
Remember when $LMND 🍋 was trading at $16 after 5x’ing its IFP since their IPO and being on a clear path to profitability? Yeah, I remember that. I bought more today ✅
Austin
3.8K posts

@energy_tech_inv
Energy Infrastructure Entrepreneur | $LMND bull Measuring success in sunny days well spent.

Remember when $LMND 🍋 was trading at $16 after 5x’ing its IFP since their IPO and being on a clear path to profitability? Yeah, I remember that. I bought more today ✅

At the November 2024 $LMND Investor Day, CFO Tim Bixby conceptualized an NPV per share of $90+ Using Tim's same mental model, based on 2026 estimates, we get an NPV of $115+ Buying shares in the $60s today is significantly less than the 2024 fair value per share and dramatically less than the 2026 fair value per share ✅ Napkin Math: FY25 GEP guidance is around $1.047B, and @PaperBagInvest estimates FY26 GEP to be around $1.380B (subscribe to his Patreon for full access to the model) So, take $1.38B grown at 31% and apply a 12% ratio of Ajd. EBITDA and we get...... GEP year 7 ≈ 1.38B×(1.31)^7 ≈ $9.2B Apply 12% Adj. EBITDA Margin, 9.18B×12% ≈ $1.10B Tim’s original $90+ implied something around a 15x multiple on EBITDA, please correct me if you think otherwise. Market cap 7 years out = 1.10B×15 = $16.5B Discount 7 years at 10% (might be too low of a rate) NPV ≈ $8.5B or $115–120/share Reminders: EBITDA is expected to flip positive this year. CAGR has been accelerating and management hints at growth in the low 30s not up to and stopping at 30%. This could mean anywhere between 31-33% IMO. At investor day, management said that if total earned premium doubles from $1B to $2B, cash flow - adjusted FCF - will 20x from $15M to $285M. That is EXTREME operating leverage. In fall 2022 LMND’s loss ratios were 94%. In fall 2024 they were 62%, while the trailing twelve months (“TTM”) loss ratio was 67%. Cash flow break even was originally guided for 2025. LMND achieved it a year ahead of schedule in 2024. FY 2024 was cashflow positive as a whole. IRR with synthetic agent funding is 112% Over the past few years, $LMND kept up with their guidance and even out performed their guidance despite a generational inflation bout that rocked the insurance industry.







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Per The Information, OpenAI forecasts $100BN in advertising revenue by 2030.




The Better Portfolio Update 🚀 For six months, I've told you $PATH is the best opportunity I can find. I still believe that thesis — nothing about UiPath has changed, and I still expect it to 10x within five years. What changed is I found something better. $BETR — Better.com — is going to compound topline revenue at 50%+ per year for the next several years, and it's priced like a company growing at a fraction of that. If rate cuts accelerate, we could see 100%+ annualized growth. I expect $BETR to 20x within five years. I highly recommend reading my recent post about the company and watching our latest video. So why not own both heavily? I would if I could. Here's the problem: despite running a leveraged strategy for seven years — $20k to $1.6M in $TSLA at 300% leverage, riding $5M to $10M and back in $PATH without a phone call — Interactive Brokers effectively allows 0% margin on $BETR. It's a $700M company with limited daily volume, and IBKR's risk engine won't extend leverage on it. My solution: I moved ~89% of my net liquidity into $BETR and spread my margin across a broad basket of 30+ other names. IBKR's portfolio margin system requires that no single position outside of BETR exceeds ~10% of net liquidity when Better dominates ~90% the portfolio like this. If I could leverage $BETR freely, I'd still be 100% net liquidity in $PATH and 150% in $BETR, with the rest split among my top favorites. But I can't, so the broad basket is how I keep my margin working instead of sitting idle. That breadth comes with a tradeoff I want to be upfront about. When you hold your top three or five ideas, it's possible every one of them works. When you hold 30+, some of them will be duds — that's just math. Even Peter Lynch said four out of ten won't go as planned. But I believe deploying margin this way will add far more to my returns than leaving it unused. My portfolio as of 4/7/26: Core position (89% of net liquidity) $BETR — $1.8M @ $33.85 avg Top conviction (each ~9% of net liquidity) — $1.3M total across all $PATH $HIMS $ZETA $DOUL $FOUR $KLAR $LMND Remaining broad basket — $2.7M total across all $IBKR $NKE $UPST $MELI $MU $SMCI $CAKE $AMZN $COIN $SKM $CELH $DLO $TSLA $HOOD $GLBE $GT $ELF $AMD $WHR $ROOT $FLY $CRM $NVDA $MNDY $FUBO $BMNR $MSTR $META $MIAX $WEN $TEAM $FVRR To be clear about what happened here: I didn't lose conviction in UiPath in the same way I didn't lose conviction in Lemonade when I started buying UiPath originally, or stop loving Tesla when I bought heavily into Lemonade. I found a situation where the math on the upside is roughly double over the same timeframe. If your current best idea is a 10x in five years and you find a 20x in five years, you move heavier into the better opportunity. That's not giving up on a thesis — that's doing exactly what the thesis framework is supposed to do. For context on the strategy overall: I'm up over 300% in the past 12 months and have averaged nearly 100% annualized time-weighted returns over seven years. I'm also down 73% YTD. Both of those things are true simultaneously, and that's what leveraged concentration looks like. A sub-20% market pullback could easily cut my portfolio in half. This is shared for entertainment and educational purposes only. I'm not a financial advisor. I do not recommend using margin. I'm learning, experimenting, and sharing in real time. Thanks for reading.








first vibecoded billion-dollar company?