ftrpoly

PTJ still got it

@TRAVmoneyofmine @prpl8 Until they use AGI to solve energy

Demand goes to infinity. Energy supply can't go to infinity. Do you really need a yr 8 supply-demand chart drawn? Long energy and chill

@based16z Fun corollary I just thought of to this is say the coin is heads the first two flips. What % of your port would you bet on P(Heads)>50

@based16z @thedigipo Yea exactly if someone told you a coin is rigged but they didn’t know how and flipped it in the air, you are both indifferent between calling heads and tails. No info about how it is rigged makes it equivalent to a normal 50/50 coin in this case

@based16z @thedigipo If neither person has any info about the probability of heads, then doing just a normal flip would be “fair”. If P(heads) in the rigged coin is a random unknown variable, whoever chooses heads has an equal chance of on the disadvantaged side as being on the advantaged side

Only way to limit coming AI backlash is to start shifting taxes from labor to compute. The average voter needs to see salient benefits from AI. Today we tax labor > compute (income vs corp tax, depreciation for machines not education, payroll tax, etc). This will have to invert.

BREAKING: Airstrikes have just targeted Fajr Petrochemical Complex in Iran the first energy site to be targeted today.

Over the weekend a large US military operation was launched inside Iran, close to where some believe the 60 percent enriched uranium is stored. The stated goal was to retrieve F-15 pilots who were shot down in the area. But nothing at all adds up. Did the CIA or Mossad or someone else convince the US President that he could snatch Iran's uranium like he snatched Maduro out of Venezuela? Whatever the case, the operation was a spectacular failure, with at least six US military aircraft shot down. Will we learn the truth about what happened? Watch @RonPaul & @DanielLMcAdams below:

idk my bear case is 100$ oil forever

The OAI 862 short vs Ant 380b long is the most obvious private mark spreader of all time Everyone knows it hence why nothing is moving at those numbers. Matter of time Ant goes up hard. SpaceX went up 750b on what? Fake Space DC? This should double easy

>8% of Saudi oil output on fire "what if trump tacos and there's a ceasefire"

iran thoughts: flipped on ceasefire pretty well last night. sold my Y at 5.5c, 19c, 29c, and 46c respectively. i was away at an easter party all day so i missed the perfect exit :( am big on N for april 15 atm. i don’t think iran is ready to let trump leave just yet, at least not without getting more than trump’s able to offer right now. but i am still a fan of the longer dated strikes for Y (may); i think this weekend did show that there is willingness to end this from both parties, and even if these negotiations fail, the fv for those dates isn’t affected much (there’s a small chance it increases tbh) also kinda off topic but in general a lot of ppl are biased either by antisemitism or by the way the war began (the reason doesn’t really matter) and are overpricing israel’s role in ending the war. yes, they will be included in a ceasefire but they don’t really have much of a say in it. if trump tells israel to stop they will oblige… so ppl telling you “muh a ceasefire will take a long time because le regional players!” are wrong

Family seafood biz started a fuel surcharge today… first time that I can remember this happening

@denizz_poly @IvanCryptoSlav Axios runs a fake ceasefire headline 3x per week lmao @denizz_poly

Plausible proposals circulating (moreso Axios than Reuters) Iran might reasonably see this as a decent lower risk exit point, before having their infrastructure wrecked Any time is a good time to stop the daily beatings Probably they wouldn't give Trump satisfaction of deal strictly following his deadline tho

@citrini you are so cracked dude

Couple higher conviction views of informed parties in the Gulf: 1) The US will launch a ground operation within the next week or so, as evidenced by much higher troop numbers than reported in the UAE with numbers recently accelerating. 2) Even considering the above, traffic through the Strait will continue to rise. Gradually and dependent on developments, but it will not go back to being fully closed as it was before the Larak channel opened up. Countries will continue making deals. 3) Hormuz fried chicken is 5/5 stars.

@0xMerp that's why i had to play 20 thousand of them lol

Poker tournaments are basically just skill based lotteries

@TheSpeculator0 trash UI

polymarkets own pnl UI is like 10 hours delayed. really dude

Took profits here and sold my Y shares around 82c for a ~$10k gain. Market pumped on the news of rescue operation to save the downed pilots, so now the market is more of a resolution market imo, where I don't have a strong opinion/don't think I have much edge. Somewhat lucky result for another 5 figure day.

@penguin_pmkt Ice cold take brother