Steve Wallace
358 posts
Who’s your absolute favorite guitarist of all time?
Past or present, just one.
The one whose sound you recognize immediately, no guessing.
That’s the line between great and unforgettable.
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A new skill from our home humanoid robot (Unitree G1).
Still a ways to go before we can download the "plumber" software update.
And an even longer way before we let her near a scalpel—or a patient.
But as they say about AI: this is the worst it will ever be, and the progress is accelerating.
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While I don't know what a "rough swag" is, I agree with Kevin Warsh's sentiment expressed in this passage. Its 2026. We don't have to arbitrarily ex out anything. We can, in any month, focus in on core items to determine an underlying inflation rate excluding any item that fluctuates wildly.
As Warsh alludes to, the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean (which is at 2.3%), Cleveland's Median CPI (2.7%) or Atlanta's Sticky CPI (3.0%) are all "better" measures of inflation.
For years and years, the Fed has opened itself up to snarky criticism for excluding these two categories. "Sure, there's no inflation if you don't eat or drive" say many. Shifting the focus, even partially, to any the three aforementioned items would be a welcome change.
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@patrickmadrid @JamesDitto12 @Silentgunner543 @l_vliet72077 @MrCasey62 If Mary had other sons, why would Jesus ask John to take care of her from the cross? Major insult brewing there...
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LOL. Interesting theory. Too bad it’s false.
If there were “zero tradition” before Jerome that Jesus had no siblings/brothers born of the Virgin Mary, why would he appeal specifically to patristic Tradition in Against Helvidius as part of his biblical and historical defense of her perpetual virginity, something which even Luther and Calvin both affirmed?
It’s as if Jerome wrote these words in direct response to your own ignorance of patristic testimony,
@JamesDitto12:
“But as regards Victorinus, I assert what has already been proved from the Gospel—that he spoke of the brethren of the Lord not as being sons of Mary, but brethren in the sense I have explained, that is to say, brethren in point of kinship not by nature. . . .
“Might I not array against you the whole series of ancient writers? Ignatius, Polycarp, Irenæus, Justin Martyr, and many other apostolic and eloquent men, who against Ebion, Theodotus of Byzantium, and Valentinus, held these same views, and wrote volumes replete with wisdom. If you had ever read what they wrote, you would be a wiser man.”
ccel.org/ccel/schaff/np…
Next time, study first before attacking something which you clearly do not understand.
@MrCasey62
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The Bible—read properly—proves Catholicism.
That’s why the Catholic Church from the start read the Bible at every Mass, taught it in schools, and yes, translated it into the common languages—by order of the Pope.
@patrickmadrid lays it all out here:
patrickmadrid.substack.com/p/the-myth-tha…
Danny@Truth_matters20
The Bible exposes Catholicism. That's why the Roman Catholic Church didn't want the laymen getting their hands on it and reading it for themselves.
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@CliffordAsness His two main points seem to be:
We all hate Trump together, right?
And
Sacramento is full of idiots, they need me to fix things up.
But of course Sacramento is full of progressive Democrats already! How is one more going to fix anything?
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The new Tom Steyer has moved on from elitist environmentalism to omnicause leftist populism, with a particular focus on bashing corporations and Jews. Not surprisingly, this version is gaining more traction with primary voters. Pathetic creature.
Tom Steyer@TomSteyer
AIPAC is a dark money organization that should have no place in our politics.
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@EnergyAbsurdity Well, they already clipped the, er, wings of their king...
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Make it make sense: Leftists in London are staging a big protest march in support of the U.S. left's "No Kings" rallies taking place today.
But here's the obvi thing: England has a king. The U.S. does not have a king.
Make it make sense. Help a bruthah out.
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@DanielJHannan Thank God for the UK. Otherwise I would think I was in the worst (formerly decent) place on earth. "Stuck in California"
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One of the hereditary peers being kicked out by Labour, in flagrant defiance of the bargain it made in 1998, is the Earl of Leicester. He just raised a question about the proposed ban on trail hunting, which will waste parliamentary time and police resources to no purpose whatever.
His question was thoughtful, measured and informed, and Labour peers began to interrupt him, claiming that he was talking for too long. He politely responded that, as this was his first and last oral question in the chamber, he intended to ask it properly.
He is one of the 92 diligent and service-driven peers being thanklessly and gracelessly removed to make room for more placemen. It is perhaps especially poignant in his case as an earlier Earl of Leicester was Simon de Montfort, who called the first English Parliament, and whose image adorns the US Congress; and also because he is descended from Sir Edward Coke, the Elizabethan and Jacobean jurist who, as much as anyone, encoded our modern understanding of parliamentary supremacy and freedom under the law.
This is what snapping the thread of history looks like.
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@RichB118 Outstanding series of series. I just discovered you, thankfully for my ego, just a year after I figured out some of the general themes and some strategies for myself ;=]
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The Science Finally Caught Up
In 1987, the idea that markets were complex adaptive systems was considered fringe.
In 2026, it is the theoretical foundation of the most enduring strategy in systematic trading.
Article 8 closes the Out of Equilibrium series by translating thirty-eight years of Santa Fe science into eight principles for practitioners: why the market is an ecology and not a machine, why fat tails are structural and not rare, why simple rules outperform complex models in non-stationary environments, and why the programme is the strategy, not the person running it.
What does that mean for trend following?
If markets never reach equilibrium, trends are not anomalies to be arbitraged away. They are the system's normal output. The crowding of predictions creates instability. The instability releases energy. The energy takes the form of a directional move. Trend following is the strategy structurally designed to harvest that energy, across every market, every boundary, every cycle.
The equilibrium framework said this should not work. The complexity framework explains exactly why it does.
The final piece is live: atstradingsolutions.com/out-of-equilib…
#TrendFollowing #SystematicTrading #ComplexityEconomics #OutlierHunter
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt @lady_valor_07 They tell me I was a teen in the 60s, in berzerkely. I was stoned and I missed it, oh well.
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@lady_valor_07 first thought, Im already sick of AI generated pictures. second thought, I wish i was a teen in the 60's
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@Paper_Blossoms @libsoftiktok Only if you are wearing a dress!
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@libsoftiktok So if we all go and steal some TVs or new cars, we can just say it's an act of protest against capitalism, and it will be fine?
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UNREAL. The Washington State Supreme Court ruled that Lucy Lauser, a transgender Stevenson City Council Member who faced a recall petition after being ARRESTED for indecent exposure, will NOT be removed from his city position
Chief Justice Charles W. Johnson wrote, referring to Lauser with using "She/Her" pronouns, that “She (Lauser) did not believe her exposure violated the law because it was an act of protest."
Woke judge referring to a MAN as a WOMAN. The court is compromised.
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@RussLatino @HarleyShah She's too well spoken to be a moron. Plain liar is sufficient in this case.
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Iran has not attacked a country unprovoked in it's 5000 year old history. Israel has attacked six in one year. Who is the threat here?
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@rf121rf @_The_Prophet__ Had the UN ever stopped anybody? Based on history I would not want to attack Japan under any circumstances!
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@_The_Prophet__ The UN Charter allows for any country to attack one of the original belligerents of WWII if they make moves towards rearming.
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⚡️Japan just crossed a line it’s been tiptoeing for 70 years.
All at once.
This was the last major power still operating under an externally imposed security architecture. That architecture is now cracked open. The doctrine of pacifism is being dismantled through legislative leverage, not slow cultural drift.
The military industrial base is being reawakened under the pretext of deterrence. The constitutional constraints are being softened by political mandate. The taboo on weapons exports is being erased by urgency narratives. The line between defense and projection is being blurred with bureaucratic revisions.
This is state-level metamorphosis.
The language is calibrated. The alliances are locked. The industrial reshoring is already underway. This is Japan securing its seat at the table of post-American multipolar order.
Markets are signaling understanding. Stocks bid. Yen weakens. Bonds repriced.These are recalibrations to power.
Sanae Takaichi is a vessel for restoration. Not restoration of empire. Restoration of sovereign volition. Japan is done being the dependent appendage of someone else’s defense guarantee.
The old Japan was a model of restraint because it was designed that way. The new Japan is a model of alignment because it has chosen it.
China knows what this means. Korea knows what this means. The Pentagon knows what this means. Putin will understand it soon. Taiwan is already adjusting.
This is about re-entering history as a full actor.
The mask of pacifism is off.
The face beneath is steel.
Visegrád 24@visegrad24
BREAKING: Japanese PM Takaichi secures supermajority in the Lower House, winning at least 316 seats of 465, well above the 2/3 threshold (310 seats) needed A supermajority allows her to overrider rejections of bills in the Upper House, making it possible to push through her program to strengthen the country’s military capabilities and hawkish security stance amid escalating tensions with China. She recently fast-tracked increases in military spending (accelerated to 2% of GDP ahead of schedule) and there are now further hikes planned. She will bolster offensive capabilities with new missiles, drones and other extended-range warfare assets. The supermajority will also make it possible for her to carry out her campaign promises of establishing a National Intelligence Agency and enacting anti-espionage and foreign agents registration laws to enhance intelligence and counter foreign interference. During the campaign, Takaichi explicitly advocated abolishing or revising Article 9 of the Constitution to recognize the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) more fully, moving away from their strictly defensive character. If she secures a supermajority in the next Upper House election (2028) as well, Takaichi will be able to hold a referendum on the first-ever revision to the postwar pacifist Constitution. Additionally, with the supermajority's momentum, Takaichi can now advance relaxation of weapons export restrictions (via guideline revisions and legislation), abolishing remaining limits on defense equipment transfers. This shift, building on prior policy changes, will expand Japan's defense industry and could also allow exports of lethal weapons to countries at war. Such a change of course could benefit Ukraine, as it suffers from bottlenecks in Western production capabilities for advanced weapon systems. Takaichi’s massive win today puts Japan on a path of transforming its military into a force capable of defending itself from Chinese aggression and threats, while also allowing its defense industry to expand to expand and potentially provide Ukraine with much needed weapons in a scenario where Putin refuses to end the war through a negotiated settlement. 🇯🇵
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@clankeruser @elonmusk Underground. Turn abandoned mine shafts into habitats? Or just set a boring machine loose.
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@elonmusk I don't see how the moon would be a desirable place to live nor how you would even make it safe to live long term.
Is there a manufacturing/scientific reason for the colonization or just to have a city? The latter would make more sense given the negatives of living on the moon.
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For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.
The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars.
It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.
That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.
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And she had a PhD in Chemistry.
I'm guessing she must have skipped a lot of classes.
😉
Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH
Full circle Merkel & the Greens killed cheap, reliable nuclear, paid hundreds of billions to depend on French nuclear power, still plan to spend hundreds of billions more to finally relearn basic physics and likely return to nuclear eventually.
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@ErikSTownsend I try to be a long term trend follower. On my gold and silver monthly charts, January was a very good month. Nothing has really changed except some speculators got gamed by the big boys.
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It should come as no surprise that $GC_F (Gold futures) sold off hard on Sunday evening's open, re-testing Friday's intra-day lows within the first half-hour of trading.
At Friday's close the market was still discounting a distinct possibility of a U.S. strike on Iran. That not only didn't happen, but @POTUS is now signalling an intention to negotiate and avoid escalation, further reducing the geopolitical risk premium.
As I type this at 6:35pm Sunday evening, the market has yet to print a new intra-day low below Friday's intra-day low around $4,700. I think a further sell off to close the Jan. 18 opening gap is entirely possible if not likely before this correction is over, implying a test of the low $4600's, or fully $1,000 below the intraday high above $5,600 (april contract) late wednesday evening.
Times like there are when traders need to remember the whole name of the game is to "buy low, and sell high". $5,600 (april contract) was "high", and if you were lucky enough to time a sell then, congratulations!
The right way to interpret a price a thousand dollars lower than it was half a week ago is buy the bargain dip, not sell out of fear that the sky is falling. The fundamentals have not changed. The market was badly overbought, and the Warsh nomination was the catalyst needed to bring on an overdue correction. (And by the way, I warned that correction was likely when I recorded last week's @MacroVoices, but sadly the correction was already well underway by the time that episode aired).
I don't have a crystal ball, and I don't know where this easy-to-see-coming correction will bottom. But I'm confident we're already much closer to the bottom than we are to the Wednesday night's top, and a gap-fill at $4610 or so (april contract) looks like a screaming buy to me. Unless the fundamentals change, which they haven't yet.
Erik Townsend 🛢️@ErikSTownsend
Yes, this was a painful day for precious metals investors, myself included. But let's keep this in perspective! As of 4pm, Gold was trading at a HIGHER price than it had EVER traded in ALL TIME, as of just ONE WEEK ago. Yes, the hyperbolic move ~$600 higher in a single week blew off and fully retraced. But we're still better off than we were a week ago. I warned @MacroVoices listeners over a week ago that a really painful correction was likely coming. I tried to re-warn you on this week's podcast, which was recorded when April gold futs were still trading over $5,600. But sadly, gold prices crashed fully $500 lower (as I predicted the prior week) by the time that episode was released just a few hours later. I tried my best! And BTW, we STILL haven't filled the Jan. 18th ~$23-wide price gap at $4,600, so the pain might not yet be over. Today's "reversal candle" is definitely a bearish short-term signal. The question now is now long before Chinese buyers step in to buy the dip. Time will tell. $GC_F The long-term fundamentals are still good, but the appointment of a far more hawkish Fed chair than anyone expected (assuming Warsh is confirmed) definitely takes SOME of the bullish arguments off the table. So it's unlikely we'll see new ATH for weeks to months.
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@moneytalkstweet I'm a long-term speculator with monthly charts. Silver gave me a nice gain in January. What's everybody's problem?
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Perspective on Silver and Gold Decline
Friday's 26% drop in silver takes the price back to January 12th while the 9% fall in the gold price brings it back to a week ago Thursday, January 22nd.
#Silver #GoldPrice
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@Ole_S_Hansen @28wealth The big question is, will that down day be a get-out signal or a stock-up signal?
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@28wealth we are most likely going to see a 25-dollar down day sooner rather than later, but will the starting point be from 110, 130 or 150? No one knows..
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#Silver positioning on COMEX: As highlighted in recent updates, the greatest short-covering risk in COMEX silver futures has not come from banks — which typically hold offsetting long positions against their shorts — but from producers. Surging prices and volatility have forced producers to reduce hedge positions amid increasingly punitive margin calls.
In week to 20 January the breakdown was as follows:
Producer/Merchants: +5,762 to -20,218 contracts
Swap Dealers: +2,716 to -25,309
Managed Money and Other Reportables: -6,000 to +24,615
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@adamtaggart I have an idea. Tell all the idiots to put aside their TDS, read Art of the Deal, and THINK for two minutes! Just copy and paste, it will save you a lot of time.
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Well, I'm taking a lot of heat (again) for the post below
For the record, I'm not arguing for or against what's going on in Greenland. This was not a pro-Trump or anti-Trump post.
I'm just trying to help people understand how mercantilism works, now that the US (as well as the rest of the world) has shifted back to it
In the global Game of Thrones, the strongest player (if it can) forces the rest to 'bend the knee'
You don't have to like it. But if you deny it, you're using the wrong playbook.
Adam Taggart@adamtaggart
Here's some perspective to keep in mind re: Greenland Geopolitics has and always will be a Game of Thrones Each player will act to maximize its self interests In past centuries, that has often been through bloodshed & cruelty In recent decades, many misinterpreted the era of globalization as a sign we'd evolved past those brutish means But in many ways, globalization was a deceptive smokescreen for powerful players to get the benefits they wanted without alarming the masses Now globalization is over and the tactics are returning to being more overt As regards Greenland, you may not like that Trump is being heavy-handed But IMO, he is being so deliberately, putting the fear of forceful takeover into his opponents minds, so that they will come to the table and struck a deal - thus getting what he wants without bloodshed & perhaps with the most fairness possible given the situation Again, you don't have to like it. I'm just encouraging you to understand it. If indeed Trump has determined that Greenland is essential to America's security, then make no mistake: America could take Greenland with force tonight, and it would be over in about the same number of minutes (or less) it took to capture Maduro There's really nothing the rest of the world could do about it. And despite the loud blowback that would follow, there's very little it could do besides eventually accept it. But IMO, and I certainly may be wrong, Trump is trying to avoid that outcome and give Denmark/Greenlanders fair (as he defines it) compensation for the trade And it may not be full annexation (though I think that's his preference). It could be 100-year agreements for as many military bases as the US wants to put there. And maybe mining rights, too. So, yes, this may be America being a "bully". But based on it's current apex seat in the global Game of Thrones, it could be a heck of a meaner one than it's currently being...
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@Dr_TheHistories Actually, a lot of it was anti catholic propaganda.
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Many of us learned in school that Christopher Columbus sailed to prove the Earth was round. But this story is a historical myth, invented almost 350 years after his voyage.
The tale was created by the American author Washington Irving in his 1828 biography, 'The Life and Voyages of Christopher Columbus'.
Irving wanted to write a more dramatic and engaging story. So he added a fictional conflict where Columbus, a man of science and reason, had to argue against ignorant church officials who supposedly believed in a flat Earth.
In reality, educated people in Europe had known the Earth was a sphere since at least 600 BC. The ancient Greeks, like Pythagoras and Aristotle, had already provided evidence for a round Earth.
By the time Columbus set sail in 1492, the idea of a spherical Earth was common knowledge among scholars and sailors. There was no widespread belief in a flat Earth for him to disprove.
The real debate Columbus faced was not about the Earth's shape, but its size. He incorrectly believed the planet was much smaller than it actually is, which is why he thought he could reach Asia by sailing west from Europe.
Irving's heroic, but false, narrative was so compelling that it quickly made its way into textbooks and popular culture.
For nearly two centuries, this myth has shaped how people view both Columbus and the scientific knowledge of the Middle Ages.
#drthehistories
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A layman can assume a government falls when the economy crashes — when money becomes worthless, banks fail, or prices skyrocket.
But history shows something else: a regime’s security forces quitting on it is the real breaking point.
In Venezuela, Zimbabwe or Romania in 1989, the economic carnage was devastating — but the state didn’t collapse until soldiers or police refused to shoot. Only then did power actually slip away.
In Iran today, something unusual happened: a key intelligence branch signaled unrest inside the military ranks — something not seen in protests of 2009, 2019 or 2022 — and then quickly withdrew the statement. That’s a sign of internal strain.
At almost the same time, reports say Tehran has brought in thousands of foreign militia fighters — partly because its own security forces are unwilling or insufficient to contain protests alone. External guns filling internal gaps is a sign of reluctance, not control.
When a government must pay outsiders to do what its own forces won’t, the usual mechanism of repression is breaking.
This isn’t about slogans or geopolitics — it’s about the essential machinery of power: who is willing to pull the trigger.
Regimes don’t die because money vanishes. They die when the people with guns stop enforcing them.
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🚨 IRAN: Everyone is watching the wrong variable.
Five banks collapsing. Rial down 80%. Inflation at 52%.
None of it matters.
Venezuela survived 130,000% hyperinflation. GDP collapsed 80%. Maduro survived — until Trump removed him by force.
Romania 1989: Army refused to fire. Ceaușescu executed 10 days later.
Authoritarian regimes don’t fall when economies collapse.
They fall when security forces stop shooting.
On January 9, IRGC Intelligence admitted they’re “dealing with possible acts of abandonment” in military ranks.
Then deleted it.
This has never happened. Not in 2009. Not in 2019. Not in 2022.
Here’s what that admission forced:
The regime imported 5,000 foreign fighters — Lebanese Hezbollah, Iraqi Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, Sayyid al-Shuhada, Afghan Fatemiyoun — to massacre Iranian citizens.
Five thousand Arab and Afghan mercenaries. Paid to shoot Iranians. Because Iranians won’t shoot Iranians anymore.
When your Islamic Revolution requires Iraqi death squads to survive, the revolution is already dead.
121 security forces killed by protesters. IRGC retreated from six cities. Artesh refused to commit to firing on demonstrators.
Death toll: 2,571 verified to 12,000+ per leaked Supreme National Security Council documents. Three weeks. All 31 provinces. DShK machine guns against crowds.
Judiciary Chief on camera: “If we want to do something, we have to do it fast.”
They’re executing protesters without trials. Charging them with “enmity against God.”
Meanwhile:
USS Abraham Lincoln left the South China Sea. Five days from the Gulf.
Netanyahu’s “Wing of Zion” landed in Crete — same pattern preceding the last three Israeli strikes.
Al Udeid ordered partial evacuation.
Trump canceled talks with Tehran: “Help is on the way.”
Khamenei has Moscow escape plans ready. Twenty aides. $95 billion positioned.
When the Supreme Leader has packed his bags, why should a Basij militiaman die so Iraqi mercenaries can hold Isfahan?
Romania took 72 hours from army wavering to regime collapse.
The IRGC just admitted wavering exists.
The carrier is en route.
5,000 foreign guns are doing what Iranian guns refused to do.
90 days.
Clock starts now. Read the full story!
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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