in the same way I didn't lose conviction in Lemonade when I started buying UiPath originally, or stop loving Tesla when I bought heavily into Lemonade. I found a situation where the math on the upside is roughly double over the same timeframe. If your current best idea is a 10x in five years and you find a 20x in five years, you move heavier into the better opportunity. That's not giving up on a thesis — that's doing exactly what the thesis framework is supposed to do. For context on the strategy overall: I'm up over 300% in the past 12 months and have averaged nearly 100% annualized time-weighted returns over seven years. I'm also down 73% YTD. Both of those things are true simultaneously, and that's what leveraged concentration looks like. A sub-20% market pullback could easily cut my portfolio in half. This is shared for entertainment and educational purposes only. I'm not a financial advisor. I do not recommend using margin. I'm learning, experimenting, and sharing in real time. Thanks for reading.

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Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium@TravisHoium·
$HIMS "Peptides aren't FDA approved, so they're unsafe." Did you know, Ozempic is NOT FDA APPROVED for weight loss?
GIF
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@longinvest32 Competition: Hundreds of nimble start ups fetching high valuations and raising ample cash, best-in-class peers such as Ro, formidable incumbents such as Amazon and Walmart
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matt
matt@longinvest32·
Seriously give me the bear case for $hims
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
He is risen indeed Sunrise, sun drench, sun set
Austin tweet mediaAustin tweet mediaAustin tweet media
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@jakebrowatzke I still think $LMND is the best investment out of the companies you’ve covered / invested in over the last year or so. It is ready for prime time as we hit the profitability inflection between now and 2030
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Jake Browatzke 🚀
Jake Browatzke 🚀@jakebrowatzke·
On this account, I try to be raw and honest — which, frankly, isn't the best way to grow a large audience. I'm often wrong on timing or even the thesis itself. But here's my promise: when the facts change, my views change. I don't find facts to fit my narrative. I share my updated opinions, even when they're unpopular. My views on $PATH haven't changed. I still believe Maestro can scale to $1B ARR within five years, drive pull-through to UiPath's traditional business, and — combined with three years of flat opex from dogfooding their own automation — create a massive profitability explosion as revenue scales with leverage. Yes, AI has brought far more competitors into automation. That's a real risk. But UiPath has 10x'd the value of their product, and I strongly believe they'll grow because of AI, even while losing meaningful market share. I'm still bullish on UiPath. It's a 10x in five years in my base case. But after a week and a half of research, Better.com $BETR is a 20x — twice as good as $PATH on forward returns, both with high confidence. Thus my highest conviction pick has changed. As unpopular as it may be, its the truth. My conviction stack right now: 🥇 $BETR — 20x in 5 years 🥈 $PATH — 10x Then a tight pack: $HIMS, $DUOL, $LMND, $KLAR, $FOUR, $ZETA, $ROOT — all clustered between 10x and 7.5x, outstanding expected forward returns. Why Better? They've radically cut loan origination costs and built a single unified platform replacing 8+ fragmented systems. They're now selling it B2B — Credit Karma offers loans powered by Better. Coinbase offers bitcoin-backed loans powered by Better. Now 2 of the 3 biggest banks have literally reached out to Better and asked for product demos. It's a rapidly expanding B2B automated mortgage platform alongside a growing B2C business. Think Lemonade, but if they were also licensing their autonomous insurance platform to Geico. And it's only a $600M company. When rates were near zero in 2020, Better was doing ~$50M/month in profit. Today it trades at roughly 1x that peak monthly profit. The refi TAM shrank 90%+ when rates spiked. They’re now set up to grow revenue 50-70%+ per year for the next three to five years. They have a clean balance sheet, but are guiding to lose money for two more quarters before reaching profitability in Q3. If rates get cut meaningfully? This thing could easily 5x in a single year. But they only trade 2.8x sales today so even at 50-60-70% annual growth over five years, the math is staggering. I see insane asymmetry. What do you think? I actually love to hear from people as they do their own research, the biggest risks that they have uncovered or things that they have questions about. As when I am helping answer your questions, I will likely grow my own understanding as well.
Jake Browatzke 🚀 tweet media
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Austin
Austin@energy_tech_inv·
@TravisHoium Great thoughts.. What a time to be investing.. quick sand and landmines everywhere simultaneously paired with accelerating pathways, use cases, and TAM expansion..
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Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium@TravisHoium·
@energy_tech_inv Agreed. Wouldn't be surprised if they turn on some new products and high volume marketing in a hurry if peptides are reclassified.
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Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium@TravisHoium·
Isn't this the kind of business the FDA just destroyed by cracking down on grey market ,Chinese GLP-1s? $HIMS makes a deal with Novo ahead of the GLP-1 crackdown, buys compounding pharmacies, and a peptide facility, and people say, "Yeah, but one guy built a more profitable business." But is that business sustainable? How much revenue will they do in June 2026? I bet less than a $1.8 billion run rate.
nic carter@nic_carter

first vibecoded billion-dollar company?

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