Greg Canavan

“If you don’t know who you are, this is an expensive place to find out.” Adam Smith - The Money Game

Straight after the Federal Budget One Nation had more primary support (32%) than ALP (28.5%) roymorgan.com/findings/10221…

Australian Monopoly 🇦🇺

@SantiagoAuFund She sells sanctuary. 💪💪💪

Top 3: Sweet Child O’ Mine She sells Sanctuary Baba O’ Riley

Libs growing a pair

lol My mates and I are doctors in our 20s/30s/40s starting off our careers. Absolutely everyone is gobsmacked at the budget changes. Genuinely feels like our generation will get punished for working smart or hard. None of us own investment properties yet - what’s the point now? How do we get ahead now? What was the financial incentive to sacrifice our 20s to train? It feels like all the worst aspects of communism with none of the benefits….. No incentivised housing/travel/childcare for doctors No one in my group is having kids Yet our alcoholic patients are on their 4th or 5th - supported via government programs What a joke Speedrunning civilisational demise

US EMERGENCY OIL STOCKPILE SEES RECORD DRAWDOWN The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 8.6 million barrels last week, the largest weekly drop on record, as the Trump administration responds to ongoing energy market stress. The drawdown surpasses the previous record set under President Biden in 2022 and leaves emergency crude reserves at their lowest level since October 2024. Commercial crude and gasoline inventories also declined sharply amid continued disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure and strong export demand. Analysts warn the U.S. is entering peak summer driving season with unusually tight fuel supplies and little room for further shocks.

So, again, this is just shouting into a void. But this is the most new lows within the S&P 500 $SPY on a day the index poked above a prior all-time closing high. Ever. Like EVER, ever.

@MrNobod35717073 @peaceitw To really reform housing prices you'd need a land lax and equivalent reduction in income tax. That would take the speculation out of land and increase investment elsewhere and therefore productivity.

@gcanavan2 @peaceitw For some people it suck & economic weakness I remember in 2015 you said you agreed with the new laws for CGT ,only new or existing homes already bought Do you still like this policy ? Or is it the other assets effected by this bill you dont like? Like investing long in market

Aussie 10-yr bond yield almost 5.1% now. Cheers Jim.

@MrNobod35717073 @peaceitw Fair enough. 6-7% bond yields when the economy is strong and inflation contained is fine. But 6-7% yields when real growth below 2% is not good at all.

@gcanavan2 @peaceitw will be for people in cash , rates a consequence if they did not raise when things went wrong what will fix it ? cant wait till there 7% if thats the lesson that needs to be taught

@peaceitw That would not be good.

@gcanavan2 Need to to go 6%

@darrenrrrrr yep

@gcanavan2 will we still be able to claim a capital loss on investments ?

This budget takes the idea of inter-generational fairness and blows it to pieces... Young people slugged a minimum 30% tax on capital gains, even low income earners, while pensioners are entirely immune. That is the complete opposite.

@OMGwen3rds8 If it’s any consolation they will lose the next election.

@gcanavan2 Greg I can't afford a home and now even the stock market can't help me. What should I do?

Absolute shocker of a budget. Taxing our way to prosperity. Lol. The economy gets worse in next 12 months because people know what’s coming.

'We're giving you' (a tiny bit of your money back)

'Intergeneration all equity'. The fucking idiots can't even spell check the AI print out properly. God help us.

Druckenmiller was asked what separates great investors from everyone else. His answer had nothing to do with intelligence. First: extreme passion. You cannot compete against people who love this business if you don't love it. They will outwork you, outthink you and outcompete you. Second: competitiveness. They have to be sore losers. They have to want to win badly enough that losing is genuinely painful. Then he got to the part most people get wrong. "I haven't even gotten to IQ yet. Anything over 125 or 130 doesn't help you. It's largely superfluous." Beyond a baseline, intelligence stops mattering. The edge is elsewhere. Third: ego that gets checked at the door. You can have one but you cannot let it anchor you to a position. The market does not care what you think you know. When things happen that you didn't anticipate and they always will, you have to be able to change your mind without inventing reasons to stay. Fourth, and the one most people never master: think against the crowd. "If you're in the crowd, those positions are already owned by everyone. It's not easy to fight your emotions and go against the crowd, but that is a big piece of it." Passion. Competitiveness. Humility. Independent thinking. Just those four things, done consistently for decades.

The single biggest winner from the budget: the tax-free owner-occupied home, which is where people will put their money. After the budget doubles the capital gains tax on productive businesses/assets from circa 23.5% to 46-47%, investors will understandably pull money from businesses, shares, commercial property and rental housing and plough it into their tax-free owner-occupied home. It's a great way to push up the prices of these houses. On the other hand, cutting negative gearing while also doubling CGT makes investing in rental properties extremely unattractive. It hammers the capital gain upside on any asset: shares, commercial property, the small or medium sized business you built, venture capital and private equity. It will give Australia the most unattractive capital gains tax in the WORLD (see table below)! So the government's policies will (1) push up owner-occupied house prices, (2) push up rents, and (3) reduce the capital available for investing in any small, medium or large sized business that is driving employment, innovation, growth and productivity/prosperity. Investors will go to other countries where they pay half the capital gains tax, or less. Since these pollies have never worked a day of their lives in the private sector, it is no surprise that when they decide to completely and unilaterally rewrite the entire tax system for all investors and businesses -- after promising before the last election more than 50 times NOT to change the capital gains tax and negative gearing rules -- that they would blow the entire Aussie economy up... Your best bet will be to buy a house, live in it, and hope they keep dropping 500,000 new people into the country every year to pump-up prices...

WALL STREET'S FATAL MISCALCULATION: WHY OIL PRICES REFUSE TO PRICE IN REALITY Legendary commodities expert Jeff Currie just laid out the uncomfortable truth. Every analyst he speaks with calls the current disruptions unprecedented across supply chains. Yet oil and other commodity prices remain strangely calm, as if none of it matters. The market's dangerous disconnect comes down to flawed assumptions and short-term thinking that could soon prove catastrophic. THE HISTORICAL BLIND SPOT ➡️ Most traders active today have never witnessed a disruption of this magnitude. ➡️ Today’s market participants and traders have never experienced anything like this before and are therefore in the dark. ➡️ You must go back to the 1970s and 80s to grasp the true potential impact. THE DEFICIT NOT SHORTAGE ILLUSION ➡️ Right now we face a deficit where demand exceeds supply and inventories are being drawn down fast. ➡️ Nothing has actually run out yet, so everything still feels fine on the surface. ➡️ Currie compares it perfectly to the Jaws scene where the mayor declares the beaches open while the shark still lurks in the water. THE VOLUMETRIC REALITY CHECK ➡️ Macro analysts focus solely on oil's tiny share of global GDP and its notional dollar value. ➡️ They claim price spikes simply do not matter from that narrow perspective. ➡️ But commodities experts measure in actual volumes: millions of barrels per day or metric tons. THE POWERFUL ANALOGY ➡️ Spend $100 million on a luxury diamond necklace for one rich buyer and the system barely notices. ➡️ Hand that same $100 million to low-income families buying basic goods like corn and the volumetric stress on supply chains becomes enormous. ➡️ Who spends the money and how determines the real economic impact, not the headline price tag. THE COMMODITY VERSUS MACRO DIVIDE ➡️ Commodity specialists warned early in COVID that a big problem was building. ➡️ Macro and finance voices dismissed it completely at the time. ➡️ Then inflation exploded over 10 percent year-over-year, proving the volumetric warnings right once again. THE BOTTOM LINE Markets are discounting this crisis because of recency bias, surface-level notional metrics, and a total failure to respect volumetric shocks that actually move the real economy. The calm you see today is simply the quiet before inventories run dry and reality hits hard. HT: YouTube Mario Nawfal #OilShock #MarketBlindSpot #JeffCurrie #CommodityCrisis #VolumetricImpact #EnergyDeficit #SupplyChainReality