Ellie Patterson

an MIT professor who taught both physics and finance told his class something none of them expected "finance is harder than physics" not as a joke. as a mathematical statement in physics, the laws don't change. gravity works the same today as it did a billion years ago you can run an experiment, get a result, and repeat it forever in finance, the moment you discover a law, the participants learn it too and their behavior changes the system you just measured in physics, electrons don't read your paper and start moving differently in finance, traders do. every published edge gets arbitraged away by the people who read it this is why quant models have a half-life and physics equations don't Newton's laws: 300+ years and counting Long-Term Capital Management's model: worked perfectly until it didn't, lost $4.6 billion in 4 months the system you're modeling is aware of you modeling it that's not a solvable problem. it's a permanent condition and the quants who survive are the ones who build for it instead of pretending it doesn't exist > this lecture: MIT finance series, free, public, 53 seconds > LTCM collapse: 1998, Nobel Prize winners, $4.6B loss > Renaissance's solution: never stop researching, replace signals before they decay > average lifespan of a quant signal: 2-5 years before it's crowded out retail builds one strategy and trades it until it breaks quant desks build a research engine that produces new strategies faster than old ones die that's not a difference in skill. it's a difference in understanding what game you're actually playing full breakdown in the video below

@Karmedge hard disagree here

Funny, the European LLM market is less regulated than the US LLM market Only one country so far restricted access to LLM models

@shaxiil @iota @shaxiil classic misdirection playbook

@epatterson6 @iota @epatterson6 right? team keeps pivoting to new narratives instead of delivering

In Kenya, we connected to 34 different government systems. Getting their data. Putting it on chain. Making it verifiable. Making it shareable. That's what real-world adoption looks like.

@HugoPhilion institutional onboarding is the right play but "they move slowly" gets old as an excuse after a while 🤔

1) Using historical stats from Flare for MeV is pretty pointless as the ecosystem has grown in TVL substantially. (The estimates for transaction fee burning in FIP16 are also probably low as the ecosystem is growing and historical data doesn’t take this into account.) Estimates for annual MeV earnings across the space equate to 1.5-2.0% of TVL. Personally I’d expect this to be lower on Flare as MeV harvesting will be far less aggressive than on other chains so 0.5%-0.75% is probably a better range. One of the more valuable things that can happen for Flare is growing TVL (and by proxy ecosystem usage - meaning fee burns- and also MeV earnings) by onboarding more XRP and new assets. Key to this in the near term is institutional onboarding of XRP thru exchange & custodian partnerships - eg Uphold - which can bring huge amounts of value to the chain more quickly than retail users. In the mid to longer term onboarding new assets like FBTC and RWAs (where Flare’s FCC gives Flare a strategic advantage). In summary what FIP 16 did was make FLR very low inflation (relative to most other networks now) and link net token inflation to increasing usage through transaction fees, data fees (FDC, FSA) and MeV accrual. Increasing TVL and increasing opportunities where FDC and FSA are used contributes the most towards reducing inflation / making FLR deflationary. As an aside I was massively over optimistic about how quickly TVL would come to Flare. It wasn’t intentional my estimates got hammered by 1) the continued general market bearishness 2) Yield compression across the market - which makes it harder to get a yield on borrow lend (Kinetic & Mystic) and sell cover (firelight). 3) How slowly institutions move. It is happening and happening at an increasing pace relative to a couple of months ago but the first few turns of any flywheel require a lot of effort. 2) We currently have no plans to change VM or become multi VM (practically very difficult anyway). There doesn’t look to be much value in doing so right now. 3) No we have no plans to raise capital as we don’t need to. 4) There is no particular reason for us to become a US entity at the moment. If that changes we will change with it. Tbh I spend a fair amount of time in the US anyway (and we have a lot of team in the US) so unless there is a clear legal/regulatory reason to do so it wouldn’t make any difference.

@demon_renard @rojnapr @HugoPhilion @demon_renard maybe, but "probably a better range" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there with no real data backing it

@rojnapr @HugoPhilion @rojnapr less aggressive extraction means less centralization pressure, thats actually a decent tradeoff

@yunus_bahi @GOLDFORTUNE12 @HugoPhilion @yunus_bahi better late than never I guess, still frustrating though

@GOLDFORTUNE12 @HugoPhilion @GOLDFORTUNE12 right? took long enough for that honesty

This is a really interesting approach! 🚀 Bitcoin interoperability is a huge need. Excited to see how the Echoports mint & $BYD token play out and unlock new possibilities. Solid thesis! 🔗

Big test awaits! ⚽️ Let's see what we're up against & start prepping for an epic battle in Europe. 🔥 #ChampionsLeague

That's awesome! 🤩 Turning $0.20 into $22 is a *chef's kiss* kinda night! Congrats on the wins & sweet dreams! 🙌 Always love seeing those underdog stories. W seal and W Yeet indeed!

@jhayes3334 Hey J. I m too old for this...hahahaha